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When do we see TSLA at $400?

When do we see TSLA hit $400?

  • June '18

  • July '18

  • Before Q2 report

  • After Q2 report

  • Before Q3 delivery report

  • After Q3 delivery report

  • Before Q4 deliveries

  • After Q4 deliveries

  • 2019

  • 2020

  • never


Results are only viewable after voting.

oneday

Active Member
Nov 29, 2014
1,074
4,793
Bay Area
As Elon says, "Place your bets."

I'll start - Post Q2 conference call.

I know there is a diverse range of bullishness here at TMC, this poll is intentioned to homogenize these views.

Go ahead and share your reasoning if you are so inclined.
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,925
57,607
Los Angeles, USA
Sustainably over $400?

V-Day-2019-1080x580.png
 
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pz1975

Active Member
Supporting Member
Aug 30, 2013
1,650
10,534
Langley, BC, Canada
I do not remember it. Enlighten me?

On another note, I used to think that I would jinx the stock when I made trades. Its funny how I only worry about that when the stock goes down though.
From what I remember, during the peak of euphoria near the then-ATH of $280 in Sept. 2014, someone posted a thread titled something like "Will TSLA be $400 by March [2015]"? The stock proceeded to drop for the next 6 months, bottoming out coincidentally in March.
 
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oneday

Active Member
Nov 29, 2014
1,074
4,793
Bay Area
From what I remember, during the peak of euphoria near the then-ATH of $280 in Sept. 2014, someone posted a thread titled something like "Will TSLA be $400 by March [2015]"? The stock proceeded to drop for the next 6 months, bottoming out coincidentally in March.

Where is my pitchfork?

I bought shares then. Which were in the red for a good long while after that. It really is sad to know in hindsight that the cause of the stock price decline was caused by one of our TMC posts.
 

suwaneedad

Member
Dec 11, 2016
921
1,158
Atlanta
I believe it will exceed $400 sustainably once one of two things occurs: 1. 5000 Model 3s/wk sustainably, or 2. once Tesla raises another $1-2Bn in capital (regardless of whether it is debt or equity or a combo). What's occurred in the past six months that does not get enough attention imo is that Elon has gotten religion on the need to run the company with some fiscal discipline. That is new, and it is big. There is no reason to think that Elon will not succeed at doing so, now that he's bought into the importance of doing so. The man's batting average is 1.000 or close to it; he's not to be trifiled with. As I love to tell my friends who insist on shorting TSLA because they've read the latest wisdom from some journalism major at Bloomberg, "short Elon at your own peril." My TSLA stock winnings have already paid for my PUP, and well I'm on my way to having the LR battery funded in this way as well. Ultimately I want my whole car funded by TSLA stock gains, and have confidence that will occur within a few years.
 
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neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
63,885
Ithaca, NY, USA
Hmm. Let's see. Tesla tends to have high volatility, swinging through a $100 range. It is important to the company (not essential, but important) that the stock be over $360 by March 1, 2019. If it is trading in a $360-$460 range before that, then this is likely, but to avoid "February freakout" situations, it should probably actually be happening earlier. So it would be *desirable* for the stock to hit $400 for the first time before the end of the year.
 

oneday

Active Member
Nov 29, 2014
1,074
4,793
Bay Area
Sayonara July, looks like that eliminated 35% of our most optimistic members.

Not to gloat but I was pretty confident And said so here many times I expected q2 deliveries to underwhelm, and q3 call to be the catalyst to the upside. A broken clock truly is right twice a day.

My options are up 75% today alone. Wowza.

I am a little less optimistic about 400 before q3 deliveries but we might get there. Let’s hope.
 

Orbit

Member
Aug 2, 2018
28
38
Australia
While I'd love to see $400 soon, I'm doubtful that it will happen in the near future.
This is based at least in part on me today having thought "Another day like Thursday and it'll be at ATH and basically $400. So it could be over $400 in a couple of days."
Surely many people are thinking that, and I think it will get priced in and loose momentum.

If Q3 ER reports a profit and reaffirms continuous profit projection going forward, then I think it'll go over $400 then for the first time.

However, I'd be surprised if the "never again under $400" doesn't occur for at least 2 years.
TSLA has swung up and down huge amounts in the past few years, I don't think that will stop until Tesla's destiny has much less uncertainty and risk associated with it.
 
