Where is the enhanced autopilot?

[diplomat33]

What people optimistic about Tesla FSD don't get is that level 3 is already very challenging because it means "liability".
The constructor is liable to accident happening with its system, so own insurance involved, and it will not be easy to come.
Audi A8 the only real level 3 system, is limited to traffic jam on limited portions with lidar, below 50kmh because the accident risk and consequence is much less.
Level 3 on highway which would be the most convenient feature for Tesla need to be much more reliable than now because as the recent accidents demonstrate the consequences over 100kmh are much more serious and its better to let it to the driver fault and liability.

I don't think anyone thinks that FSD is easy. Of course, we know even L3 presents some serious challenges. But what separates the optimists from the nay-sayers is that we have confidence that Tesla can figure it out. The nay-sayers just want to focus on how difficult the problem is.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't care how negative some people are, I know AP2 has a lot of untapped potential and good things are coming. I've noticed that owners seem to swing back and forth between frustration and excitement. Right now, a lot of owners are feeling frustrated and understandably so with the slow progress of Autopilot, but when new Autopilot features do come, it will be a happy day again for owners.

 

[victorplus]

I don't think anyone thinks that FSD is easy. Of course, we know even L3 presents some serious challenges. But what separates the optimists from the nay-sayers is that we have confidence that Tesla can figure it out. The nay-sayers just want to focus on how difficult the problem is.

I'm not a nay-sayer, just trying to understand how realisticaly it works. Vision alone FSD is possible, but even with radar is 100% sure by construction not to offer enough redundancy to get to very high safety level. Mobileye in is security academic paper is talking about a goal of 10-9 accident per hour, when the human driver is 10-6. If you follow Tesla philosophy of being better than human and the authorities are ok with that we can perhaps reach 10-7 with Tesla actual hardware. But that would mean accepting, and for Tesla insure, accident and fatalities due to the system failure, that would not have necessarily occurred with a simple human driver.

The 0 accident responsabilty methodology of mobileye (through redundancy) and Waymo (through fusion ) has all the chance to be widely deployed and accepted (already the case for Waymo).
The statistical better approach, with limited redundancy of Tesla is more doubtful.

 

[diplomat33]

Mobileye in is security academic paper is talking about a goal of 10-9 accident per hour, when the human driver is 10-6. If you follow Tesla philosophy of being better than human and the authorities are ok with that we can perhaps reach 10-7 with Tesla actual hardware.

Can you explain what 10-9 and 10-6 mean? Do you mean 10 to 9 accidents per hour for MobilEye but 10 to 6 accidents per hour for humans? That can't be right that humans would have fewer accidents. I have not read the paper you are referring to. Thanks.

 

[victorplus]

Here is the Mobileye reference paper :

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.06374.pdf

and some application cases :

https://www.mobileye.com/responsibility-sensitive-safety/rss_on_nhtsa.pdf

The regulatory basis around self driving safety is still in its infancy but there is a better chance that in the future they will rely on formal a priori assessment than on the at posteriori statistical approach Tesla is talking about.

 

[eager0]

Interest-free loans for FSD / EAP development?

I bought my 75D in late 16, just as the AP2 HW was announced. So I've got the AP2 HW, but didn't cough up the extra cash to get EAP. Until now, I've been convinced that I was missing out. But if EAP today is not functionally different from the standard AP I'm currently rolling with, I'll keep it.

The Tesla ownership roller coaster continues!

 

[diplomat33]

Here is the Mobileye reference paper :

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.06374.pdf

and some application cases :

https://www.mobileye.com/responsibility-sensitive-safety/rss_on_nhtsa.pdf

The regulatory basis around self driving safety is still in its infancy but there is a better chance that in the future they will rely on formal a priori assessment than on the at posteriori statistical approach Tesla is talking about.

Thank you very much. I will check it out.

 

[diplomat33]

Here is the Mobileye reference paper :

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.06374.pdf

and some application cases :

https://www.mobileye.com/responsibility-sensitive-safety/rss_on_nhtsa.pdf

The regulatory basis around self driving safety is still in its infancy but there is a better chance that in the future they will rely on formal a priori assessment than on the at posteriori statistical approach Tesla is talking about.

I get it now. It was a formatting issue. Instead of 10-9, you meant to type 10^-9 ie 10 to the power -9. That makes perfect sense.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Interest-free loans for FSD / EAP development?

I bought my 75D in late 16, just as the AP2 HW was announced. So I've got the AP2 HW, but didn't cough up the extra cash to get EAP. Until now, I've been convinced that I was missing out. But if EAP today is not functionally different from the standard AP I'm currently rolling with, I'll keep it.

Do you have another Tesla that has AP1? If not, I'm not sure what AP you're "currently rolling with" if you don't have EAP.

 

[eager0]

Do you have another Tesla that has AP1? If not, I'm not sure what AP you're "currently rolling with" if you don't have EAP.

Nope. I ordered it before EAP was announced, and paid the AP cost. I received an email after my order was finalized that said I could pay extra to upgrade to EAP, or keep the base AP package. The delivery specialist was surprised they even made the car like that.

