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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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I just want to caution sold-out for Q2 doesn't mean model S delivery will be more than 14K which is the last recorded quarterly production rate in Q4. Similar thing happened in Q1 already.
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Maybe not, but with model X at 750/wk, we're still looking at 22k minimum (S + X) for Q2.
Model X delivery now shows late June for 75D and June for the others. Production slowdown or more orders?
Exactly and the button on the second page now matches. Turns out the earlier dates of May/June were correct after all. I'd hesitate to put this down a production pickup. Model X's are increasingly becoming available for test drives so that could drive some conversions from reservations to orders. And the availability of the configurator to the larger public may mean fresh new orders coming in. Hopefully this means European and especially Asian deliveries are right around the corner.
Ok, Schoneluct, I get your hint, MX is added to the table 
- Estimated delivery time for Japan moved out from Late July June to August (6 days after the previous update).
I knew you'd eventually deliver. Great work. You are one of the most factual and correct contributors on this board, willing to discuss and disagree without resorting to petty name calling. Wish there were more of you.
(vgrinshpun will hate me for this post )
With the design studio now public for European Model X configuration we can start tracking delivery time estimation. Unfortunately we run once again in the same trouble with a different estimation on the first page, which mentions end 2016 and on the second page which mentions September. As with US orders, there is strong case to be made that the first page is likely more correct. Remember that no reservation holders in Europe have received confirmation that their car is being produced, let alone is shipping. Take 1 week of production, 6 weeks shipping, 1 week re-assembly in Tilburg and 2 weeks inspection and prep at the local service center. This would place the earliest possible European delivery somewhere halfway through July with August being much more likely. Yet a new order would be delivered by September? I don't think it's believable that the European order queue for the Model X is that shallow.
Personally I suspect the first flood of Model X deliveries in Europe will be August/September for early reservation holders, then working through the backlog until November which would put new reservations in December, consistent with the first page mention of end of 2016.
)With the design studio now public for European Model X configuration we can start tracking delivery time estimation. Unfortunately we run once again in the same trouble with a different estimation on the first page, which mentions end 2016 and on the second page which mentions September. As with US orders, there is strong case to be made that the first page is likely more correct. Remember that no reservation holders in Europe have received confirmation that their car is being produced, let alone is shipping. Take 1 week of production, 6 weeks shipping, 1 week re-assembly in Tilburg and 2 weeks inspection and prep at the local service center. This would place the earliest possible European delivery somewhere halfway through July with August being much more likely. Yet a new order would be delivered by September? I don't think it's believable that the European order queue for the Model X is that shallow.
Personally I suspect the first flood of Model X deliveries in Europe will be August/September for early reservation holders, then working through the backlog until November which would put new reservations in December, consistent with the first page mention of end of 2016.
Estimated delivery time for Germany (S70D) is now late July, i.e. Q3.
For reference, it moved from Q1 to Q2 on January 30, 95 days ago.
So not sure if this means "all production slots for Q2 are filled" or "although we have some free production slots, even if we start production next week, it's impossible to deliver to Germany in Q2". I'm not sure if "production constrained" is still true.
For reference, it moved from Q1 to Q2 on January 30, 95 days ago.
So not sure if this means "all production slots for Q2 are filled" or "although we have some free production slots, even if we start production next week, it's impossible to deliver to Germany in Q2". I'm not sure if "production constrained" is still true.
Gerasimental
Member
Is this (excellent) thread still being maintained?
I'm seeing:
UK: Late July (all Model S)
France: Late july (all Model S)
Canada: June (all Model S) - for Canada it only shows a date after selecting 'next' and going to the drop-down. Has this always been the case?
Australia: September (all Model S)
US: June (all Model S) - same as Canada: only shows date in 'Delivery Preference' drop-down.
Hong Kong: Late August (all Model S)
I'm seeing:
UK: Late July (all Model S)
France: Late july (all Model S)
Canada: June (all Model S) - for Canada it only shows a date after selecting 'next' and going to the drop-down. Has this always been the case?
Australia: September (all Model S)
US: June (all Model S) - same as Canada: only shows date in 'Delivery Preference' drop-down.
