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Where, Oh Where, Is the Next Batch of Invites?
- Thread starter suwaneedad
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- Model 3 Ordering Production
Foxhound199
Member
There are a few options in my area. I've been switching back and forth between different companies' introductory offers for the past 15 years. This is probably the sort of riffraff behavior of a non-owner that Tesla is desperately trying to delay coming in contact with.It’s different if you effectively have a monopoly...
I'm surprised Tesla didn't slice it this way: if you are/were the first owner of a particular Model S and/or Model X, you move to the front of the line. This way, Tesla would not be giving preference to those who grabbed a used S/X along the way, including say yesterday. It's similar to buying Tesla stock in the open market...that action does nothing to directly provide capital to Tesla. All the buyer of a used S/X has done to support Tesla is to keep resale values up, which helps keep new prices up. I can only conclude that Tesla decided that is really important to Tesla's success to date. But I'm still surprised by it.
I think it had more to do with avoiding bad publicity by giving cars to people who are used to Tesla quirks and obviously like the cars well enough that they are willing to overlook them. Given the unfinished nature of the software they were probably worried about a bunch of people getting cars with unfinished features and complaining loudly (basically the same reason they started with employees when even some basic functionality didn't work).
The argument for "Owners will accept the flaws better" is a fine argument for owners who experienced those pains and still support Tesla. How is that a valid argument for someone who purchased their first Model S last week though? Are they going to understand the growing pains in their Model 3 that they configured this week?
The other argument bandied about is the "They paid Tesla $80k+, they deserve it". Sure, most of those people paid Tesla for a line skep. But what about third party sales that are also skipping the line? They paid Tesla nothing, and still are allowed to jump ahead.
In the end, I'm not too chuffed about it because we will eventually all have our cars and will look back at this time as just another memory in life.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
I bought my Tesla from Tesla as a CPO, that purchase supported the company. I would slice it and say only New or CPO sales would qualify.
Someone else who bought one private party might take issue with that..
Tesla is going for goodwill with current owners, and excluding any will end up making them unhappy.
The difference in in wait time for non-owners for the few owners who slipped in reservations over the last year is likely only a couple of weeks at most. Most non-owners are unhappy on principle alone not on logic.
Let me start by saying Tesla can do as it pleases. However I should point out that the primary source of funding for Tesla is the capital markets (over $11B in stock issues/funding based on my estimate). Current owners, while important, are not the primary source of funds for Tesla. (based on an estimate of avg selling price of 100K, gross margin of 25% and 300K car sold = $7.5B)
That being said... the situation is clear, owners get unlimited priority. We non-owners can either deal with it or cancel order. Let's hope the latter doesn't happen or the shareholders will get toasted.
Good luck to all of us in line.
Start with having to wait 2 years+ for something you really want.
Then add having delivery estimates pushed out 2 times already.
( "almost there... almost there... FOOLED YA!" )
Add to that fears that the tax credit may start phasing out before you get to buy one.
Add to that the news that existing owners seem to be getting priority on as many as they want now ("how many tax credits do I need this year?")
Add a "scalpers market" has emerged on eBay with owners profiting by using their priority to flip extra Model 3s for markup profit.
Add to that owners contacting me via PM offering to get me a car sooner if I pay to take one of their reservation spots.
Add to that some nebulous news of "something special for line waiters" that never really seemed to materialize.
Add to that the speculation that they may be getting ready to favor Candian owners over us USA line waiters (based on Candian delivery estimates for AWD moving foward).
Anyways, if you aren't experiencing all of this, you probably don't understand the building angst.
Then add having delivery estimates pushed out 2 times already.
( "almost there... almost there... FOOLED YA!" )
Add to that fears that the tax credit may start phasing out before you get to buy one.
Add to that the news that existing owners seem to be getting priority on as many as they want now ("how many tax credits do I need this year?")
Add a "scalpers market" has emerged on eBay with owners profiting by using their priority to flip extra Model 3s for markup profit.
Add to that owners contacting me via PM offering to get me a car sooner if I pay to take one of their reservation spots.
Add to that some nebulous news of "something special for line waiters" that never really seemed to materialize.
Add to that the speculation that they may be getting ready to favor Candian owners over us USA line waiters (based on Candian delivery estimates for AWD moving foward).
Anyways, if you aren't experiencing all of this, you probably don't understand the building angst.
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Some people have privately told me "once production really ramps up all of those concerns will get washed away quickly".
So a big piece of these are the production delays that are making everything drag out and happen in slow motion.
So a big piece of these are the production delays that are making everything drag out and happen in slow motion.
The other thing is owners selling reservation spots or delivered cars on eBay/Craigslist to brand new buyers who will pay a premium to avoid the lines.
We already have many Model 3s going to buyers who have never owned a Tesla before.
