Was just told that AP 2.0 won't get FSD.

[EVDRVN]

Even Tesla Autopilot team didn't agree to sell FSD when there's no scientific proof that the car could.

So they quit!

Elon Musk's Decision To Call Autopilot 2.0 "Full Self-Driving" Led To Resignation Of Autopilot Director?

However, I don't wait for validated certifications of FSD before buying it.

Very simple: I paid for it as a science fiction--a vision of future that are not successfully accomplished at present.

I'm not referring to people that are in your camp. You can burn money in a trash can if you like it has nothing to do with those that expect deliverables and seem to think unwritten promises are sufficient guarantees,.

 

[ChrML]

Even Tesla Autopilot team didn't agree to sell FSD when there's no scientific proof that the car could.

Let's not forget this previous autopilot director was the guy responsible for the wacky software before Karpathy came along and rewrote it.

He was obvious not qualified for the job, they made crap autopilot software, so with the bar now raised to FSD he had to quit.

 

[dhanson865]

see? you just keep asking someone else at tesla, and through all the wrong answers, someone will give you an answer you like. doesn't mean it's true. or correct. but hey, they will gladly take your money and good luck with that fake self driving thing.

Your post deserves either informative if you are right or funny if you are wrong (about self driving not happening for AP 2.0 cars). Heck, maybe it deserves both ratings.

If they put AP 3 computer in AP 2.0 cars I'm thinking FSD will be a thing on AP 2.0 cars. But then again we did have a partial refund on AP once already so I won't bet my life that something similar won't happen again.

 

[frenchie22]

I remember being told that AP 2.0 would definitely have FSD on my test drive.

 

[Tam]

I remember being told that AP 2.0 would definitely have FSD on my test drive.

It's no difference when SpaceX planned that Falcon 9 would get you to Mars.

But then they prefer the more expensive Falcon Heavy.

But now they are even more sure that the much more expensive BFR will now do the job.

In this case, when we want to pay for something unproven, it's best to do it early and fully before the more expensive hardware and plans are changed and finalized.

I am not sure about paying early for FSD because its price fluctuates up and down like a yo-yo.

 

[EVDRVN]

It's no difference when SpaceX planned that Falcon 9 would get you to Mars.

But then they prefer the more expensive Falcon Heavy.

But now they are even more sure that the much more expensive BFR will now do the job.

In this case, when we want to pay for something unproven, it's best to do it early and fully before the more expensive hardware and plans are changed and finalized.

I am not sure about paying early for FSD because its price fluctuates up and down like a yo-yo.

Can you please stop with the pointless analogies they don't apply to what people are saying. Your abstract points have no relevance to the consumer market only those wanting to make donations to Tesla. Please do so, helps my stock positions.

 

[Tam]

...Please do so, helps my stock positions.

Would you please expand on how I could help your stock positions?

Encourage people to buy FSD because it's a speculative buy for future that's not realized today?

Or

Discourage people to buy FSD because there's no point for buying something that is not working at present?

 

[EVDRVN]

Would you please expand on how I could help your stock positions?

Encourage people to buy FSD because it's a speculative buy for future that's not realized today?

Or

Discourage people to buy FSD because there's no point for buying something that is not working at present?

You are not addressing my points or anyone else's for that matter. Your responses are obscure so I am done relying. To answer you only direct question, revenue can help Tesla stock price.

 

[dhanson865]

revenue can help Tesla stock price.

Revenue from FSD is deferred. It's set aside in a special account and isn't usable by Tesla (doesn't help cash flow or profits). It stays deferred until Tesla delivers the first FSD feature on each car that has paid for it (for example if Model X with AP2.5 got a FSD feature first all the Model X 2.5 FSD money could be released but other vehicles FSD funds would remain deferred).

So if everyone on the planet that has a Tesla but hasn't paid for FSD went and ordered it today it wouldn't change the value of the company until Tesla releases new software and/or hardware that either doesn't exist yet or hasn't been enabled for general use.