 

[diplomat33]

Nope. I ordered it before EAP was announced, and paid the AP cost. I received an email after my ordered was finalized that said I could pay extra to upgrade to EAP, or keep the base AP package. The delivery specialist was surprised they even made the car like that.

What?!? By "base AP package" do you mean the AP1 autopilot? So, your car is AP2 HW but they installed AP1 Autopilot on it? I did not know that was possible. Wouldn't AP2 HW cars automatically get AP2 Autopilot?

 

[eager0]

What?!? By "base AP package" do you mean the AP1 autopilot? So, your car is AP2 HW but they installed AP1 Autopilot on it? I did not know that was possible. Wouldn't AP2 HW cars automatically get AP2 Autopilot?

Exactly. The DS was reading the Monroney sticker and saying, this doesn't make sense! He finally shrugged, said "this is a rare car," and sent me on my way.

 

[diplomat33]

Exactly. The DS was reading the Monroney sticker and saying, this doesn't make sense! He finally shrugged, said "this is a rare car," and sent me on my way.

WOW. I did not know that.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Nope. I ordered it before EAP was announced, and paid the AP cost. I received an email after my order was finalized that said I could pay extra to upgrade to EAP, or keep the base AP package. The delivery specialist was surprised they even made the car like that.

Ah. I was actually in that small group of people as well but went ahead and upgraded before taking delivery. Basically we placed orders for AP1 at $2500 but then AP2 hardware was announced with EAP at $5000. They let people who had ordered AP1 stick with that price if they wanted. Looks like @eager0 gambled and saved some cash but still has the option to upgrade to EAP later. Depending on how long he keeps the car, he might've saved $2500 over what I paid (assuming he never upgrades).

 

[dbldwn02]

Interest-free loans for FSD / EAP development?

I bought my 75D in late 16, just as the AP2 HW was announced. So I've got the AP2 HW, but didn't cough up the extra cash to get EAP. Until now, I've been convinced that I was missing out. But if EAP today is not functionally different from the standard AP I'm currently rolling with, I'll keep it.

The Tesla ownership roller coaster continues!

Agreed. I only bought EAP because I wanted Adaptive Cruise Control. I wish they sold it separate for $2500 or something. Autosteer is useless for my commutes and on the one interstate that goes through my town. Too much construction all the time.

 

[KyleDay]

Exactly. The DS was reading the Monroney sticker and saying, this doesn't make sense! He finally shrugged, said "this is a rare car," and sent me on my way.

Can you elaborate as to how you know you have the old AP1.0 Software?

-Can you do auto lane changes on local roads?
-Does it read (visually) speed limit signs?
-Does it show cars, Trucks and Motorcycles in the display in front of your steering wheel?

If the answer isn't yes to all three above, you simply got EAP for the AP price and are stuck with EAP in its non-existent form like the rest of us.

 

[eager0]

Can you elaborate as to how you know you have the old AP1.0 Software?

-Can you do auto lane changes on local roads?
-Does it read (visually) speed limit signs?
-Does it show cars, Trucks and Motorcycles in the display in front of your steering wheel?

If the answer isn't yes to all three above, you simply got EAP for the AP price and are stuck with EAP in its non-existent form like the rest of us.

Nope, nope, and nope. But the difference is that when EAP is available, I won't get those features. I'm positive Tesla won't gift EAP to me, especially since I explicitly declined to pay for EAP. However, I'll be sure to follow-up if EAP ever does see the light of day.

 

[croman]

Nope, nope, and nope. But the difference is that when EAP is available, I won't get those features. I'm positive Tesla won't gift EAP to me, especially since I explicitly declined to pay for EAP. However, I'll be sure to follow-up if EAP ever does see the light of day.

Yup he's had to deal with the slow roll out just like us. Except at some point he won't get features like people who don't pay at all don't get features but get things like wipers or auto brights when we all do.

So whatever features he does have will also continue up improve and he'll get the safety of ap2 hw.

 

[Bladerskb]

At the shareholder meeting, just a few minutes ago, Musk was asked when some of the "enhanced" features of EAP, like on-off exit ramp will be released. Musk actually gave an interesting insight. He said the autopilot team is working on 2 different methods for on-off exit ramp feature, one method is kinda complicated and he admitted is not working well and another method that is simpler. He said he used the simpler method in his car last night and it worked. He thinks that Tesla could probably release the simpler method for on-off exit ramp feature in the next couple of months.

I find that revelation interesting because it tells me that Tesla is trying different ways of doing the same feature. It also tells me that part of the hold up on new features might be that they are making some things too complicated.

This is sorta what i expected them to do. a very rudimentary lane change using cameras instead of ultrasonic that works only in light traffic above a specific speed limit.

 

[_jal_]

I forget where it is on this thread, but regarding stopped vehicles, I had an experience today. I was driving along a rural highway and a garbage truck had pulled over. It was maybe half on the shoulder and half on the road. As I came upon it I thought it’d be interesting to see if it stops on its own. I’ve had it stop for cars in the lane, but this was a case where the stopped vehicle wasn’t all the way in the lane. Just a split second before I was getting ready to tap the brake the car started automatically breaking. So I still can’t speak to fire truck recognition, but it appears garbage truck recognition is done! 2018.18.2