Why hasn’t Tesla published the range & HP on the new great 4680 battery? Sr. VP has been driving around Texas with a new MY (4680) for days now. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Msicario]

You misread my assumptions. The only thing assumed is current production and yield relating to current 4680. We know they have 2-4 4680 linea at Austin. 200,000 cars per year is 200,000,000 cells per year. That is 550,000 cells per day. 380 cells per minute. With 4 lines at Austin, that’s 95 cells per minute per line. More than 1.5 per second. And the reported 1 million sitting at Kato would be 2 days worth of production if they are at production speed that matches full ramp at Austin.

This would be very easy to verify with the drone footage we have seen of the battery lines. You’d at least see people at the end of the lines stacking finished cells for transport to the battery pack production area.

As I type this I look to verify my number and I find this (also the source of the 1 millions cells number):

4680 batteries, what is the advantage?

Until the point they need to lower the price for competitive reasons. But if they can’t lower the price across the fleet (produced in Texas vs ca) then they will be their own competition. Yes, eventually once both assembly lines are converted they would have more price flexibility. But those...

teslamotorsclub.com

13 machines produce 6300 cells per day (one training Texas employees had 82% reject rate). Roughly 500 cells per machine per day. Even if they are only running 8 hours per day and they shift to 24 hours a day that’s 1500 cells per machine per day. That changes the above math to needing 350+ machines running 24 hours a day to produce. Looking closer at the numbers, machines 109, 206 and 208 produced close to 900 good cells per day. Using those numbers reduces the number of machines needed by roughly half. Close to 200 machines. The range of that day for all the machines is 103 to 965 cells produced. That is a large range and shows you how far Tesla is from getting 4680 production remotely close to what they need for full production. Also, if 14 machines is enough to be the 10th largest facility in the world, they need much more production to reach that slot (currently around 25 GWh per year).

If current 2170 are 5000mah, same energy density would be 27,000mah for 4680. 4416 2170 at 3.6v is 79.8kWh. This means about 820 4680 needed for same capacity. That’s basically one machine per car per day at current best case scenario yields. The 1 million 4680 cells at 27ah each is equivalent of 97MWh. To get to #10 biggest factory they need to produce 250 times this in a year. 250 million cells across 14 machines is almost 18 million cells per machine. Almost 50,000 cells per machine per day. They are currently producing 900 under best case scenario. 2700 if running continuously assuming they are at 8 hours per day now. That’s 1.3GWh. Best case. Accounting for averages, about half of that. Long way to go to get to the 10th largest battery factory in the world as currently configured.

All this hype is just that, hype. Do the math. Elon always speaks of the future. Every statement he makes has a whole lot of unsaid IFs behind it. iF we get the yields and production rates we think we can get, IF we have enough lines, IF we have enough raw material, THEN it will be the 10th largest battery factory in the world.

Today Feb 17 Drone fly over Texas plant.

OR MAYBE they simply did not include those stats in that graph. For all we know they have 1000 of those machines spitting them out like bullets.
That reports has an incredibly small amount of information.

However I do agree with the overall comment, Tesla will need A LOT of machines making A LOT of cells to satisfy demand.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

When will Model Y LR get 550 mile range will it be with 4680 or with the next iteration in the year 2023 or 2024?

It's unlikely the Model Y will ever have 550 mile range - Musk is on record that ~400 is where range-anxiety pretty much becomes a non-issue and the cost+weight of a larger pack is pointless

 

[Mrbrock]

OR MAYBE they simply did not include those stats in that graph. For all we know they have 1000 of those machines spitting them out like bullets.
That reports has an incredibly small amount of information.

However I do agree with the overall comment, Tesla will need A LOT of machines making A LOT of cells to satisfy demand.

Considering they have 14 lines running in Reno, I find the similar number of machines in Kato to be very likely. At $1million each (can’t remember where I read this but this number sticks out for some reason) needing 1000 machines is $1 billion. No way is the cost effective to switch to 4680.