You can see mention of this in the 8K where they say "We have yet to recognize a significant amount of deferred revenue from future functionalities related to Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability options" and you can listen to quarterly/annual calls where Deepak Ahuja or his replacement would discuss such. You can see in the financials how much money they have set aside for this and it's not a small amount.


edit: I don't see a strike through font option so I changed cash flow to size 1 text.

 

[Big Dog]

Revenue from FSD is deferred. It's set aside in a special account and isn't usable by Tesla (doesn't help cash flow or profits). It stays deferred until Tesla delivers the first FSD feature on each car that has paid for it (for example if Model X with AP2.5 got a FSD feature first all the Model X 2.5 FSD money could be released but other vehicles FSD funds would remain deferred).

It certainly does help cash flow; indeed, customer deposits are right on the Statement of Cash Flows (per GAAP). But you are correct that FSD deposits are not revenue nor profits.

 

[scottf200]

AP 2.0 will not have FSD. It must first be updated to AP 3.0(new X10 chip). Isn't that what Elon said?
Found a tweet.

 

[Tam]

...Revenue from FSD is deferred...

Very interesting! Thanks for the info.

Sounds like current re-pricing or re-classifying as AP/FSD rather than continuing selling as EAP/FSD could help to convert deferred to real revenue quicker.

With re-classified AP, it only needs 2 features to be fulfilled:

1) TACC
2) AutoSteer

While EAP and FSD have many more features to cover.

So, the question is can the new cash come from the new AP be considered real revenue because those 2 features are now active and functional?

Or

Must Tesla declare those 2 features are now no longer "beta" but they are final production products first before a Deferred to Real Revenue conversion could be made?

 

[scottf200]

...
Right now, AP3 (aka HW3) isn't in production.
...

Yesterday's news says it is: aph4 tesla hw3 - Google Search

 

[banned-66611]

Are they just talking about NOA, or the real FSD that was originally being sold (level 4+)?

 

[OPRCE]

For those with FSD option and HW2.5 there is no doubt at this stage that the free HW3 upgrade is coming as promised, but it seems Tesla has now started to refuse to sell the FSD option to those with HW2.0, as Engineering has decided that it will not [cannot?] be supported:

If so, does this mean those who have already paid for FSD on their HW2.0 car will not be receiving the free HW3 upgrade either?

And if that's the case, what is Tesla's solution for those customers?

 

[Troy]

This is big news if true.

I'm calculating 73,270 AP2.0 Model S/X sales. Based on my Model S/X Order Tracker spreadsheet, Full Self-Driving take rate was 23.7% for S/X before the recent discount. If we assume it increased to 28% because of the discount, that would be ~20,500 people. That's a lot of unhappy customers.

Hopefully, Tesla will at least try to make up for it. However, this is a big mess up on Tesla's part. FSD should have never been on sale before it was ready. From October 2016 to March 2019, they have completed 0% of FSD.

 

[N..8]

Troy, I suspect that the cost of upgrading 2.0 will be expensive. So I also believe that if you already have a 2.0 car with FSD purchased they will honor their contract but if you hadn't purchased it they will tell you no.

 

[Az_Rael]

Thread about this here on TMC from FB poster: Was just told that AP 2.0 won't get FSD.

Spoiler: Tesla added FSD to the 2.0 car for him.

 

[OPRCE]

Troy, I suspect that the cost of upgrading 2.0 will be expensive. So I also believe that if you already have a 2.0 car with FSD purchased they will honor their contract but if you hadn't purchased it they will tell you no.

Unfortunately that's not consistent with what the FaceBook post of Hkwinger Aaron reports: he was told "Tesla will only support FSD on HW2.5 vehicles" and "Fremont Engineering confirmed FSD will only be available on HW2.5 and beyond."

So it sounds like Tesla may soon be coming out with an announcement that they after all won't [be able to] honour their contract with HW2.0 & FSD customers.

 

[Mark_T]

I wouldn't assume anything beyond an inability to add FSD to a car with less than HW2.5 if you've not already added it.

That will not be welcome news to many who decided to wait, but I can see why Tesla wouldn't want to keep making that problem bigger than it already is.