Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Just noticed that SKLZ has significant shorting:
Opportunity to double down or should I get out?
Opportunity to double down or should I get out?
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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
So many Internet postings attempt at predicting the future and later earn the designation of "didn't age well". This post from @Cosmacelf has aged very well indeed. I owe gratitude to him for sharing this knowledge for I have benefited from buying some of his recommendations. I wonder if you, Cosmacelf, are planning an update. It's been 18 months since this posting
anyone have any thoughts on HTZZ…So many Internet postings attempt at predicting the future and later earn the designation of "didn't age well". This post from @Cosmacelf has aged very well indeed. I owe gratitude to him for sharing this knowledge for I have benefited from buying some of his recommendations. I wonder if you, Cosmacelf, are planning an update. It's been 18 months since this posting
{my ARKK holdings did “very well thank you” and MSFT is up to about $96,000/share (split adjusted tho my data is a few days old)(multiply by 288)}
So many Internet postings attempt at predicting the future and later earn the designation of "didn't age well". This post from @Cosmacelf has aged very well indeed. I owe gratitude to him for sharing this knowledge for I have benefited from buying some of his recommendations. I wonder if you, Cosmacelf, are planning an update. It's been 18 months since this posting
Well, here are the results as of now (would have looked quite different a month ago!). I used April 1st 2020 as a starting point, even though I wrote that post February 28th (I don't think there would be much difference).
| 4/1/2020 | 10/31/2021 | % gain | |
| TSLA | $ 156.38 | $ 1,114.00 | 612% |
| BILL | $ 58.89 | $ 294.31 | 400% |
| ZS | $ 67.08 | $ 318.86 | 375% |
| DOCU | $ 104.75 | $ 278.29 | 166% |
| OKTA | $ 151.30 | $ 247.18 | 63% |
| FSLY | $ 21.65 | $ 50.61 | 134% |
The growth stocks did really well ... until you compare them to TSLA
So, holding onto TSLA rather than selling some of it and diversifying was actually the best strategy. Not only for absolute returns as shown above, but also, you get taxed on the capital gains you've taken off the table. So you end up investing quite a bit less into the diversified basket.
Basically, this showcases the maxim that to achieve the best gains, DO NOT DIVERSIFY. Diversification lowers risk, but doesn't maximize gains. The catch, of course, is that your guess has to be correct. You have zero wiggle room if you screw up.
I remember when solid state hard drives were just becoming available, I realized they were going to take over the market. Problem was that all the core technology holders were large diversified companies (mostly semiconductor companies that had many product lines). But I did find a small up and coming manufacturer that used other people's chips and was making headway. That stock did great until they got caught channel stuffing resulting in fraud complaints (it was pretty mild all things considered, but it was more than enough to tank the stock).
Anyways, the point is this. Do your research to uncover gems, like TSLA, like ZS, like BILL. And here's the part that no one ever does unless they're a professional. Keep researching your portfolio. Listen to every damn quarterly conference call. Figure out whether or not the company still makes sense. If it continues to be a growth company (or a cyclical company in an up market, or whatever kind of company it is), then there's no reason to sell it.
If you do need to sell, try to match your sales with your losers (we all have them) to minimize tax consequences. Of course, if you need to spend money, don't sweat it, sell some stock, pay the tax (it's lower than ordinary income) and be happy.
Right now, TSLA continues to be a buy. Is it better than some new growth stock that I don't know the name of? Probably not, but I haven't found that other company yet.
Why is TSLA still a buy at $1,114? In a nutshell because Morgan Stanley gave it a $1,200 price target assuming they'll grow at 28% per year. That's very conservative. Tesla itself projects 50% annual growth rate, and given everything I know about the company (and I do listen to all their damn quarterly conference calls), they'll hit that, easily.