If this were true, we will never see a significant number of Ys with 4680, anywhere…
If 13 machines only produce 6300 units per day, it simply cannot work. And it does not fit with the assumption that production cost is smaller.
Question: how many 2170 cells does a machine produce per day?
That’s the rate they probably aim for 4680.
Or we forget not only Y, but also cybertruck and Semi…

Your question is answered in my post right above yours. 150 million cells per line per year. Divide by 365 to get cells per day. You need 1/5th the number of 4680 cells to equal d
same storage capacity output. So they only need 30 million cells per machine.

Agreed, current pace does not work. They need to figure out the problems with efficiency then work on scaling speed. This is all part of normal production ramp. Everyone on here seems to think that Elon saying they have 4680 means they are at full ramp already. In the two months they have supposedly been building cars in Austin, they have 100 parked outside right now. 1-2 per day. Based on current production, Kato Rd is producing about 8 cars worth of cells per day. So battery capacity is more than factory capacity as of now but as Austin ramps (look at Shanghai to see what they will try to emulate) they need cell production to ramp as well if they plan to only make 4680 Ys in Austin. Because they seem to be having problems with 4680 production (and haven’t even started in Austin), they will likely ramp with 2170 and do small production of 4680 vehicles (MYP?). If you doubt the battery production claims, 1 line in Reno is 100+ jobs. At no time have any drone shots of the battery lines shown anywhere close to that many people working on each machine. According to the data provided, they were training Texas people at Kato in late January, probably still are.

 

[Giampigua]

It's unlikely the Model Y will ever have 550 mile range - Musk is on record that ~400 is where range-anxiety pretty much becomes a non-issue and the cost+weight of a larger pack is pointless

Musk said that because he has no car with higher range.
I remember that when model S gained some 10 miles range his comment was “the higher range car has now more range!”.
When he told that 400 range is enough was when they cancelled the plaid+, advertised with more than 500 miles.
Not to say about the promised roadster with some 600 miles range.
I believe he is not so happy that lucid has 100 miles more range than model S.
Simply Tesla today is not able to achieve that, until 4680 ramps up.
Then if market will ask for more range they will deliver it.
It is not a matter of efficiency: were efficiency a matter, V8 ICE engines would have never been produced.

 

[Mrbrock]

Musk said that because he has no car with higher range.
I remember that when model S gained some 10 miles range his comment was “the higher range car has now more range!”.
When he told that 400 range is enough was when they cancelled the plaid+, advertised with more than 500 miles.
Not to say about the promised roadster with some 600 miles range.
I believe he is not so happy that lucid has 100 miles more range than model S.
Simply Tesla today is not able to achieve that, until 4680 ramps up.
Then if market will ask for more range they will deliver it.
It is not a matter of efficiency: were efficiency a matter, V8 ICE engines would have never been produced.

They could produce 500 mile range right now. They have over 1million 4680 cells at Kato. Putting them in Model S wouldn’t be a problem. Tesla likely did this engineering exercise and didn’t like the end result. It would be a $175k+ car and they didn’t anticipate the demand to cover the cost of re-engineering the car. They wouldn’t need to produce more than 5 per day. They have sold over a million vehicles with 350 miles or less range and have an 8 month waitlist to buy more at those same features.

 

[Giampigua]

They could produce 500 mile range right now. They have over 1million 4680 cells at Kato. Putting them in Model S wouldn’t be a problem. Tesla likely did this engineering exercise and didn’t like the end result. It would be a $175k+ car and they didn’t anticipate the demand to cover the cost of re-engineering the car. They wouldn’t need to produce more than 5 per day. They have sold over a million vehicles with 350 miles or less range and have an 8 month waitlist to buy more at those same features.

Now I agree. It is not a matter of efficiency or non request from the market.
It’s a matter of not being able now to deliver a 500 mile range at an acceptable price.
Let’s see what will happen when Nio (with the promised 150 kWh battery) BMW (rumours of 135) and others will arrive

 

[Msicario]

NIO can’t export the ET5 to the U.S but that model will dethrone the Tesla M3 and MY in China this year and years to come..ET5 is available with the 75, 100, 150 kilowatt-hours in capacity for over 500+ Range at $51K, 482 HP..

