Website wait times for delivery change

[chickensevil]

Time to start this up on the Model X now

They put months on the configuration page in the design studio:
Model X Design Studio | Tesla Motors

You will note that it says for US June for the 75D, and May for the 90D and P90D.

With the change to the front end of the Model S, I am wondering if this means that they have fully blended the BIW line and are just planning to push them through the line in the order that they come in? The only exception to this is the 75D option on the Model X being June, everything else is may, and me thinks this has to do with the battery size change...

 

[chickensevil]

I will note as I try to play around with other countries that is appears that it is just US that is open to being able to use the design studio for now. This may change by the end of the day as they are actively making changes to the site... but as of right now that is the only option.

I am wondering what this means for Q2 numbers... hmmmm

 

[schonelucht]

Unfortunately with wait times May-June for model X that means they'll be done with the backlog in at most 8 weeks. Assuming a rate of 1000 model X / week together with the roughly 4000 already delivered means the (estimated) 25k US reservations generated only 12k firm orders or a cancellation rate of over 50%.

 

[Fallenone]

Unfortunately with wait times May-June for model X that means they'll be done with the backlog in at most 8 weeks. Assuming a rate of 1000 model X / week together with the roughly 4000 already delivered means the (estimated) 25k US reservations generated only 12k firm orders or a cancellation rate of over 50%.

Same thoughts here.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The earliest available delivery time for X90D is JULY, not May:

 

[SBenson]

Unfortunately with wait times May-June for model X that means they'll be done with the backlog in at most 8 weeks. Assuming a rate of 1000 model X / week together with the roughly 4000 already delivered means the (estimated) 25k US reservations generated only 12k firm orders or a cancellation rate of over 50%.

I wonder how many people still haven't had a chance to see the car in person and thus hesitant to order one.

Reading through the Model X sub-forum threads, it was very clear that Tesla combed through the reservation list quite thoroughly deep and wide to capture all possible P90Ds and 90Ds. So it's not very surprising to me that they are opening with a possible May delivery date. It might get pushed back a bit as other countries open up.

 

[schonelucht]

The earliest available delivery time for X90D is JULY, not May:

View attachment 171940

I think you are reading that wrong. June/May is the 'First available' and July is then the next month. See also this screenshot from the design studio :

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think you are reading that wrong. June/May is the 'First available' and July is then the next month. See also this screenshot from the design studio :

Not really. My reading is correct.

See Model S ordering page, it shows delivery in May. This also corresponds to the "First Available" delivery shown after configuring the car and pressing "Next" button. It is shown in two snap shots below. So, in conclusion the June-May delivery shown with the specs for X is just an error. The real delivery estimate appears after configuring the car and pressing "Next" button - and it shows JULY, not May and not June.

 

[Fallenone]

Not really. My reading is correct.

See Model S ordering page, it shows delivery in May. This also corresponds to the "First Available" delivery shown after configuring the car and pressing "Next" button. It is shown in two snap shots below. So, in conclusion the June-May delivery shown with the specs for X is just an error. The real delivery estimate appears after configuring the car and pressing "Next" button - and it shows JULY, not May and not June.
View attachment 171967
View attachment 171968

Just wild guess here, could it also be tricking the customer to think they will get it sooner than they would...

 

[schonelucht]

Not really. My reading is correct.

Then why is Tesla sending emails to interested prospects promising delivery in May if they order now? This thread contains two such reports, you can find a few more scattered over the Model X forum : New Tesla Marketing Email

 

[Fallenone]

Then why is Tesla sending emails to interested prospects promising delivery in May if they order now? This thread contains two such reports, you can find a few more scattered over the Model X forum : New Tesla Marketing Email

Those emails are for reservation holders, many have been waiting for over a year. If they confirm their order they should get earlier delivery compared to someone who just configured today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Then why is Tesla sending emails to interested prospects promising delivery in May if they order now? This thread contains two such reports, you can find a few more scattered over the Model X forum : New Tesla Marketing Email

I do not need to use the link - I got this e-mail in my in-box. Let's not forget that this e-mail is more than week old. As I explained in detail, the current projected delivery time for those placing order on the newly opened configuration page is JULY.

 

[Quant]

From what I can tell, based on info on various boards, and with the expression a 'ear to the ground', the quality issues wrt to the X have made a very significant number of X reservation holders to delay or simply not confirm at this time. They don't want to be stuck with a problem X and just want one as good in build quality as an S.

I believe this is quite rational given all the info we all know about the X.

So, Tesla is really now trying to boost current demand via the showrooms.

I think this reticence on the part of the reservation holders will probably persist for at least another 3-4 months.

So, anyone who is ordering now really has a good chance of getting an X within a few months.

Please take this info FWIW. Just one opinion......though an informed one.

