What's next for Tesla FSD? Reversing

[heltok]

Today we have a 0.5-2% rollout of a slightly unstable but according to most reviewers greatly improved FSD. The main difference vs V11 being that control is now done by a neural network which we call end2end. It seems to handle most scenarios well, a few scenarios where reliability needs to improve but so far we have not seen anything it never does well.

So what's left?

Imo the next big step will be allowing FSD to decide when to reverse the car and to execute the reverse.

One big advantage will be that the system can then recover from many other mistakes. Like humans have to sometimes recover when we start to make a manoeuvre but later realize that we misjudged the situation. It's an embarrassing move to make but sometimes needed.

It a challenging change, before the car has always been going forward. Doing the move in the wrong situation can be very dangerous.

It will enable actually smart summon(ASS). Maybe this will come together in a release for V13.

Any thoughts on FSD reverse? What else is needed for FSD? (not robotaxi, just hands off 99% of rides, 99% FSD)

 

[drtimhill]

Essentially with V12 this is now a training problem rather than a coding problem. Though dont underestimate the complexities around training.

 

[johnm]

It will enable actually smart summon(ASS). Maybe this will come together in a release for V13.

(Not actually) smart summon has always been fine with reversing.

 

[heltok]

(Not actually) smart summon has always been fine with reversing.

There are many situations such as negotiating with other drivers, pedestrians etc that are very hard to hardcode where n- ASS struggles.

 

[Max Spaghetti]

There are many situations such as negotiating with other drivers, pedestrians etc that are very hard to hardcode where n- ASS struggles.

Yeah... like when I first got EAP on my Tesla and just had to play with n-ASS in a service station car park at what I thought was an appropriate time at 5am with the huge carpark largely empty.

I deliberately parked it on the other side and went and stood under the building overhang with my coffee and tried to summon it to me. There were some garden beds and medians it had to negotiate. It tried, failed, tried again, and then some irritable dudes in a small truck screamed in and tried to turn into the car park lane that my Tesla was driving up the middle of.

Coming head-to head, my Tesla just stopped. The dudes stopped. Obviously waiting for my Tesla to turn further to the side to let them past (which a human would have done). But no, my Tesla just stopped and sat there blocking them.

Feeling guilty, I tried to revert it to "normal summon" mode and just reverse it in a straight line so they could get around (there were garden beds either side at that particular spot), but for some reason it wouldn't do that for me. Ultimately, they reversed and screeched out of the car park like they had seen aliens. They had obviously noticed that no-one was driving the car... I felt a combination of laughter, guilt, and fear of what I would have done if they had jumped out and approached my car with baseball bats.

Needless to say, I've never tried n-ASS in public since.

So, if ASS ever arrives, and is good, then that will be an amazing feat. If FSD is hard, which has proven to be much harder than they thought, then ASS will presumably be even harder. Because roads have rules. Carparks are anarchy, relying on bluff, human nature, rule of the jungle, height is might, ladies first, I'm late so I'm first, don't park an expensive car next to a cheap car, I've only just got started: I wish you good luck in carparks, AI.

 

[SidetrackedSue]

So, if ASS ever arrives, and is good, then that will be an amazing feat. If FSD is hard, which has proven to be much harder than they thought, then ASS will presumably be even harder. Because roads have rules. Carparks are anarchy, relying on bluff, human nature, rule of the jungle, height is might, ladies first, I'm late so I'm first, don't park an expensive car next to a cheap car, I've only just got started: I wish you good luck in carparks, AI.

Excellent summary of the challenges ahead!

 

[gsmith123]

AI Driver on YouTube tested a busy parking lot.

It did pretty well, certainly miles better than V11. Before I saw that video I thought it might be 5 years until Tesla figured out parking lots. In my experience V11 is completely useless in these situations.

There’s a still a long way to go. Actually parking successfully is a fair bit harder than just driving in a parking lot. Multi level parking garages add a whole extra dimension of complexity (literally).

