Very helpful, thanks! Unfortunately looks like there isn't a single MR with white interior in stock out of the 1,750 2019 MRs
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Unsold Model 3 sitting in lot awaiting buyers?
- Thread starter Billyk24
- Start date
If there are really 10,000 cars in stock, that's at least $430M worth of inventory!!!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So...less than 1 week of factory output at this point (if the reports from a few days ago of hitting over 8k/wk in Freemont are accurate)....
I would've expected a massively higher # sitting around on lots if demand had really dropped off massively as some have suggested in the thread.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I'll be honest - I don't think demand dropped 1/1/19 like some predicted. I know that for me, it hasn't. I'm hamstrung by a late 2019 lease end date on my current vehicle, but when that expires, I see a Model 3 in my future.
There's plenty of pent up demand still... and the launch of the Model Y and the pickup are just going to accelerate. In an ideal world, I'd get a 3-year lease on a Model 3 LR with white interior and EAP. That'll tide me over until the Model Y form factor hits the market; at which time I'd just buy outright instead of lease.
Current factory output is 100% spec'd for Europe. They're all rolling out with CCS plugs right now, which don't do us a lot of good here in the US of A. March or April, I'd expect output to swing back to US-spec Model 3's. We'll see I guess!
The inventory is not perfectly balanced. E.g. there are more than 900 black Lemurs with black interior and only 24 black Lemurs with white interior. And then all of the few white interiors have 19-inch wheels.
Demand is down to the sustainable rate (2k/wk). InsideEV published 6500 M3's in Jan. They've had these cars sitting around for six weeks now.
One interesting fact- of the 3000 or so cars in inventory on Jan 1, only about 1200 have been sold in 6 weeks.
Also, the list above is only a partial inventory list. If you actually walk around the lots, you'll see VINs not listed in inventory. Some of those are demos/service, but many are clearly new vehicles not listed in inventory for whatever reason.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
Did insider sources give you this information or is this a best guess?
I'm not hovering over lots with drones or other stupid c**p. Was just surprised to see that any combination was available in a week.
That is not a bad thing, as I believe traditional dealers have the advantage of availability. Some buyers will always want to see their car
before they buy it. It just brings up the demand question. The plan was to produce 10k per week over the previous 8 months, but they have
averaged less than 5... and have an inventory. How man non wait list orders are they getting every week?
I basically did what one critical article described... put in zip code and multiple designs, multiple colors. Every delivery was February.
I'm not hovering over lots with drones or other stupid c**p. Was just surprised to see that any combination was available in a week.
That is not a bad thing, as I believe traditional dealers have the advantage of availability. Some buyers will always want to see their car
before they buy it. It just brings up the demand question. The plan was to produce 10k per week over the previous 8 months, but they have
averaged less than 5... and have an inventory. How man non wait list orders are they getting every week?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This is FUD. The production over the last 8 months is not relevant to current numbers being cited. Tesla's production has increased substantially since June. How else do you think they've managed to put 10's of thousands on ships destined for Europe and China and yet still managed to have a decent selection available in most areas of North America?
It would be nice if they could have a bigger buffer and more selection of domestic cars but there are hundreds of thousands of patient Europeans and Chinese who still don't have their own Model 3. And it costs Tesla money to have excessive domestic stock. They are pumping them out as fast as possible so they can fill up more ships bringing them overseas.
From Feb 1st until today ca 500 vehicles have been added to the inventory, most of them (350) being produced in 2018. Nearly all of them have quite some miles on their odometer and are being discounted. I guess these are demo cars or so.
2200 cars have been removed from the inventory (1200 from 2018, 900 from 2019), I guess most of them have been sold. I might have missed some inventory cars, so in total probably more than 3000 cars sold in February until today.
2200 cars have been removed from the inventory (1200 from 2018, 900 from 2019), I guess most of them have been sold. I might have missed some inventory cars, so in total probably more than 3000 cars sold in February until today.
I have a list here: Tesla Model 3s in Inventory as of Feb 19, 2019
Wow. If they haven't been building North American cars since the end of 2018 how do they have that much inventory now? Might be time to mark them down to 35K HaHaHa
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not sure what you mean by "that much"?
The list shows less than 2 weeks of factory production is available.
Which means they're probably going to be switching the factory back to mainly US production soon.
Which, as it happens, is supported by Tesla having just registered a large # of new US-model VINs.
Tesla's nearly 300k Model 3 VIN registrations hint at healthy US demand
Which wouldn't be needed if they weren't about to need more US production soon.
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We are 7 weeks into 2019. If no US spec model three's have been built since 2018, sales must be really week. It may be 2 weeks production but how many weeks of sales?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
First- everybodys US sales suck in January compared to December...industry-wide they're usually down half a million to a million sales from December to January.... happened this year, happened last year, happened the year before, etc... usually they don't start picking up again for a couple months (be it paying off xmas, people finally getting tax refunds, whatever).
So it'd make sense for them to do the overseas production/launch in this period.
Second-
Where are we getting that ALL factory production is going to europe?
Tesla is going to ship 3,000 Model 3’s per week in Europe starting in February, report says
This story says about 3k a week are going to Europe, with the rest staying in the US (though it's possible certain configs are only going to europe or something).
So if they built up inventory before switching a chunk of production to european models, and are still producing a couple thousand US models a week, not sure how we conclude sales in the US have cratered? (though I'm sure they're lower in January than December- as is true industry-wise, and even moreso in a niche where the tax credit dropped in between)
