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I am circling back to Amazon. It's likely a 10-25% return year over year on a back of the envelope math (revenue growth 15-18%, gross margins slightly better with productivity, keeping high R&D and G&A).

I work in logistics and the momentum Amazon is putting into infrastructure is incredible. 300 DC in NA at 250K SF this year! It is unheard of. The GTA will have 7 new DC alone.

The amount of optimization they can do (example, the KIVA robots are faster, thinner and the software for retrieval) to increase profit is incredible. With each 2X in revenue I would not surprises they will reduce cost by 20% (Watsons Law).

I really vibe with Jeff on not looking at quarterly and focusing on long term. I see a lot of upside in terms of home robotics, their own delivery service, autonomy, pharmacy, grocery, etc...).
 
Without exception, EVERY time I see that symbol I do a double take. CRM is a name I made a potload of money on....by shorting. About the very, and possibly the very, last time I ever sold short.

You see.....

It used to be the symbol for a Venezuelan (yes!) conglomerate: Corimon. Thus the symbol's letters. Imploded spectacularly in the mid-1990s - shortly before I left Wall St; thank you very much. It appears that Salesforce got handed some worn out ol' stock symbol, but it still, as I wrote, flummoxes me every single time.

back in the day (2000s) CRM was Customer Relationship Management software and Salesforce wanted to be king. I'm pretty sure they picked it on purpose.
 
Not sure how reliable this info is, but ABNB expected to open at 1:30PM EST with an indicated price of $155.11

I might as well cancel my limit order now and see what happens when it opens.

IMHO that is crazy stupid high. The valuation would be greater than a lot of major players in the hotel industry, and to live up to that valuation ABNB would need to seriously have some fantastic sales.

Not advice.
 
Whats airbnbs path to profit? this is not a new company, it really should be profitable by now. I cant see that there are huge economies of scale here, and they do not actually *own* any real assets other than the app back-end and customer list.
Frankly, a company built around 'why not stay in complete strangers houses' is practically nuked by the advent of a global pandemic. Maybe the company has *some* value, despite its constant loses, but imho it is laughably, hilariously overvalued.
Where is the magic tech or USP that airbnb has that will produce a profit in the future despite failing so badly to do so until now? is the global pandemic the year they suddenly make money? unlikely.
 
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Whats airbnbs path to profit? this is not a new company, it really should be profitable by now. I cant see that there are huge economies of scale here, and they do not actually *own* any real assets other than the app back-end and customer list.
Frankly, a company built around 'why not stay in complete strangers houses' is practically nuked by the advent of a global pandemic. Maybe the company has *some* value, despite its constant loses, but imho it is laughably, hilariously overvalued.
Where is the magic tech or USP that airbnb has that will produce a profit in the future despite failing so badly to do so until now? is the global pandemic the year they suddenly make money? unlikely.
People get into strangers cars and homes all the time. Not my cup of tea BTW. I believe they do own very small amount of properties. I rather they don’t so no risk to them. I don’t know about you and the circle of friends around you but my friends are itching to travel and get out of this lockdown. ABNB is a natural monopoly and it’s for them to screw up. If I can get in on the cheaper side I’m ready to dump some winnings. But that doesn’t seem to be the case right now.
 
I didn't wake up in time to confirm ABNB allocation with Fidelity, but looks like small fish didn't get any allocations anyway so it was all for naught.
Same here, they sent notification at midnight my time and wanted confirmation by early morning. I never even saw the messages till later in the morning. Would have been nice to get some, but not for small fish like us I guess
 
People get into strangers cars and homes all the time. Not my cup of tea BTW. I believe they do own very small amount of properties. I rather they don’t so no risk to them. I don’t know about you and the circle of friends around you but my friends are itching to travel and get out of this lockdown. ABNB is a natural monopoly and it’s for them to screw up. If I can get in on the cheaper side I’m ready to dump some winnings. But that doesn’t seem to be the case right now.

As someone who has used ABNB several times in the past, I actually think they have a good chance at profit. I also used VRBO previously, and ABNB does provide a much more positive experience. For folks with kids, ABNB can be much more attractive than staying in hotels. I also agree, folks are itching to travel and get out of their houses. We are planning to do this for the winter break - our companies have 2 week shut downs. Staying home with kids and nothing much to do outside (no visiting friends, no restaurants, restrictions on beach going, etc) would drive us nuts for 2 weeks. But we dont want to get into a plane and go anywhere far, so we decided to spend 5 days in San Francisco and wine country area - just drive up there. Well, the hotel just cancelled our reservations due to the restrictions. So instead of cancelling the trip, we simply reserved an entire 3 bedroom house in that area for 1 week. The cost is higher than reserving two hotel rooms for the family, but we have a spacious house and full kitchen for the week. Which means, even if the restaurants are closed, we can pick up food or order in and enjoy the outdoors away from home.

I like to invest in companies that I am comfortable using their products. ABNB falls in that category perfectly. Unfortunately, I could not get any IPO shares, but will likely buy some after the initial run-up is done
 
As someone who has used ABNB several times in the past, I actually think they have a good chance at profit. I also used VRBO previously, and ABNB does provide a much more positive experience. For folks with kids, ABNB can be much more attractive than staying in hotels. I also agree, folks are itching to travel and get out of their houses. We are planning to do this for the winter break - our companies have 2 week shut downs. Staying home with kids and nothing much to do outside (no visiting friends, no restaurants, restrictions on beach going, etc) would drive us nuts for 2 weeks. But we dont want to get into a plane and go anywhere far, so we decided to spend 5 days in San Francisco and wine country area - just drive up there. Well, the hotel just cancelled our reservations due to the restrictions. So instead of cancelling the trip, we simply reserved an entire 3 bedroom house in that area for 1 week. The cost is higher than reserving two hotel rooms for the family, but we have a spacious house and full kitchen for the week. Which means, even if the restaurants are closed, we can pick up food or order in and enjoy the outdoors away from home.
Of course you realize this is still a violation of the lockdown order...