US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[RobStark]

Q2 2022 Kelley Blue Book Brand Watch Luxury Report: BMW on Top, Luxury Cars Gain Share, Rivian Arrives, and, SURPRISE!, Volvo not #1 in Safety - Cox Automotive Inc.

BMW remained the most-shopped luxury brand for the second consecutive quarter on increased interest in its sedans, likely due to high gas prices, according to the Q2 2022 Kelley Blue Book Brand Watch™ report. Overall, shopping for luxury cars increased due to high fuel costs and better...

www.coxautoinc.com

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Honda, LG announce $4.4 billion US battery factory for EVs

Honda has struck a deal with Korean battery giant LG Energy Solution to build a $4.4 billion US factory to supply its electric vehicles.

www.cnn.com

 

[RobStark]

Fully Electric Vehicles Reached ~6% Of Auto Sales In USA In 3rd Quarter

6% of US auto sales is up from EVs' 2.2% of US auto sales in Q3 2020.

cleantechnica.com

 

[RobStark]

 

[Electroman]

View attachment 868034

Is that YTD? or for all years cumulatively?

1.3M ZEVs doesn't seem YTD. On the other hand 17.7% of new cars sold, is definitely not all time. So I am confused.

 

[RobStark]

Is that YTD? or for all years cumulatively?

1.3M ZEVs doesn't seem YTD. On the other hand 17.7% of new cars sold, is definitely not all time. So I am confused.

17.7% specifically refers to new cars.

1.3M doesn't mention new cars. All time.

California buys 1.6M-2M cars annually.

 

[RobStark]

California Q3 YTD 2022 Registrations

Tesla still #2 CA automaker ahead of General Motors( Chevrolet+GMC+Cadillac+Buick) !!!

Brand..................CA 2022 YTD.................................... % Share

1. Toyota........216,500 ...........,..........................17.4
2. Tesla.........133,545......................................10.7
3. Ford...........105,894...........................................8.5
4. Honda........97,639.........................................7.8
5. Chevrolet...82,928..........................................6.7
6. KIA.............60,344............................................4.8
7. Merc Benz..55,366..........................................4.4
8. Nissan........55,077..........................................4.4
9. Subaru......48,086............................................3.9
10. Hyundai......47,776...........................................3.8
11. BMW..........45,228............................................3.6
12. Lexus..........37,657..........................................3.0
13. Jeep............36,007..........................................2.9
14. RAM...........30,233...........................................2.4
15. Volkswagen..25,663........................................2.1
16. Mazda..........25,134.........................................2.0
17. Audi..............23,891.........................................1.9
18. GMC.............23,880..........................................1.9
19. Dodge..........14,667...........................................1.2
20. Porsche........11,451...........................................0.9
21. Acura ...........9,055...........................................0.7
22. Volvo.............8,506..........................................0.7
23. Chrysler........8,081..........................................0.6
24. Cadillac.........7,612..........................................0.6
25. Land Rover ..7,321.........................................0.6
26. Genesis.........5,306...........................................0.4
27. Mitsubishi.....3,574..........................................0.3
28. Infiniti............3,525..........................................0.3
29. Mini...............3,735..........................................0.3
30. Lincoln..........3,045...........................................0.2
31. Buick...............2,442..........................................0.2
32. Alfa Romeo....1,757........................................0.1
33. Jaguar...........1,113...............................................0.1
34. Other..............2,782..........................................0.2

Total...........................1,245,748................................100

Tesla holds steady at 10.7%.
General Motors and Ford Group passes Honda Group.
Kia and Mercedes Benz pass Nissan. Nissan + Infiniti still ahead of Mercedes Benz.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Covering-3Q-22_FINAL.pdf

 

[RobStark]

In Greater Los Angeles you can get $25k off MSRP on a top trim fuel cell Mirai or $17k off the base model.

Volvo is offering deals on ICEv and PHEVs.

GM is offering deals on the Bolt hatchback but not the crossover version.

