If investors want to go long TSLA, why would they wait until after Q3 ER? That might be the logical place where TSLA would take off, so IMO it would make more sense to go long now, to get in before others do. The big risk is off now after ramping to near 5,000. Investors shouldn't have to fear a big drop, barring macros. All of this suggests to me the stock makes a run BEFORE Q3 ER, since it potentially becomes too obvious then that TSLA has turned the corner. A lot will depend upon what the market does. We are heading into mid-term elections, which may be a drag on the markets. So there's that to consider, but it won't be TSLA specific.
In many ways I think similar to how you do. But not everyone thinks this way.
I don't think present and future TSLA investors are a unified group. They differ vastly in their;
1) understanding of Tesla, including its opportunities and risks
2) risk tolerance
3) investment philosophy
4) whose money they are investing, who they represent and what their motivation is
If it were such a simple and convincing argument to make that the stock price won't have a "big drop", then I don't think TSLA would remain the most shorted US company. (Though I may be wrong, I believe it currently still is the most shorted, and will remain so through Q3.)
Clearly many people DO believe it will/could have a "big drop". Whether their probabilistic assessment is correct is another question, but that perception does exist.
Likewise with big institutions, pension funds etc. I believe that a profitable Q3 would demonstrate in a concrete way, the abstract ideas that Elon has been talking about. With a few profitable quarters in a row, the perceived risk (and actual risk) continues to drop exponentially.
If there were a major TSLA price drop, then I think it would be much easier for various fund managers to justify having invested in such a "risky" investment if it had recently "proven" itself with some successive profitable quarters, rather than a string of loss quarters with a significant amount of negative media coverage and rumors.
Recent profit makes it much easier to answer the imaginary future question of "I'm your client, what were you thinking investing my money in TSLA before the big drop?".
I'm not saying it won't go up significantly before Q3 or before demonstrating profitability, just that there is a good argument that a profitable quarter(s) will create a significant push towards TSLA price increases.
So I think a profitable Q3 report may end up being what gives TSLA the fuel to reach escape velocity past ATH and $400.