 

[DaveT]

From what I can tell, based on info on various boards, and with the expression a 'ear to the ground', the quality issues wrt to the X have made a very significant number of X reservation holders to delay or simply not confirm at this time. They don't want to be stuck with a problem X and just want one as good in build quality as an S.

I believe this is quite rational given all the info we all know about the X.

So, Tesla is really now trying to boost current demand via the showrooms.

I think this reticence on the part of the reservation holders will probably persist for at least another 3-4 months.

So, anyone who is ordering now really has a good chance of getting an X within a few months.

Please take this info FWIW. Just one opinion......though an informed one.

Yeah I do have some concerns for Model X demand. Many current reservations holder, like myself, are in limbo. And I have a feeling a lot will cancel their reservation as well. And then, Tesla will have to rely on new incoming reservations. But the X is a bit of a confusing car due to it's falcon-wing doors. I noticed at a X test drive event that a lot of people were intrigued by the Model X but also reserved about it due to it's doors. Also, it's priced higher than the S as well. We'll see. I don't think they need to sell a ton of X's to meet guidance this year, but I do question if demand will be as high as some people anticipate.

 

[schonelucht]

I do not need to use the link - I got this e-mail in my in-box. Let's not forget that this e-mail is more than week old. As I explained in detail, the current projected delivery time for those placing order on the newly opened configuration page is JULY.

Are you seriously suggesting that the order rate of the model X is such that delivery time jumped two full months in the matter of one week? Anyway, clearly one of the two mentioned projections on the Tesla website is wrong : what makes you think my suggestion is wrong? Have you seen such discrepancies before? How was it resolved back then?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Are you seriously suggesting that the order rate of the model X is such that delivery time jumped two full months in the matter of one week? Anyway, clearly one of the two mentioned projections on the Tesla website is wrong : what makes you think my suggestion is wrong? Have you seen such discrepancies before? How was it resolved back then?

The place where estimated delivery "May" is put - together with the specs - is not a proper location for it. This box is clearly not a spot designed for often changing information, like estimated delivery time. For Model S for example, they either put estimated delivery time near the "Next" button in the pricing box, or have it in the drop-down menu on the page that opens once "Next" button is pressed (see pages for Canada and Hong Kong).

Also, I am not suggesting anything except to state that Tesla estimates delivery time for orders placed on newly open configuration page for all variants to be in July.

I also want to mention that situation with deferring Model X orders is very similar to the spring of 2013 when a lot of Model S long time orders were deferred as well. As we all well know now demand for Model S is strong, and it is best selling premium sedan in it's class. Model X situation is quite similar, and I do not think that it is indicative of the "demand problem".

For the record, as can be seen from my signature, I am deferring my MX order as well, mainly because I want an extensive back-yo-back test drive of 90D vs P90D vs P90D with ludicrous to decide which trim to choose. When I took a 15 min test drive of MX I was told that having all these variants in the store as demo cars might take a while...

 

[schonelucht]

The place where estimated delivery "May" is put - together with the specs - is not a proper location for it. This box is clearly not a spot designed for often changing information, like estimated delivery time. For Model S for example, they either put estimated delivery time near the "Next" button in the pricing box, or have it in the drop-down menu on the page that opens once "Next" button is pressed (see pages for Canada and Hong Kong).

Yet, even if that is not the proper place (I agree). Someone still put it there and left it in place when the ordering page went public. Maybe this is an outdated leftover from when the ordering page was still private for reservation holders but then again, that estimate can't be terribly old either.

I also want to mention that situation with deferring Model X orders is very similar to the spring of 2013 when a lot of Model S long time orders were deferred as well. As we all well know now demand for Model S is strong, and it is best selling premium sedan in it's class. Model X situation is quite similar, and I do not think that it is indicative of the "demand problem".

I agree on this. I should not have written there is a 50% cancellation rate because that is not something we can defer. At most we can conclude that around 50% of the US reservation holders have converted into a firm order.

 

[SBenson]

US Model S delivery now says June.

 

[Hogfighter]

US Model S delivery now says June.

Undoubtedly a pop in orders due to S refresh. It'll be interesting to see the CPO numbers in the coming months.

And agreeing with vgrinshpun, I find it hard to believe that you can get an X (May) before an S (June), regardless of what the website says.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thank you for an update, SBenson!
It appears that Model S refresh was successful in encouraging those who were sitting on the fence to commit. Model S is essentially sold-out for Q2 globally.

• Estimated delivery time for NA moved out from May to June to Late June (16 days after the previous update)
• Estimated delivery time for Mexico moved out from May to July (51 days after the previous update)
  
• Estimated delivery time for Australia moved out from July to Late July (3 days after the previous update)
• Estimated delivery time for China moved out from July to Late July (5 days after the previous update)
• Estimated delivery time for Japan moved out from Late June to Late July (25 days after the previous update)
  
• Estimated delivery time for Hong Kong moved out from July to Late July (5 days after the previous update)