-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
My trading profits in TSLA have been mostly luck. My long term profits in TSLA are skill (picking the stock early).
My reference was aimed at mutual funds and actively managed vs. index funds.
Still, I wrestle with this concept. 95% of my lifetime gains in investing are due to going in hard in TSLA stock and options in 2013. Due to this, I tend to think I am better off managing my own money over putting it in an index. I know this is a fallacy, but empirically I can demonstrate outperforming the market.
SebastianR
Active Member
I know, I know... the way I think about it: TSLA = gambling (which may include some skill, but still is gambling only). Index = investing. So that's my portfolio...
Your sample size of n=1 is a little on the small side to be statistically useful. Plop yourself (and many of us on this forum) into the entire pool of active investors and you see that, for example, for every one who slammed it out of the park with great gains in TSLA, there are those who bet big on {what's the name of that battery company whozizface kept touting? AZXS or something?}.
And a great big bell curve of everyone else in the middle.
Not quite perfect, because of the loss/gain asymmetry: In essence one only can go on the wrong side from at t=0, $X -----> at t= end [$X-$X] = $0; whereas on the winning side at t = end [$X+whatever], ie, one can go to $GigaX
And a great big bell curve of everyone else in the middle.
Not quite perfect, because of the loss/gain asymmetry: In essence one only can go on the wrong side from at t=0, $X -----> at t= end [$X-$X] = $0; whereas on the winning side at t = end [$X+whatever], ie, one can go to $GigaX
Luck needs a bit of a push, it is not enough, at least my luck often sucks.
My experience is that luck sort of resides in some places and times. The tricky bit is to find the right place at the right time and there is usually plenty of luck then. That tricky bit can be helped with some skills.
Regarding money, I find it hard to understand how people can outsource managing money. Perhaps that can be done if money is not a relevant issue in someone's life.
I started investing through managed funds. Some of them lost money, some made gains. I still carry some capital losses from 2008, made by investments in funds, these come handy now at tax time. Now I run my own personal fund and personal account, pick stocks and that feels much better.
The only regret I have is not starting it sooner and wasting years in the wrong place. ASX is not that bad, but it does not come even close to US markets regarding market efficiency - things like information availability and the speed of pricing it in, liquidity, opportunities.
That 'classic error small investors make' is a slogan invented by professional money managers who are fearing becoming irrelevant. Technological advancements made it possible for anyone to compete with them, scoring is easy and winners are visible. Their market is shrinking.
Without a doubt, there are professional money managers out there that would do better than a small investor, but my chances of engaging them are far smaller than my chances of outperforming the average professional who might be careless with clients money. The incentives of the average professional money manager are not fully aligned with clients' interests.
Small investors have full incentives alignment, high stakes. High stakes are likely to drive better performance.
Last edited:
hockeythug
Active Member
erha
Member
Anybody still interested in GoPro?
Haven't really looked into the company, but it is down ~75% YTD while boosting a 43% YoY growth in revenues. A PE of only 14. They are releasing a quadcopter next year. I think quadcopters can be pretty huge in the future. Imagine if everybody could film like you had a helicopter. You don't want to be a journalist without a GoPro drone. Tv productions. Sport events. Skiers. Surfers. Bikers. Soccer moms?
GoPro: Karma is Coming
Haven't really looked into the company, but it is down ~75% YTD while boosting a 43% YoY growth in revenues. A PE of only 14. They are releasing a quadcopter next year. I think quadcopters can be pretty huge in the future. Imagine if everybody could film like you had a helicopter. You don't want to be a journalist without a GoPro drone. Tv productions. Sport events. Skiers. Surfers. Bikers. Soccer moms?
GoPro: Karma is Coming
hockeythug
Active Member
The great Citron Research claiming MBLY is the "short of the year" citing this story:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...In-His-Garage-Bloomberg?p=1280749#post1280749
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...In-His-Garage-Bloomberg?p=1280749#post1280749
stealthology
Member
Snagged 2% on the short
. Trade lasted <1 min. I've done similar things to TSLA in the past; has no reflection on what I think of the company long term.Andrew Left of Citron Research is a pretty big douchebag.
Was looking to pick done shares up on sale until seeing that Elon is looking to bring autopilot inhouse: Elon Musk offered a Autopilot system for Tesla | Electrek
I guess I'll just have to pick up more TSLA instead.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I never believe citron. He has been wrong multiple times calling on shorting Tsla when less than 160. Also has done jail time as I recall. Would not trust him. Musk and tesla have been quiet on the article so no confirmation. Also no contract mentioned. He would be yrs behind mobile eye with all their data and contracts with OEMs. Musk and tesla have not confirmed bringing auto pilot in house
Right...so they outsourced the sensors and algorithm and now are looking to bring those in-house.
PART of the sensors and algorithm. Besides of MBLY's cameras, TSLA is also using radar and other stuff for sensors. For processor, TSLA is also using NVDA's products. MBLY feeds the raw data captured by their cameras using their algorithm to the TSLA autopilot system but that data is still being processed by TSLA's own team to direct the car. Autonomous driving is all about a system not its parts alone.
Correction to article: "The First Person to Hack the iPhone Built a Self-Driving Car" | Tesla Motors
The article by Ashlee Vance did not correctly represent Tesla or MobilEye. We think it is extremely unlikely that a single person or even a small company that lacks extensive engineering validation capability will be able to produce an autonomous driving system that can be deployed to production vehicles. It may work as a limited demo on a known stretch of road -- Tesla had such a system two years ago -- but then requires enormous resources to debug over millions of miles of widely differing roads.
This is the true problem of autonomy: getting a machine learning system to be 99% correct is relatively easy, but getting it to be 99.9999% correct, which is where it ultimately needs to be, is vastly more difficult. One can see this with the annual machine vision competitions, where the computer will properly identify something as a dog more than 99% of the time, but might occasionally call it a potted plant. Making such mistakes at 70 mph would be highly problematic.
We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed in the article, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.
Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning. Going forward, we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip, in our vehicles. Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it.
Correction to article: "The First Person to Hack the iPhone Built a Self-Driving Car"
The article by Ashlee Vance did not correctly represent Tesla or MobilEye. We think it is extremely unlikely that a single person or even a small company that lacks extensive engineering validation capability will be able to produce an autonomous driving system that can be deployed to production vehicles. It may work as a limited demo on a known stretch of road -- Tesla had such a system two years ago -- but then requires enormous resources to debug over millions of miles of widely differing roads.
This is the true problem of autonomy: getting a machine learning system to be 99% correct is relatively easy, but getting it to be 99.9999% correct, which is where it ultimately needs to be, is vastly more difficult. One can see this with the annual machine vision competitions, where the computer will properly identify something as a dog more than 99% of the time, but might occasionally call it a potted plant. Making such mistakes at 70 mph would be highly problematic.
We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed in the article, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.
Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning. Going forward, we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip, in our vehicles. Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it.
Last edited:
Chickenlittle
Banned
i hope nobody traded on this news which is not accurate. Don't believe it because it's in print
Similar threads
- Article