Hopeful thought is that the Canadian's cutting in line is to defer US production to postpone when they reach 200k US cars. They may be able to stretch it out to Q3, ie July 1st.
The one I can't get over is reprioritizing the line so that the cost of the car completely supersedes your line placement. Sounds like someone would be able to order a $49k first production car at the last minute ahead of someone waiting 3 years for a base $35k car. We're seeing Tesla invent new options and moving the base car to the very end of the line.
This is supported by the fact that if you make a new reservation today, you will get the same "early 2019" date for the base car as someone who reserved on the 2nd day two years ago.
Overall this may make current owners and people willing to fork over $60k for the presumed $35k car feel good, but it risks souring the experience for the general public that Tesla will sooner or later need to address.
They talk about "owner loyalty" but it starts to come across like "club members" and "not welcome".
" There are two kinds of people in this world... 'customers' & 'prospects' "
Since customers are 'proven' and prospects are 'uncertain', I can see why they would want to focus on one group much more than the other.
I think somehow we thought the $1K deposit would put us more in the 'customer' bucket, but I guess the 'fully refundable' part makes it not so much of a commitment.
I wonder if the initial reservation fee was non-refundable how things would have played out differently.
" There are two kinds of people in this world... 'customers' & 'prospects' "
Since customers are 'proven' and prospects are 'uncertain', I can see why they would want to focus on one group much more than the other.
I think somehow we thought the $1K deposit would put us more in the 'customer' bucket, but I guess the 'fully refundable' part makes it not so much of a commitment.
I wonder if the initial reservation fee was non-refundable how things would have played out differently.
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I wonder how much of "once you are in the club you stop looking at the line outside" will happen?
I am not sure how much my perception will change once I finally become an owner.
At the moment I feel like there is a bouncer between me and the club, and they don't seem to want to let me in.
I am not sure how much my perception will change once I finally become an owner.
At the moment I feel like there is a bouncer between me and the club, and they don't seem to want to let me in.
Foxhound199
Member
I think I found a decent analogy for this in a recent vacation to Orlando. There, you'll find Disney and Universal each have their own strategy for managing what is essentially sanctioned line cutting. Disney's method seems born out of a need to better manage and distribute lines throughout the park and throughout the entire day. There are extra line cutting perks to staying at Disney's resorts, but largely the system can be enjoyed by anyone and everyone is prevented from abusing it, so no one really feels they are getting a bad deal.
Universal, on the other hand, has a much simpler approach. Pay them a bunch of extra money, and they'll let you cut in front of all the other poor schmucks who could merely cough up $100+ for the base admission. You can cut in line an unlimited number of times, and there seems to be absolutely no benefit to the crowd management of the park beyond extra income for Universal and longer waits for everyone else. Naturally, this fosters feelings of resentment against both Universal and the paid line cutters that was completely absent from Disney. I witnessed several incidents of taunting and disparagement between the line waiters and line cutters.
So basically, Tesla needs to not be Universal here. You can't let greed make otherwise happy paying customers feel resentment towards you. Even if you ultimately get their money, how likely are they to be repeat customers? How likely are they to recommend you to their friends? You can certainly reward your earlier or best customers (like Disney's method does), but try not to let their reward feel like punishment for everyone else.
Universal, on the other hand, has a much simpler approach. Pay them a bunch of extra money, and they'll let you cut in front of all the other poor schmucks who could merely cough up $100+ for the base admission. You can cut in line an unlimited number of times, and there seems to be absolutely no benefit to the crowd management of the park beyond extra income for Universal and longer waits for everyone else. Naturally, this fosters feelings of resentment against both Universal and the paid line cutters that was completely absent from Disney. I witnessed several incidents of taunting and disparagement between the line waiters and line cutters.
So basically, Tesla needs to not be Universal here. You can't let greed make otherwise happy paying customers feel resentment towards you. Even if you ultimately get their money, how likely are they to be repeat customers? How likely are they to recommend you to their friends? You can certainly reward your earlier or best customers (like Disney's method does), but try not to let their reward feel like punishment for everyone else.
sreams
Member
I'm not sure it's fair to call it greed. It is one thing to be greedy and maximize profits, and another to simply ensure the survival of a company.
RedOctober
Member
I do like your analogy. Being a current owner I was surprised that they are allowing people who want a Model 3 use their friends or family members accounts to skip the line. Some have only recently put in their orders but are getting cars with a month. Just not sure how the transfer of ownership works in various states. I know where I live you would pay to transfer the car into someone else’s name and you must pay taxes on the car. There are exceptions like a gift transfer but its not that simple. The government wants their money.
NRG4All
Member
It will be interesting to know if Tesla will stop shipping M3s until they fix the 12V problem, or will they release them to the field and as ICE manufacturers do, fix it in the field. This may explain why the invites have slowed.
What 12v problem? And I hope you don’t point to a thread about a single isolated incident as an answer.
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