WBAC Shock

[candida]

Ok I know this is a fool's game but my regular look at WBAC to see how long the crazy world of used car prices is holding up just brought me crashing back to earth - my 2020 M3P, 17000 miles, which 3 months ago was £48k, 2 weeks ago was £44k, is now £38k....

Even the Tesla trade in is now down to £40.5

Now I'm not saying that isn't in fact a pretty normal depreciation curve for a £50k car after 2 years, but if it's a sign of what the market is doing, looks like we'll have to get used to a new (old) normal

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Thats a bit of a shock - maybe just a reflection of current uncertainty about the economy, and electricity prices etc. But as you say, it's as much the previous prices seemed very high rather than the depreciation large.

I've also noticed that MY prices have tumbled generally in the last week or so. You were hard pushed to find one for £60k on the used market and now there is a healthy choice including delivery miles cars for under 59k. I hope the dealers, and there looks to be a number, who bought to flip for a profit are getting their fingers burnt a little as they were just taking stock from geninue people. My car MY is 6 months old and as I'm not selling I don't the prices coming down to more realsitic levels, I just hate people paying a premium to avoid a wait. Thats assuming that my MY isn't worth £10k less than I paid 6 months ago!

 

[kelvin 660]

Same for me from WBAC - 3 weeks ago £39K, 2 weeks ago £37.4K yesterday £34.6K

 

[Casss]

We will I think, yes. Hence my continued concern about certain people (often on this forum too) telling others they should just get a huge loan and pay cash because <insert unknowable half-truth about astronomical future values>.

It's a dodgy game to play so unless you're an expert at flipping cars (judgment withheld), and people are going to get stung badly due to short and long term changes.

Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future returns yada yada

 

[candida]

Interestingly, I've just reviewed a few other cars I've been watching over a week or so and there is no equivalent change - these aren't EVs.

Much as I'd like to think that imminent removal of ultrasonic sensors has cause the market to crash, I suspect the energy cost/brownout risk does mean that the market is getting EV spooked. Which isn't good for air quality sadly (I've always been a sceptic on larger environmental "friendliness" of EVs)

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

We will I think, yes. Hence my continued concern about certain people (often on this forum too) telling others they should just get a huge loan and pay cash because <insert unknowable half-truth about astronomical future values>.

It's a dodgy game to play so unless you're an expert at flipping cars (judgment withheld), and people are going to get stung badly due to short and long term changes.

Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future returns yada yada

I kind of agree, it’s a personal choice over lease or purchase, the lease prices at the moment suggest quite big depreciation so you can lock into that thumping loss by leasing, or take your chances with purchasing. PCP is the safer, albeit potentially more expensive route than lease, you typically accept a worse case than a lease, but you get any upside on the depreciation if that’s low.

But yes, anyone suggesting these things won’t depreciate is giving bad advice, they’ve just historically done very well.

 

[debrooker]

Back to normal then

 

[Redbaron73]

Supply and demand - lots of MY delivered. lots of used M3 hitting market. Many factors at play

 

[Hellayella01]

EDD’s for new Tesla’s in the configurator have come down dramatically, which probably has a part in it.

 

[SR-Plus]

And state of the UK economy. Lack of consumer confidence. Energy prices are sky high so consumers reducing the luxuries.

 

[seadog]

Glad I sold my M3P when I did to WBAC, they paid £49400 eight weeks ago, revalued today at £39600 I was surprised, they never tried to reduce the price at all and seemed really keen on buying the car. But this also means I will likely have taken a big hit on the new replacement M3P

 

[Durzel]

One should never look at cars as investments. Assume they will go down by a significant amount, year on year. Any extra you get is just a bonus.

As @GeorgeSymonds said I think it's more a reflection of prices becoming "normal" again. Anyone who believed that Teslas would magically hold their value in perpetuity when Tesla are cranking them out as fast as they can make them was being a bit naive, I think.

Frankly anyone who part-exchanged into a newer one at basically zero cost due to the inflated prices earlier in the year has done well, for everyone else it is business as usual.

 

[WllXM]

One should never look at cars as investments. Assume they will go down by a significant amount, year on year. Any extra you get is just a bonus.

As @GeorgeSymonds said I think it's more a reflection of prices becoming "normal" again. Anyone who believed that Teslas would magically hold their value in perpetuity when Tesla are cranking them out as fast as they can make them was being a bit naive, I think.

Frankly anyone who part-exchanged into a newer one at basically zero cost due to the inflated prices earlier in the year has done well, for everyone else it is business as usual.

Fully agree.
New was also a factor. The TM3 is a car that was introduced 4 1/2 years ago, with average lease times expiry, it is normal that a flurry of 2nd hand is now starting to emerge, while the only way to get one previously was to order brand new .
The same will happen to MYs in due course. And as competition grows in the EV segment, they will only follow the trend of the traditional second hand car market (bar the last year post-covid supply shortages).
Especially in the UK as this is a small, captive RHD market that cannot be arbitraged against anywhere else in Europe.

 

[Holycheese]

7 days ago got a price for my rwd model 3. Paid 41200 in Dec. Tesla offered 40k. 19k miles. This was from Tesla. 1200 in 9months depreciation. Not to shabby but I intend to drive my Tesla into the ground so it's immaterial. Only looked as I really fancied buying a y but the prices have risen to a point where I think they're overpriced.

 

[peige]

Had similar with them, I think mine dropped 4k in a week. I've ended up selling it through carwow to be collected next week but wbac really peed me off, I think its partly market and partly them tweaking down values when you check over and over. I had done it monthly then weekly and then I had to delay a week more while I took a private plate off. 41240 27/9, then 37635 3/10. Carwow 42000.
Values definatly on the move but I think wbac are very much ahead of the curve.

 

[Jason71]

Isn't this normal for this time of year? New car sales in September are always huge which leads to a glut of used cars trade ins in October?

 

[Mark V2]

My plan for March next year onwards was to change cars to a new one every six months and fund the depreciation....

 

[Kenners]

Most cars bought on finance, with interest rising the wheels (boom boom) will come off this business model. Same applies to used cars. And now pandemic wierdness is fading, reality bites that much harder.

 

[partywme]

Interesting that ICE cars on still on the rise. I assumed that with these chips becoming more available and the delays with new car orders being reduced, prices would also come down for used cars.

My valuation with WBAC and motorway has gone up 2-300 after another 700ish miles has been added from previous quote.

Still waiting on Tesla’s updated trade in offer

 

[Mark V2]

Interesting that ICE cars on still on the rise. I assumed that with these chips becoming more available and the delays with new car orders being reduced, prices would also come down for used cars.

I'm not sure thats quite the case yet! We have the following on order:

August 2021: VW Tiguan R-Line - no build date 14 months later (dealer saying probably 2023).
December 2021: LR Defender - original build date 21/10 cancelled, just been advised new build date 21/2/23