 

[azred]

Today we have a 0.5-2% rollout of a slightly unstable but according to most reviewers greatly improved FSD. The main difference vs V11 being that control is now done by a neural network which we call end2end. It seems to handle most scenarios well, a few scenarios where reliability needs to improve but so far we have not seen anything it never does well.

So what's left?

Imo the next big step will be allowing FSD to decide when to reverse the car and to execute the reverse.

One big advantage will be that the system can then recover from many other mistakes. Like humans have to sometimes recover when we start to make a manoeuvre but later realize that we misjudged the situation. It's an embarrassing move to make but sometimes needed.

It a challenging change, before the car has always been going forward. Doing the move in the wrong situation can be very dangerous.

It will enable actually smart summon(ASS). Maybe this will come together in a release for V13.

Any thoughts on FSD reverse? What else is needed for FSD? (not robotaxi, just hands off 99% of rides, 99% FSD)

Reversing is about the last thing on my list. First is addressing all of the different rules of the road and street signs/markings that vary from the SF Bay Area. I realize there are clips being gathered from everywhere FSD is used but call be skeptical that our cars will understand the differences. For example, car pool lane rules, exit/entry points and lane striping are vastly different in AZ vs CA. In AZ we can freely enter/exit car pool lanes but my two FSD cars often balk. (I’ll bet it would work better a few hundred miles away in CA.)

BTW, does v12 even in the Bay Area recognize school zones and act properly in the presence of a first responder vehicle with lights and sirens? Why that hasn’t been addressed by now is ridiculous. And even more ridiculous is having bizarre windshield wiper performance after all of these years.

 

[gsmith123]

act properly in the presence of a first responder vehicle with lights and sirens?

It's certainly better in V12 than it used to be, for instance in this clip. But dealing with emergency vehicles is a very challenging aspect of driving (one that other operators like Cruise and Waymo have struggled with), and one that probably won't be fully realized in a single release.

So far V12 seems like a big step forward in dealing with situations involving tricky interactions w/ other cars, emergency vehicles, or pedestrians.

 

[drtimhill]

It's certainly better in V12 than it used to be, for instance in this clip. But dealing with emergency vehicles is a very challenging aspect of driving (one that other operators like Cruise and Waymo have struggled with), and one that probably won't be fully realized in a single release.

But recognizing them, and handing control back to the human driver (remember its only L2 atm) is something that should be much easier to do.

 

[heltok]

I think here FSD might have been trying to do the start of a 3 point turn, maybe some of it's training data is video clips where it has prepared for 3 point turns:

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769059878264623603

 

[myThappy]

I have a 2023 model Y which has V11.1. How do I get V12 installed??? I want to try this fsd capability.

 

[JulienW]

I have a 2023 model Y which has V11.1. How do I get V12 installed??? I want to try this fsd capability.

You simply wait until you get the 24.3.x update. Then you install it. Also you don't have FSD 11.1. That is the UI version. You probably have 11.4.9.

 

[myThappy]

Thank you. Is there a way to see which update I have installed?

 

[JulienW]

Thank you. Is there a way to see which update I have installed?

Car: Menu>Software
App: Scroll to bottom and it tells you your software Version and you can hit on Release Notes to see the FSD Beta version.

 

[myThappy]

Just received and installed my 24.8.7 software update. I’m now waiting for my free fsd invitation. Almost Christmas as a child level anticipation.

 

[Supcom]

Just received and installed my 24.8.7 software update. I’m now waiting for my free fsd invitation. Almost Christmas as a child level anticipation.

I don't think that 2024.8.7 has FSD 12 included.

 

[mgs333]

Just received and installed my 24.8.7 software update. I’m now waiting for my free fsd invitation. Almost Christmas as a child level anticipation.

You'll need to wait longer, the invite is only for 2024.3.6 now.

 

[myThappy]

You'll need to wait longer, the invite is only for 2024.3.6 now.

I don’t understand isn’t 2024.8.7 a higher version fsd software? I hope the 8.7 doesn’t refer to August 7th. This is very confusing to me.