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UK FSD
- Thread starter neilrlsmith
- Start date
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
You may well be right, but Tesla are saying "Feature complete by end of year" acknowledging that timescale is tight, so lets say "middle of next year". They define that as FSD but driver having to supervise at all times.
Then they say next year for "by itself". OK, let's call that 2021.
Regulator is a different timescale of course ... but not in their interest to delay (I know Tesla's figures are skewed, eg. AP only realistically used on dual carriageway, and those roads safer than "national average", but Tesla's latest quarter accident report is 9x fewer accidents on AP compared to national average ... so its not "nothing", [and has improved quarter-on-quarter over time], and regulators won't want to be accused of ignoring that ...)
Even if Tesla miss those deadlines its still "quite soon", probably in the ownership period for anyone buying a car recently/now.
But ... my crystal ball has been wrong before ...
They have done in the past. "Fire sale preceded by try-before-you-buy"
They have done a trial offer in the past, probably a couple of years ago. As I remember it came up on the car screen, it might have been less than a month though. Then at the end of the trial you could just tap to buy.
Presumably if this increased FSD uptake, they will do it again.
I really want to believe that it will be out and working safely within a year or two.
But progress just seems to be so slow. I’ve followed the progress of Elon and Tesla for six or seven years now, and so many times he’s said that it’s almost ready, and in a few months time there will be a coast to coast demo, etc etc, but the time never seems to arrive.
Now I own a Tesla, I love AP on motorways and dual carriageways. Even in its current form it is more useful than the TACC/LKA on the Kona or the current Leaf. I can use it reliably on many more roads where the others just gave up. But it is still dangerously buggy - phantom braking as you pass traffic, hard braking if a car in front goes off at the exit, it gives up completely in heavy rain, if it’s too sunny the side cameras don’t work...
It’s also getting to the stage where the price Tesla charges for what you’re getting is becoming silly. If Elon ramps up the price, I can see fewer and fewer people stumping up the cash for FSD.
'Feature complete' means what? It's a meaningless term that I interpret as Tesla grabbing FSD funds they've been holding. It was going to be city driving, traffic lights and roundabouts but that got dropped. To a point where FSD can make any trip and the driver is just there as a safety driver not expected to do anything is years away - the car doesn't look far enough ahead has rudimentary anticipation, doesn't read vehicle indicators (yet) and certainly doesn't accept a wave through from another driver.
He outlines in some detail what he thinks it means to be feature complete is in the earnings call from a couple days back...
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Elon R. Musk -- Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Yeah, feature-complete, I mean, it's -- the car is able to drive from one's house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive -- it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy -- low speed autonomy with Summon. You've got high-speed autonomy on the highway, and intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs.
So feature-complete means it's most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised. And I've gone through this timeline before several times, but it is often misconstrued that there's three major levels to autonomy. There's the car being able to be autonomous, but requiring supervision and intervention at times. That's feature complete. Then there's -- and it doesn't mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth, including ever corner case, it just means most of the time.
And then, there's another level which is that we think it's -- that from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision. Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are three different levels.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
I agree, but improvements in AI can be exponential, so past performance may not be a good indicator of future delivery ... but Elon Time is massively optimistic. Toss-a-coin I reckon
One theory I have heard is that they are trialling this, but each time they have a number of "disconnects". They have to get coast-to-coast with no disconnects ... so might be they are attempting this regularly, and failing on one or two disconnects ... or a hundred or two!
I'm also not sure what would happen regard charging. "snake robots" have been previewed which can plug in ... they are clearly not yet installed at Superchargers. Maybe a valid "coast to coast test" would be
#1 Take the OFF ramp
#2 Drive to parking lot
#3 Park in a stall (to allow manual plug-in)
Any of those would be impressive to me (i.e. with zero disconnects), #3 being "done".
If they are at #3 with some annoying disconnect each test then "nearly there". But Tesla are, presumably, not going to tell us if they are close, only when success
If I could send my car to pick up my ageing father-in-law (rural area, I'd prefer he wasn't driving any more ...) I'd be thrilled. Not sure how he would feel about it!
As I understand Elons "Feature complete" definition that part is OK
I'd be seriously impressed if it could navigate the 3 miles to my house along a single track road avoiding sheep, squirrels, badgers, rabbits and pheasants and reverse into a gate or tiny passing area to let a tractor past - never going to happen.
And after the first kiddie runs into a roadway after his football the AI will be blamed even if a human would have hit him too
Completely agree. I think the only solution will come when all cars on the road are "smart" and can effectively coordinate with each other to make these allowances. Until then the human is going to have an unassailable advantage.
"If you wish priority at the next crossing please upgrade to our premium package"
"I'm sorry, you must disable ad-blocker to turn right"
"Traffic ahead is queuing. Pull into fleet services for a refreshing overpriced cup of disgusting Starbucks coffee. Today's special includes two for one on fast lane access"
Oh God yes, I never thought of the commercial opportunities!
The police will zip through because all our cars will pull over automatically ... well, at least until the cop car has a phantom braking issue and smacks his head on the windscreen!
MrBadger
Badger out
This is scary cause its true.
These features really could be abused couldn't they?
Elon seems pretty anti advertising in general so as long as he is in charge hopefully this dystopian future doesn't come to pass... but yeah... I never thought of it like that!
Elon doesn't like paying for advertising - not the same as not liking selling it. Does he get a kickback from Netflix or Spotify??? I dunno but he does have the potential for a huge bot-net. Just another conspiracy theory...
Well - depends if you believe what he says or not.
In the earning call this week he specifically called out shady advertising tactics as being immoral and not something Tesla would ever resort to.
Not that they would never advertise at all... but if they did it would only be in an information sharing kind of way.
