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US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

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Other is about to get a lot bigger slice o pie! Looking forward to the 2018 update.
 
InsideEV's Telsa sales for July : 1425S and 1650X. Those are really strong numbers for the first month of a quarter. Europe is also of to a reasonably good start. We are all set for a new delivery record this quarter. With a little post-3-reveal bump in S inventory sales, I still feel good about my 30k guess.
 
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I don't recall exactly how many of this 1/2 year's 47,000+ cars were for the US, but let's say 25,000. That means the rest of automakers sold about 30,000. Double that for the year, so Tesla at 50,000 S+X and say 20,000 3, and the rest of the automakers at 60,000. So Tesla would be at about 55%, about 70,000 of about 130,000.

Then go to 2018 and imagine 50,000 S+X (may be less), say 350,000 3 (start January at 5,000/week, end December at 10,000/week) and lets say the rest of the automakers get their act together for 100,000. Tesla is at 80%.

Giddy up.
 
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2017 YTD June California Market Annual Totals

"Luxury & High End Sports Cars"

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Mercedes E-Class.... 5971........... ..16.9
Tesla Model S ..........5832..............16.5
BMW 5-Series .........3985 .............11.3
Mercedes S-Class.. 1983.............. 5.6
Audi A6................... 1552 ...............4.4

Luxury Mid Size SUV

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Lexus RX ................9158 ..............21.8
Mercedes GLE....... 4966 .............11.8
BMW X5................. 4470 .............10.7
Acura MDX............. 3636.............. 8.7
Tesla Model X ........3200 ..............7.6

* Mercedes also include M Class.
** IMO Neither Lexus RX nor Acura MDX belongs in the same class as GLE,X5 or Model X but this is the way CNCDA categorizes them.

Tesla has .9% overall California Automotive Market share, up .1% vs last year.

Pure BEVs have registered a total 25,632 vehicles for a total 2.5% 2017 YTD market share.

PHEVs have registered a total of 21,065 vehicles for a total of 2.1% 2017 YTD market share.

Chevy Bolt has registered 5,169 vehicles for a 10.9% market share and 4th place in the subcompact car class.

http://cncda.org/CMS/Slides/Auto Outlook CA 2017 Q2.pdf
 
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2017 YTD September California Market Annual Totals

"Luxury & High End Sports Cars"

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Mercedes E-Class.... 8791........... ..16.7
Tesla Model S ..........8634..............16.4
BMW 5-Series ..........6352 .............12.1
Mercedes S-Class... 2770.............. 5.3
Audi A6.................... 2287 ..............4.3

Luxury Mid Size SUV

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Lexus RX ...............14,775 ..........22.8
Mercedes GLE....... 7213 .............11.1
BMW X5................. 6546 .............10.1
Acura MDX............. 5847.............. 9.0
Tesla Model X ........4866 ..............7.5

* Mercedes also include M Class.
** IMO Neither Lexus RX nor Acura MDX belongs in the same class as GLE,X5 or Model X but this is the way CNCDA categorizes them.

Tesla has .9% overall California Automotive Market share, up .1% vs last year.

Pure BEVs have registered a total 38,428 vehicles for a total 2.5% 2017 YTD market share.

PHEVs have registered a total of 31,605 vehicles for a total of 2.0% 2017 YTD market share.

Chevy Bolt has registered 8,947 vehicles for a 12.8% market share and 3rd place in the subcompact car class.

http://cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal Covering 3Q 17.pdf
 
It looks like a potential record delivery Q for Europe.

However...
I looked through model S google spreadsheet. Essentially, no VIN, except for one, was issued after 11/11. In the meantime, very few 2018 entries yet.

Any idea why?

Because they have already enough customized orders for this Q? But why no entries for next Q?
Because of the 200K cap of the US federal tax incentives? So they concentrate on M3?
Because they are too focused on M3?
 
2017 California Market Annual Totals

"Luxury & High End Sports Cars"

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Mercedes E-Class.... 12326........... ..16.6
Tesla Model S ..........11813..............16.0
BMW 5-Series ..........10031 .............13,6
Mercedes S-Class... 4053................ 5.5
Audi A6.................... 3090 ................4.2

Luxury Mid Size SUV

Model....................Registrations...Market Share %
Lexus RX ...............21019 .............23.0
Mercedes GLE....... 10279 ............11.2
BMW X5................. 9502 .............10.4
Acura MDX............. 8449.............. 9.2
Tesla Model X ........6910 ..............7.6

* Mercedes also include M Class.
** IMO Neither Lexus RX nor Acura MDX belongs in the same class as GLE,X5 or Model X but this is the way CNCDA categorizes them.

Tesla has 1% overall California Automotive Market share, up .2% vs last year.

Pure BEVs have registered a total 53,549 vehicles for a total 2.6% 2017 market share.

PHEVs have registered a total of 44,962 vehicles for a total of 2.2% 2017 market share.

Chevy Bolt has registered 13,487 vehicles for a 14.7% market share and 1st place in the subcompact car class.

http://cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/California Covering 4Q 2017.pdf