 

[Brando]

If your assumptions are correct, Austin will never reach full capacity.
I can’t believe that.
There must be something else we don’t know.
If they planned to produce Ys and other models in Austin, all having 4680 batteries, I assume they planned to install enough battery production lines to feed them.

Goals vs actual production; ramping up is often --- hell?

 

[origingalatic]

Considering they have 14 lines running in Reno, I find the similar number of machines in Kato to be very likely. At $1million each (can’t remember where I read this but this number sticks out for some reason) needing 1000 machines is $1 billion. No way is the cost effective to switch to 4680.


Your question is answered in my post right above yours. 150 million cells per line per year. Divide by 365 to get cells per day. You need 1/5th the number of 4680 cells to equal d
same storage capacity output. So they only need 30 million cells per machine.

Agreed, current pace does not work. They need to figure out the problems with efficiency then work on scaling speed. This is all part of normal production ramp. Everyone on here seems to think that Elon saying they have 4680 means they are at full ramp already. In the two months they have supposedly been building cars in Austin, they have 100 parked outside right now. 1-2 per day. Based on current production, Kato Rd is producing about 8 cars worth of cells per day. So battery capacity is more than factory capacity as of now but as Austin ramps (look at Shanghai to see what they will try to emulate) they need cell production to ramp as well if they plan to only make 4680 Ys in Austin. Because they seem to be having problems with 4680 production (and haven’t even started in Austin), they will likely ramp with 2170 and do small production of 4680 vehicles (MYP?). If you doubt the battery production claims, 1 line in Reno is 100+ jobs. At no time have any drone shots of the battery lines shown anywhere close to that many people working on each machine. According to the data provided, they were training Texas people at Kato in late January, probably still are.

All these are assumptions based on very limited information. We don’t even know who else is lined up to produce all of the 4680 down the line. Just because you can add the number correctly doesn’t mean it’s complete.

Time will tell. Soon enough

 

[origingalatic]

Musk said that because he has no car with higher range.
I remember that when model S gained some 10 miles range his comment was “the higher range car has now more range!”.
When he told that 400 range is enough was when they cancelled the plaid+, advertised with more than 500 miles.
Not to say about the promised roadster with some 600 miles range.
I believe he is not so happy that lucid has 100 miles more range than model S.
Simply Tesla today is not able to achieve that, until 4680 ramps up.
Then if market will ask for more range they will deliver it.
It is not a matter of efficiency: were efficiency a matter, V8 ICE engines would have never been produced.

This. Elon will always says it’s the best until it is not. If 400 range is enough, until other EV catches up. Sadly it won’t be for a while

 

[ucmndd]

When will Model Y LR get 550 mile range will it be with 4680 or with the next iteration in the year 2023 or 2024?

It will be a Thursday.

 

[Mrbrock]

All these are assumptions based on very limited information. We don’t even know who else is lined up to produce all of the 4680 down the line. Just because you can add the number correctly doesn’t mean it’s complete.

Time will tell. Soon enough

Please stop denying facts.

Fact, there are 14 production lines in Reno producing 40GWh of cells. You can do simple math based on 2170 known facts to see how many cells are being spit out. Unless you believe Elon is lying when he says Kato Rd is 25GWh (that’s how large the 10th largest battery factory is) then we know how many 4680 cells it needs to produce per year since each 4680 cell has 5x capacity of 2170. Whether it’s 14 lines or 1000 lines, averaging 500 cells per day is not feasible financially. And we haven't seen 100 battery production lines in Austin.

Fact, Panasonic has signed on to start producing 4680 cells in 2023. Don’t you find it strange that the company who has enabled Tesla to get to the production they have today through thei partnership in Reno is waiting 2+ years after battery date to start production? They have way more experience than Tesla and they know these cells will be an engineering challenge. It should be expected that Tesla will struggle to produce the cells efficiently and at the speed they need.

For someone who doesn’t believe what Elon says or that he will always change his tune based on what is actually happening, to always be on the correct side of the narrative, you sure want to believe that the things we know are wrong and there has to be another truth where 4680 production has been perfected.

 

[Mrbrock]

All these are assumptions based on very limited information. We don’t even know who else is lined up to produce all of the 4680 down the line. Just because you can add the number correctly doesn’t mean it’s complete.

