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When will Model 3 be available if you don't reserve?

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Tesla has repeatedly said that they plan on delivering 500K cars in 2020. There ramp up will not be linear but an S curve. Maybe 10 Model 3s in 2017, 200K in 2018, 400K in 2019, and 440K in 2020 (with 60K Model S & X). In this case anybody ordering now (or maybe anytime this year) you should expect a 2019 delivery date. I may be optimistic but even if it's 10 for 2017, 60K for 2018, 300K for 2019, 440K for 2020 they will still get their car in 2019.
I like your optimism!
 
I'm not going to worry about it.

The initial projected launch is still 18 months away, and we don't know whether Tesla will stick to that schedule, or how long it will take to ramp up production and clear the backlog of orders.

I would not advise anyone to attempt to time a lease so that the lease will end when they think they will get their Model 3. In past years, people with a Model X on order have gotten caught off guard because the X was delayed past the end of their lease. I think the best strategy for people is to plan on keeping their existing cars as long as possible, or buy a lightly used Honda or Toyota that will still be in good running condition 3-4 years from now (so it can be easily resold, or kept until Model 3 is delivered).
 
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I can't decide whether to reserve a Model 3. How much sooner would I get the car vs. not reserving and just going out to buy one when delivery starts? I have a lease on a Nissan Leaf through Dec. 2018, so reserving might actually get me the car sooner than I need it. I would really like to time the end of the lease with a new Tesla. Should I reserve or not?

If you do not reserve you never get one! they are built to order for each customer.
reserve now and you will be late 2018 if the new production goals are met.
when you get the notice to configure yours ask what the time from configure-payment to delivery lag time is. then you can delay if needed.
 
If you do not reserve you never get one! they are built to order for each customer.
reserve now and you will be late 2018 if the new production goals are met.
when you get the notice to configure yours ask what the time from configure-payment to delivery lag time is. then you can delay if needed.
OP already did on 3/31 as mentioned in post #5 above. ;)
 
I actually liked Model 3 because of it's price point and wanted to buy it. But the delivery is the only thing keeping me away from booking.
As I could not find a proper resource for Canadians before, I gathered some info and published an article on my blog here: Tesla Model 3 Features, Availability, and Price
I am sure there could be some wrong information as I obviously not well knowledgeable about the company. But I love Tesla and would appreciate your suggestions to improve it.