Hong Kong: Late August (all Model S)
Yes, will post the tables later today.
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Europe moved out from Late June to Late July (25 days after the previous update).
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Australia moved out from Late July to September (28 days after the previous update).
- MS: Estimated delivery time for China moved out from Late July to August (28 days after the previous update).
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Hong Kong moved out from Late July to August (28 days after the previous update).
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Japan moved out from August to Late August (22 days after the previous update).
Perfectlogic
Member
With 2400 Model X delivered in Q1 and being 6 weeks into Q2 the total X deliveries seems to be around 7k at this point. Judging by the wait times for the X it looks like the backlog is pretty much run through already. So total demand doesn't even look to be half of the 25k reservations at the reveal, if you take into account new reservations that suggests a lot higher than a 50% cancellation rate to me. It doesn't surprise me at all though, the car just doesn't have that much extra to offer compared to the S as the S is too a very large car.
I wonder if Tesla has enough demand to meet the 80-90k yearly guidance, when it was first announced I thought they would hit it easily but that was assuming they would deliver 30k Model X easy. But until now the total X demand has been around 11.5k if we give it a 6 week backlog at 750/week. At this rate they will only deliver around 15k X for the year unless demand really starts to take off. For the last year S demand was around 50k (steady waiting time), they will have to grow demand 30% just to meet the low end of guidance, I'm calling a miss already. Inb4 dislikes.
I wonder if Tesla has enough demand to meet the 80-90k yearly guidance, when it was first announced I thought they would hit it easily but that was assuming they would deliver 30k Model X easy. But until now the total X demand has been around 11.5k if we give it a 6 week backlog at 750/week. At this rate they will only deliver around 15k X for the year unless demand really starts to take off. For the last year S demand was around 50k (steady waiting time), they will have to grow demand 30% just to meet the low end of guidance, I'm calling a miss already. Inb4 dislikes.
ludicrousspeed
Member
I'm not ruling out a delivery miss, but this post is highly speculative. You're saying that Tesla would need to deliver at least 30k MX to meet 80k total deliveries, implying that they're selling a flat 50K MS this year. That would be a decrease from last year's total, despite the fact that Tesla has increased MS deliveries each of the past two years by over 50%. Obviously Tesla can't sustain that growth, but predicting a decrease in deliveries this year? Very unlikely.
You're also saying that there's currently a 6-week backlog (longer than MS), but they will only deliver 15k this year. This implies that almost no new orders will be placed/confirmed and that they will only deliver about 4.5k MX in the entire second half of the year. The X will gain an enormous amount of additional popularity this year once more of them are seen in the streets/showrooms, popular reviews start pouring in, and celebrities are seen with them (check the Bill Gates video on the MX forum for example). On top of that, you're forgetting about the tons of reservation holders who are waiting to see/test drive it in person, or are simply waiting until all of the quality concerns have been resolved.
I think a decrease in Model S is not impossible even probable. Remember, last year 50k Model S was the result of several unsustainable pushes (series of referral programs, discounts here and there, unusually unloading showroom/test drive/loaner, Denmark tax break, etc.). Also, they don't have much more production to go beyond 50k Model S if they want to sell more than 30k Model X. So far I'm not worried about Model X demand. Looks healthy enough.
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Perfectlogic
Member
No, I didn't say they need to deliver 30k MX to reach the target, I said that when the 30k MX deliveries looked likely around the reveal last year the 80-90k guidance seemed easy to hit. So the implication is that I think they will do 50k+ MS, not that I predict a decline in sales, you should read posts carefully before responding.
Also 15k MX sales does not imply "almost no new orders", nor does it imply only 4.5k sales in the second half of the year. It implies 15k-2.4k = 12.6k/3 = 4.2k sales per quarter which most likely is an increase in demand from the previous quarters unless almost all the original reservation holders cancelled.
Again, I do believe they will increase their MS sales over last year, but not 30%. The waiting time is still flat to slightly down for the MS at a production pace of around 13k, which it has been for quite a while, so it would take a sudden demand increase in the second half of the year to meet the guidance. I don't see where that should come from, if the demand trend continues it would equate to around 50-55k MS, which I think would result in a very significant miss.
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