Caveat: While it is impossible to generally time the market, there are some near term dangers for all stock market prices. The Fed is about to taper its bond purchases which will cause interest rates to float up. That, along with potentially more signs of inflation, if they appear, will freak out the market, in the short term (like between now and mid-December). Medium and long term, I think you want to be fully invested in the stock market and/or real estate market since it sure is looking like we're headed for a bout of inflation. Don't buy bonds or lend money or hold cash. Owing money is OK though
HTZZ is never going to be a high flying stock. And it got an artificial bump recently by piggybacking onto the Tesla name. That's a company that needs a detailed spreadsheet analysis to figure out if it makes sense to invest into. Seems that the company itself is poised to do well, but gosh, what a hard to predict market in these times...
pz1975
Active Member
I bought HTZZ on the morning of the Tesla-Hertz deal and am still holding up 13%. I expect the momo of the Tesla link to continue for awhile and I will sell when I think it’s peaked. Not planning a long-term hold. I would buy again if FSD seems imminent and they are positioned to be a robotaxi first mover.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Do you still have those stocks in your portfolio? If so, how long do you plan on holding them?Well, here are the results as of now (would have looked quite different a month ago!). I used April 1st 2020 as a starting point, even though I wrote that post February 28th (I don't think there would be much difference).
4/1/2020 10/31/2021 % gain TSLA $ 156.38 $ 1,114.00 612% BILL $ 58.89 $ 294.31 400% ZS $ 67.08 $ 318.86 375% DOCU $ 104.75 $ 278.29 166% OKTA $ 151.30 $ 247.18 63% FSLY $ 21.65 $ 50.61 134%
The growth stocks did really well ... until you compare them to TSLA
So, holding onto TSLA rather than selling some of it and diversifying was actually the best strategy. Not only for absolute returns as shown above, but also, you get taxed on the capital gains you've taken off the table. So you end up investing quite a bit less into the diversified basket.
Basically, this showcases the maxim that to achieve the best gains, DO NOT DIVERSIFY. Diversification lowers risk, but doesn't maximize gains. The catch, of course, is that your guess has to be correct. You have zero wiggle room if you screw up.
I remember when solid state hard drives were just becoming available, I realized they were going to take over the market. Problem was that all the core technology holders were large diversified companies (mostly semiconductor companies that had many product lines). But I did find a small up and coming manufacturer that used other people's chips and was making headway. That stock did great until they got caught channel stuffing resulting in fraud complaints (it was pretty mild all things considered, but it was more than enough to tank the stock).
Anyways, the point is this. Do your research to uncover gems, like TSLA, like ZS, like BILL. And here's the part that no one ever does unless they're a professional. Keep researching your portfolio. Listen to every damn quarterly conference call. Figure out whether or not the company still makes sense. If it continues to be a growth company (or a cyclical company in an up market, or whatever kind of company it is), then there's no reason to sell it.
If you do need to sell, try to match your sales with your losers (we all have them) to minimize tax consequences. Of course, if you need to spend money, don't sweat it, sell some stock, pay the tax (it's lower than ordinary income) and be happy.
Right now, TSLA continues to be a buy. Is it better than some new growth stock that I don't know the name of? Probably not, but I haven't found that other company yet.
Why is TSLA still a buy at $1,114? In a nutshell because Morgan Stanley gave it a $1,200 price target assuming they'll grow at 28% per year. That's very conservative. Tesla itself projects 50% annual growth rate, and given everything I know about the company (and I do listen to all their damn quarterly conference calls), they'll hit that, easily.
Caveat: While it is impossible to generally time the market, there are some near term dangers for all stock market prices. The Fed is about to taper its bond purchases which will cause interest rates to float up. That, along with potentially more signs of inflation, if they appear, will freak out the market, in the short term (like between now and mid-December). Medium and long term, I think you want to be fully invested in the stock market and/or real estate market since it sure is looking like we're headed for a bout of inflation. Don't buy bonds or lend money or hold cash. Owing money is OK though
Yes I still have them. Selling stocks is a complicated decision. Is the market up? Is the company still doing well relative to my reasons for investing in them? Do I need the money? Have I found a better company to invest in?
As you can tell, I don’t have the same conviction in these other stocks as I do in Tesla. I just don’t follow them as closely. They may be better investments than Tesla, I just don’t know.
For me personally right now, I think I’ll be allocating some money into VC funds. Specially ones that can credibly invest in AI and robotics. I’m hunting those down now, so that’s what I’m focusing my research time on. Alphabet (Google) seems to be the best publicly traded company poised to do well in AI right now, other than Tesla I mean.
As you can tell, I don’t have the same conviction in these other stocks as I do in Tesla. I just don’t follow them as closely. They may be better investments than Tesla, I just don’t know.