The auto market is transitioning from a sellers market to a buyers market.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[petit_bateau]

View attachment 879877

View attachment 879878

Is it me or are Toyota/Honda conversions up and BMW/Audi/Mercedes conversions down ?

 

[Sancho]

View attachment 879877

View attachment 879878

The 86% share that Tesla has of the luxury EV market is stunning, and the most important statistic. It's unclear whether Tesla will ever try to compete in the non luxury segment (with a rumored Model 2), but regardless, the profit per car in this segment of the market is slim. The real money is made in the luxury segment (which also remarkably, Tesla is expanding as demonstrated in your Tesla Conquests chart).

So yes, as EVs take over the auto market, Tesla's share of the EV market will drop significantly. But if its share of the luxury EV market stays anywhere near this high, and it continues to expand the luxury segment with former Toyota and Honda customers,Tesla's future is amazingly bright.

Is there any luxury EV other than Tesla that is starting to get any sales traction?

 

[petit_bateau]

The 86% share that Tesla has of the luxury EV market is stunning, and the most important statistic. It's unclear whether Tesla will ever try to compete in the non luxury segment (with a rumored Model 2), but regardless, the profit per car in this segment of the market is slim. The real money is made in the luxury segment (which also remarkably, Tesla is expanding as demonstrated in your Tesla Conquests chart).

So yes, as EVs take over the auto market, Tesla's share of the EV market will drop significantly. But if its share of the luxury EV market stays anywhere near this high, and it continues to expand the luxury segment with former Toyota and Honda customers,Tesla's future is amazingly bright.

Is there any luxury EV other than Tesla that is starting to get any sales traction?

Tesla has also redefined 'luxury' in such a way as to expand the addressable market size :

- stripped down minimalist interior experience : less weight, less dead skin, more light, volume, reduced NVH, better safety, etc;
- replaced & improved by a fully-integrated software experience : the true luxury;
- that gets OTA updates through life so as to remain ever-fresh and improving;
- and a useful vehicle life that is (thus far) extended, and in such a way that the maintenance-cost-intensive phase is very much pushed rightwards;
- meaning that the vehicle itself remains a 'luxury' experience for more years of its lengthened life;
- and at a lower fuelling (energy) cost;
- with a 'gated community' of Supercharger locations;
- which motivates more people to pay to enter the 'luxury' market segment whether in the new market or the second-hand market;
- hence Tesla's stunning market share numbers.

Having said that, Tesla's mission is not to save the luxury vehicle market. Rather it is to make transportation renewable. So at some point Tesla will launch a model 2/Z/etc as that is what it will take to address the mass market outside of North America. But when it does so I think we will all look at the 2/Z/etc and realise that they further redefine 'luxury'. And my personal guess is that will have further ramifications in the US market which is the subject of this thread.

 

[RobStark]

Inventory Continues To Rise, Hits 1.61 Million - Public News Time

U.S. vehicle inventory continued to recover from historic lows, rising another 150,000 vehicles to 1.61 million, according to data from Cox Automotive and the

publicnewstime.com

 

[RobStark]

US: All-Electric Car Registrations Exceeded 600,000 By End Of October 2022

Sales of all-electric cars in the US accelerate, which translates into a gradually increasing market share.

insideevs.com

BEV market share Oct YTD is 5.3% vs 2.9% last year.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

View attachment 894670

They really should make the list in terms of revenue, since "luxury" is subjective. With that kind of list, I think Tesla stands a chance at being the top brand this year.

 

[RobStark]

They really should make the list in terms of revenue, since "luxury" is subjective. With that kind of list, I think Tesla stands a chance at being the top brand this year.

The list isn't a matter of life and death. These list don't have to be objective.

But most people agree that car brands that sell cars at a premium vs similar cars on the market because they have lower NVH, more horsepower/acceleration, tech, leather and/or wood veneers are "luxury."

Anybody can make any such list they want.

You can make a list and infographic measuring car brands by revenue.