Ouch. Didn't Nikola recently announce that they were going to get their battery packs from Proterra? (After buying, and then scraping, their prior battery supplier Romeo.)another suggested stock in this thread. We should change the thread to "other stock to short"
Electric Vehicle Tech Manufacturer Proterra Files for Bankruptcy
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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
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I picked up some Volex PLC yesterday. They are one of the first licensees of the Tesla plug/converter. They are a smallish cap worldwide manufacturer of various electrical and electronic components. They have two fast growing sub markets, EV parts and data center (they make 400 Gbps and 800 Gbps fiber cables). They have a small dividend (1.5%) but appear poised to grow faster than their historical growth.
Thanks,
I've been looking to pull the trigger on Dynatrace. They seem fairly solid in the growing AI market.
Another Matt Bohlsen piece, this one looking at Origin Materials
A Look At The Origin Materials - Artius Acquisition Potential Merger (NASDAQ:AACQ)
Origin Materials proposes to merge with SPAC Artius Acquisition in a pro-forma deal of ~US$1.8b, with net cash to Origin of ~US$863m, set to complete Q2 2021.seekingalpha.com
Did any one here end up investing in Origin materials $ORGN ?
I only started looking into it last week, literally just before they were heavily sold off following an earnings report.
The shareholder base was very much dominated by retail investors who pumped money in at the SPAC launch, who were already sitting well under water.
At earnings they announced a much more capital efficient build out of their next plant, but with a 12-18 month delay. But of course that was not welcomed by those who wanted the fast profits who had been holding for 2 years.
Anyway now order book has surpassed $10 Billion, and yet the sell off has been so overdone the company Is trading at less than cash on hand value now, and well below half of book value with a market cap of under $180m. Yet there is no threat whatsoever of the company not being a going concern, and they have literally just completed building their first plant and initiating licensing deals.
Looks like a possible 100x opportunity, but would be interested to hear others opinions.
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Any one thinking of buying bonds ... specifically Treasuries?
Bonds prices are down as interest has kept going up.... at some point it will reverse ... (goal is to try to time this ... but want to hear on any pro/cons for buying treasuries)
I'm considering something in Vanguard for one of my 401K funds ... where I cannot choose stocks and have everything sitting in Money Market Fund.
Bonds prices are down as interest has kept going up.... at some point it will reverse ... (goal is to try to time this ... but want to hear on any pro/cons for buying treasuries)
I'm considering something in Vanguard for one of my 401K funds ... where I cannot choose stocks and have everything sitting in Money Market Fund.
It is very tempting. You could get 10-20% yearly returns if you sell in about a year or two. For high income taxpayers, individual munis might be a better bet, but similar idea. I know that I’m replenishing my muni portfolio now and into next year which had been whittled away during years of low interest rates.
There are indeed different investment grades for different muni bonds. Just like corporate bonds, they have ratings like AA, BB, etc. Interest rates go up as risk quality goes down. I use my muni portfolio interest income for my living expenses. So I hold them to maturity (or more usually, until they get called). If you buy munis from your state, the interest income is 100% tax free. Which helps a lot given all the AMT tax pile ons and lost deductions that can result from that (while I managed to keep the $7,500 tax credit for buying an EV last year, I didn’t get the credit for the $800 EVSE installation, go figure).
I tend to buy very high investment grade bonds that have a dedicated revenue stream attached to the interest payments, but your risk appetite might be higher. So my bonds are either CA State General Obligation bonds (backed by the taxing authority of California, say what you will, CA isn’t going bankrupt anytime soon), or things like some water or sewer board that has direct access to the income from water utility charges or sewer charges which come from property tax bills.
Each muni bond is different, so you kinda have to read and understand the bond. Or buy a muni bond fund.
I could go on, like talking about calls and figuring out the taxable equivalent interest rate (the muni might only give you 4.0% interest, but that could be equivalent to a 7% taxable bond depending on your marginal tax rate).
Edit, so about recessions. No I’m Not worried. Munis very rarely default, and their interest payments are generally very secure. And I hold them to maturity, so I don’t care about interest rate swings.
While they have less to worry about overall, diversification in a muni bond fund can provide great comfort in trying times.
PRVAX is a candidate for your location.
I use RMUNX in NYS. Yields 4% at the moment with monthly dividends. Given my marginal tax rates we are looking at an equivalent 7% return for me at least.
ORNAX is a federally tax free only yielding 5% right now. You can work out the math with a marginal tax rate of 37%.
It does not make sense really. Either interest rates will wilt or the equity market will get hurt badly at which point they will wilt then. US 30 year bond is at 5%. Long term equivalent returns in high tax states of high 5s guaranteed by the US Treasury. I cannot imagine whales with cash on hand are not buying eagerly.
We're supposed to stay detached?
Oh ****.
Thanks for posting. I'd never heard of Origin but if they can produce more environment friendly industrial materials at costs low enough to permit fast scaling, it would be just what the plastic choked planet needs.
I imagine you got the 10 B order book figure from company statements. Is there any non company source that can corroborate that figure?
Please do post any further info you find on them and their prospects.
Yesterday a law firm announced they'd filed a class action suit against Origin.
Origin Class Action Suit
So some good analysis work would be needed to figure out if the suit is merited or not and how much risk it introduces investing in the company at this low entry point.
That’s a standard shareholder strike suit that bottom feeder law firms routinely file whenever a stock gets a massive percentage drop. It isn’t merited, and it’ll get settled after Origin pays $5M - $10M to settle.
what’s more worrying is the quarterly results that precipitated the stock price drop. That’s what I would focus on.
In general looks like SPACs should be avoided…Chamath,lordstown, vinfast etc
Seems like fast way to start IPO without the due diligence being applied…
.. maybe a biased view because we hear more about the failures though..
No, you’re right. SPACs have two problems. One is the avoidance of due diligence since they avoid having to write an SEC lawyer cleared S-1. Second, they have an additional layer of fees that are paid out which doesn’t go to the company. In a normal IPO, the underwriters take a 7% commission. With SPACs, that fee could be 30% or more … it is hard to tell because the financing arrangements are complex and hard to calculate.
This fact is very telling. If a company can do a traditional IPO, they would because the cost of capital is far cheaper going that route. Therefore only marginal companies do SPACs.
At one point, I did a mini analysis of SPACs as an outside investor and concluded that you might have been able to make money early on by buying some chamath SPACs on the market early on if you had blind faith in his hyping ability (and you dumped the shares soon after they started a run, never hold on post Merger), but in general, it was a sucker’s bet. The only people who really made consistent money were the institutional investors who got to invest into the SPAC vehicle as it was being set up since they got very favorable terms, almost a guaranteed return, actually.
For those still interested in the American Battery Technology Company (now ABAT on NASDAQ).
They just commenced operations on their first commercial scale recycling facility. A bunch of former Tesla employees work here, including the CEO Ryan Melsert.
They just commenced operations on their first commercial scale recycling facility. A bunch of former Tesla employees work here, including the CEO Ryan Melsert.
Coincidently, in relation to my previous post, I just saw that FedEx announced a recycling program with ABTC (NASDAQ: ABAT).
https://stocks.apple.com/AczBXQlqHQTWtY69gJ5bHrg
https://stocks.apple.com/AczBXQlqHQTWtY69gJ5bHrg
good to know and great to see...was wondering about this company...my investment in them has not gone so well...hopefully they start to show results now.
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