Time will tell. Soon enough

Catching up on other threads and in case you missed it, here is another fact provided by Tesla that backs up the leaked information:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494754912311418881

Production started as late as July:

Tesla updates 4680 battery cell development at its Kato Rd. facility

Tesla has finally updated the public about the development of its 4680 battery cells, giving new details regarding the development and performance of the new chemistry and additional details about the structural battery pack and how it is performing in crash tests. 4680 Battery Cell Unveiled at...

www.teslarati.com

July to January is 6 months. 1 million divided by 26 weeks is 38,500 per week. That is 7700 per day for a 5 day week. If you factor in 7 days, that’s 5500 per day. Funny, the leaked report was 6249 with one line running slower than normal.

6 months to produce cells for 1200 vehicles. 200 per month, 50 per week, 10 per day. Facts.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Catching up on other threads and in case you missed it, here is another fact provided by Tesla that backs up the leaked information:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494754912311418881

Production started as late as July:

Tesla updates 4680 battery cell development at its Kato Rd. facility

Tesla has finally updated the public about the development of its 4680 battery cells, giving new details regarding the development and performance of the new chemistry and additional details about the structural battery pack and how it is performing in crash tests. 4680 Battery Cell Unveiled at...

www.teslarati.com

July to January is 6 months. 1 million divided by 26 weeks is 38,500 per week. That is 7700 per day for a 5 day week. If you factor in 7 days, that’s 5500 per day. Funny, the leaked report was 6249 with one line running slower than normal.

6 months to produce cells for 1200 vehicles. 200 per month, 50 per week, 10 per day. Facts.

It seems pretty obvious that since Tesla is planning to move all Model Y's to 4680 eventually, they are not planning to keep the above current state of production. Yields at the one plant have been low, and they're iterating to tighten it up. Iterating is best done at small scale - no reason to fire up more lines or have additional suppliers start production until you have the production process itself sorted out.

Yields will improve, this is not Tesla's first battery rodeo, and as they do, Tesla will obviously fire up a lot more cell making capacity since you are right the current rate would not come close to meeting the needs of Model Y production, let alone the future demands from CyberTruck and Semi.

 

[Giampigua]

Please stop denying facts.

Fact, there are 14 production lines in Reno producing 40GWh of cells. You can do simple math based on 2170 known facts to see how many cells are being spit out. Unless you believe Elon is lying when he says Kato Rd is 25GWh (that’s how large the 10th largest battery factory is) then we know how many 4680 cells it needs to produce per year since each 4680 cell has 5x capacity of 2170. Whether it’s 14 lines or 1000 lines, averaging 500 cells per day is not feasible financially. And we haven't seen 100 battery production lines in Austin.

Fact, Panasonic has signed on to start producing 4680 cells in 2023. Don’t you find it strange that the company who has enabled Tesla to get to the production they have today through thei partnership in Reno is waiting 2+ years after battery date to start production? They have way more experience than Tesla and they know these cells will be an engineering challenge. It should be expected that Tesla will struggle to produce the cells efficiently and at the speed they need.

For someone who doesn’t believe what Elon says or that he will always change his tune based on what is actually happening, to always be on the correct side of the narrative, you sure want to believe that the things we know are wrong and there has to be another truth where 4680 production has been perfected.

I do not contest that today they are not able to produce enough 4680.
I contest that it is a financial issue and that they will not solve the issue soon.
Financially because they say that 4680 cost significantly less and will be more profit. Where there is profit there will always someone ready to finance.
From the production standpoint, we know that they installed production lines in Austin. They can’t be the same as the pilot ones in Kato. Differently, again, it would mean that they completely mistaken the whole Austin investment

 

[MontyFloyd]

Catching up on other threads and in case you missed it, here is another fact provided by Tesla that backs up the leaked information:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494754912311418881

Production started as late as July:

That report is 8 months old, Tesla knows they need more machines to make up for slow production as you are pointing out.
Good reason why Berlin is not using 4680 (for now)

Any recent data on how many 4680 making machines in existence?