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bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,193
Appleton, WI
If investors want to go long TSLA, why would they wait until after Q3 ER? That might be the logical place where TSLA would take off, so IMO it would make more sense to go long now, to get in before others do. The big risk is off now after ramping to near 5,000. Investors shouldn't have to fear a big drop, barring macros. All of this suggests to me the stock makes a run BEFORE Q3 ER, since it potentially becomes too obvious then that TSLA has turned the corner. A lot will depend upon what the market does. We are heading into mid-term elections, which may be a drag on the markets. So there's that to consider, but it won't be TSLA specific.
 

Orbit

Member
Aug 2, 2018
28
38
Australia
If investors want to go long TSLA, why would they wait until after Q3 ER? That might be the logical place where TSLA would take off, so IMO it would make more sense to go long now, to get in before others do. The big risk is off now after ramping to near 5,000. Investors shouldn't have to fear a big drop, barring macros. All of this suggests to me the stock makes a run BEFORE Q3 ER, since it potentially becomes too obvious then that TSLA has turned the corner. A lot will depend upon what the market does. We are heading into mid-term elections, which may be a drag on the markets. So there's that to consider, but it won't be TSLA specific.

In many ways I think similar to how you do. But not everyone thinks this way.

I don't think present and future TSLA investors are a unified group. They differ vastly in their;
1) understanding of Tesla, including its opportunities and risks
2) risk tolerance
3) investment philosophy
4) whose money they are investing, who they represent and what their motivation is

If it were such a simple and convincing argument to make that the stock price won't have a "big drop", then I don't think TSLA would remain the most shorted US company. (Though I may be wrong, I believe it currently still is the most shorted, and will remain so through Q3.)
Clearly many people DO believe it will/could have a "big drop". Whether their probabilistic assessment is correct is another question, but that perception does exist.

Likewise with big institutions, pension funds etc. I believe that a profitable Q3 would demonstrate in a concrete way, the abstract ideas that Elon has been talking about. With a few profitable quarters in a row, the perceived risk (and actual risk) continues to drop exponentially.

If there were a major TSLA price drop, then I think it would be much easier for various fund managers to justify having invested in such a "risky" investment if it had recently "proven" itself with some successive profitable quarters, rather than a string of loss quarters with a significant amount of negative media coverage and rumors.

Recent profit makes it much easier to answer the imaginary future question of "I'm your client, what were you thinking investing my money in TSLA before the big drop?".

I'm not saying it won't go up significantly before Q3 or before demonstrating profitability, just that there is a good argument that a profitable quarter(s) will create a significant push towards TSLA price increases.

So I think a profitable Q3 report may end up being what gives TSLA the fuel to reach escape velocity past ATH and $400.
 

bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,193
Appleton, WI
In many ways I think similar to how you do. But not everyone thinks this way.

I don't think present and future TSLA investors are a unified group. They differ vastly in their;
1) understanding of Tesla, including its opportunities and risks
2) risk tolerance
3) investment philosophy
4) whose money they are investing, who they represent and what their motivation is

If it were such a simple and convincing argument to make that the stock price won't have a "big drop", then I don't think TSLA would remain the most shorted US company. (Though I may be wrong, I believe it currently still is the most shorted, and will remain so through Q3.)
Clearly many people DO believe it will/could have a "big drop". Whether their probabilistic assessment is correct is another question, but that perception does exist.

Likewise with big institutions, pension funds etc. I believe that a profitable Q3 would demonstrate in a concrete way, the abstract ideas that Elon has been talking about. With a few profitable quarters in a row, the perceived risk (and actual risk) continues to drop exponentially.

If there were a major TSLA price drop, then I think it would be much easier for various fund managers to justify having invested in such a "risky" investment if it had recently "proven" itself with some successive profitable quarters, rather than a string of loss quarters with a significant amount of negative media coverage and rumors.

Recent profit makes it much easier to answer the imaginary future question of "I'm your client, what were you thinking investing my money in TSLA before the big drop?".

I'm not saying it won't go up significantly before Q3 or before demonstrating profitability, just that there is a good argument that a profitable quarter(s) will create a significant push towards TSLA price increases.

So I think a profitable Q3 report may end up being what gives TSLA the fuel to reach escape velocity past ATH and $400.
Excellent points, and just to be clear, I'm definitely expecting continued volatility with routine 15%+ dips. I expect TSLA to continue to trade in range, roughly $300 - $370.
 

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