For me personally right now, I think I’ll be allocating some money into VC funds. Specially ones that can credibly invest in AI and robotics. I’m hunting those down now, so that’s what I’m focusing my research time on. Alphabet (Google) seems to be the best publicly traded company poised to do well in AI right now, other than Tesla I mean.
BTW, I just looked up DOCU sales growth - from their latest quarterly report:
Looks impressive, but geez, they are a SaaS company in a green field space that has hugely positive tailwinds from COVID. Tesla has had 70% YoY growth in a much tougher industry during the same periods. No wonder Tesla stock is up so much comparatively.
All that said, I suspect the real estate activity uptick we've been seeing should boost their sales next report (reporting beginning of December, I hate off quarter reporting!).
Looks impressive, but geez, they are a SaaS company in a green field space that has hugely positive tailwinds from COVID. Tesla has had 70% YoY growth in a much tougher industry during the same periods. No wonder Tesla stock is up so much comparatively.
All that said, I suspect the real estate activity uptick we've been seeing should boost their sales next report (reporting beginning of December, I hate off quarter reporting!).
OK guys, Rivian is going public probably next week. Latest S-1 here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/...d=R00CF89584490C945D9B95B324AC961B294FF158349
Rivian is raising $9B at about a $60B valuation. Morgan Stanley is leading along with a bunch of other small underwriters. MS will make sure there is a first day pop. While pre-order holders (like me!) get to participate in the directed share program, by my calcs, the most I'll be able to buy at IPO price is $30K or so. And I don't have a MS account, so I won't be able to get anything else at IPO price.
Rivian manufacturing ramp looks good, similar to early days of Model S (actually better than Model S). Rivian literally has 2-3 years of production backlog already, especially when you consider their 100,000 Amazon delivery truck order. With the IPO money, they'll start work on building a second factory ASAP. Rivian is also starting to work on building their own battery cells (like others have also started doing).
All three of their announced vehicles will have tons of demand. Anyways, I think it's worth a few bucks sprinkled their way...
Rivian is raising $9B at about a $60B valuation. Morgan Stanley is leading along with a bunch of other small underwriters. MS will make sure there is a first day pop. While pre-order holders (like me!) get to participate in the directed share program, by my calcs, the most I'll be able to buy at IPO price is $30K or so. And I don't have a MS account, so I won't be able to get anything else at IPO price.
Rivian manufacturing ramp looks good, similar to early days of Model S (actually better than Model S). Rivian literally has 2-3 years of production backlog already, especially when you consider their 100,000 Amazon delivery truck order. With the IPO money, they'll start work on building a second factory ASAP. Rivian is also starting to work on building their own battery cells (like others have also started doing).
All three of their announced vehicles will have tons of demand. Anyways, I think it's worth a few bucks sprinkled their way...
BTW, for those that aren't on the directed share program, there's an argument to be made that waiting until the end of the year before buying Rivian stock on the open market may be the right thing to do.
I am guessing that the reason why Rivian is going public now rather than, say, 6 months from now after they have a healthy production ramp going is they are fearful of the markets tanking in the meantime. It is a real possibility. The Fed is about to taper bond purchases which will cause interest rates to rise. That coupled with inflation numbers which might very well get worse, and the US government having to address raising the debt ceiling may cause a market correction in the not too distant future (like between now and end of year). IF that happens, it'll be a buying opportunity for Rivian shares.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Lemonade have launched auto insurance.
Zillow no longer flipping homes - down 20%.
Zillow no longer flipping homes - down 20%.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I'm on the list with MS and hear that they are shooting for $57-62 per share. What are your expectations post Day-1?
Around $80 a share first day trading is my guess.
How long, or to what price, do you plan to hold your IPO shares?
Note: E*TRADE has Rivian available for people to ask to get in on the IPO, who knows how much allocation they have or will hand out to us normal people.
It’s never a price target for me, I’m not a trader. I learnt that lesson very painfully when I had bought TSLA pre split at $32 and sold soon after at $42 thinking I was a frigging genius and then kicked myself watching the price hit $100 before buying in again.
I now just buy future growth (for growth stocks, of course). As long as the company has significant future growth ahead of it, I don’t sell. Assuming Rivian doesn’t crash and burn, I don’t see selling Rivian for at least two years.
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