 

[Msicario]

I do not contest that today they are not able to produce enough 4680.
I contest that it is a financial issue and that they will not solve the issue soon.
Financially because they say that 4680 cost significantly less and will be more profit. Where there is profit there will always someone ready to finance.
From the production standpoint, we know that they installed production lines in Austin. They can’t be the same as the pilot ones in Kato. Differently, again, it would mean that they completely mistaken the whole Austin investment

 

[Mrbrock]

I believe Tesla has under estimated the development timeline. All of the data from Battery Day was prediction. Until they built and started operating pilot production lines, there is no way to know actual cost. I think they have run into roadblocks they didn’t anticipate and are still trying to make up lost ground. Will Austin (and Fremont) eventually move to 100% 4680 production for MY? Yes, but that is a ways out. We haven’t seen any production from 4680 lines at Austin. They aren’t going to go from never been operated to producing 1 million cells every week before the end of 2022 (That’s only 65,000 cars per year). If they are having trouble with production at Fremont and the lines at Austin are different (as predicted by @Giampigua above), they will have a whole new learning and ramping curve to learn. As also stated, they have lots of experience and will leverage that for 4680. That is why I think they expect the lines they have built to produce the supply they need. Unless they are planning Kato to be permanent battery production, those lines will be moved to Austin. So if there are 4 or so at Austin (missing numbers on the production sheet), then you might be looking at 20 lines total there. At 100,000 cars per year, that’s 80 million cells at 800 per vehicle. 4 million cells per line. 11,000 per day per line running 365 days per year. If they scale to 400,000 that’s 44,000 cells per day. Still a huge ramp. Austin will do it’s shakedown with mostly 2170 (maybe a pilot line with 4680 to make the 1000 or so cars with Kato batteries) and continue to do so until 4680 production ramps up. The ramp timeline is unknown but I can imagine it being sooner than 2023.

 

[origingalatic]

I believe Tesla has under estimated the development timeline. All of the data from Battery Day was prediction. Until they built and started operating pilot production lines, there is no way to know actual cost. I think they have run into roadblocks they didn’t anticipate and are still trying to make up lost ground. Will Austin (and Fremont) eventually move to 100% 4680 production for MY? Yes, but that is a ways out. We haven’t seen any production from 4680 lines at Austin. They aren’t going to go from never been operated to producing 1 million cells every week before the end of 2022 (That’s only 65,000 cars per year). If they are having trouble with production at Fremont and the lines at Austin are different (as predicted by @Giampigua above), they will have a whole new learning and ramping curve to learn. As also stated, they have lots of experience and will leverage that for 4680. That is why I think they expect the lines they have built to produce the supply they need. Unless they are planning Kato to be permanent battery production, those lines will be moved to Austin. So if there are 4 or so at Austin (missing numbers on the production sheet), then you might be looking at 20 lines total there. At 100,000 cars per year, that’s 80 million cells at 800 per vehicle. 4 million cells per line. 11,000 per day per line running 365 days per year. If they scale to 400,000 that’s 44,000 cells per day. Still a huge ramp. Austin will do it’s shakedown with mostly 2170 (maybe a pilot line with 4680 to make the 1000 or so cars with Kato batteries) and continue to do so until 4680 production ramps up. The ramp timeline is unknown but I can imagine it being sooner than 2023.

There is a lot of assumptions being made here. Production difficulties? Yes. But has Tesla ever run a production without issues? So that goes without saying.

Everything else is just that, assumptions based on loose facts. It's a wait and see game at this point, we are very close.

 

[Mrbrock]

There is a lot of assumptions being made here. Production difficulties? Yes. But has Tesla ever run a production without issues? So that goes without saying.

Everything else is just that, assumptions based on loose facts. It's a wait and see game at this point, we are very close.

Which is why I said think a believe, not know for a fact. If all we did here was talk facts this thread wouldn’t exist. Battery Day wouldn’t be newsworthy because the only fact is that Tesla wants to develop a new battery. Period. End of story. It’s fun to speculate and discuss theories and see how it all shakes out. If you can’t see this as a fun discussion about possibilities, you shouldn’t be here.