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Why I am okay with losing the $7500 tax credit

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Yes, I understand that means I could get the LR, an option I would rarely if ever use, for only $1500. That does not make financial sense to me in my particular, specific, unique situation.
Unless you are currently driving a mostly depreciated EV, you forgot to consider that while you wait for the SR, you have the added cost of gas a depreciation of whatver car you drive. Not sure what kind of mileage you do, my saves as much as $200/month driving her Model S vs. a Toyota Sienna she used to have, so $1,500 would pay for itself in 8 months.
 
3 year owner here. 70D which I leased so the difference between the higher mileage option was like $180 a month so I didn't do it.
No regrets.
But.
At a small upcharge, the extra range is worth it.
Longevity - this is minor but real. I have 232 on a full charge, was 240 new (52k miles). EPA was 235.
Milking electricity - I can charge at work/public fairly often. More battery = more free electricity. For me it could be 20 extra kwh a week. At CA rates that is $20 a month.
Life happens. We are unexpectedly in a temporary house. Using 120V. That milking is more valuable.
Wife drives car. Our son stays at inlaws and they meet in the middle at times with exchanges. The RT from our house is 215. She makes it but in the cold, she is drafting. There is a supercharger but she doesn't want to stop.
For me, supercharging is free, so getting free faster is nice.

So no regrets at $180 a month, but at $20? And now? No question.
I have been invited to configure my 3. Terrible time personally. And my S has been so perfect, I am not turning it in at end of lease. The S is still going to be better for road trips so we really don't need the LR. But when my personal financial issues are over, I will configure and I certainly won't need the LR --- but I will get it - unless there is a time line on the D at that point.

The 3 will take the place of the Leaf but hard to justify since the Leaf is not worth much and we have a Tesla for distance.
 
Unless you are currently driving a mostly depreciated EV, you forgot to consider that while you wait for the SR, you have the added cost of gas a depreciation of whatver car you drive. Not sure what kind of mileage you do, my saves as much as $200/month driving her Model S vs. a Toyota Sienna she used to have, so $1,500 would pay for itself in 8 months.
I currently have a Prius Plug-in. It is mostly depreciated. We will keep it as a back up car until we execute our second model 3 reservation in two or three years. We are both retired and really only need one car. Together we drive about 10K to 20K miles per year. Our newish house is paid for and we have Solar City on the roof so the Supercharger system will be rarely used. We do have a Supercharger about 4 miles from our house and I may run over there periodically just to chat up BEV owners. It would be nice if we all had a discreet "TMC" decal to put on a particular place on our cars or a secret handshake or something to identify ourselves. I may put one on anyway. Would love to meet most of you guys and gals.
 
$100,000 Model S, the $7500 tax credit is 7.5% of the sticker price.
$55,000 Model 3 (LR, PUP, EAP, and Paint), the $7500 tax credit is 13.6% of the sticker price
$36,000 Model 3 (SR, Paint), the $7500 tax credit is 20.8% of the sticker price

Availability of the tax credit has the greatest impact on those who would normally be in the market for something like a Honda Accord (23-27k in most common trim levels), but could go for a Model 3 with tax credit. This assumes that the buyer has sufficient federal tax liability to claim the credit.

A Model 3 is roughly half the cost of a Model S at similar range capability, but it is still an expensive car.
 
Yes, but do we know that will be the case after the tax credit is gone? I suspect that if you can't get the discount any more it will mess up resale values less...

The influence will definitely taper in % split over time, though undoubtedly there will still also be influence from another angel past the tax credit expiring for Tesla because the tax credit will remain for the wider BEV market for a while.

Could be. But so far, Tesla’s history has been the opposite:

Why does a Tesla have such high resale value?

That's compared to the Leaf. Which, frankly, has a lot of problems. :p Especially the known and fairly common high battery capacity degradation issue. But just functional range as designed makes it hard to find people where it'll fit and this gets a lot worse once the range has even just more reasonable age degradation.

Tesla (Model S & X) certainly have done reasonably well so far but not particularly stellar within their general market categories. We'll see how well that pans out ultimately when the gap starts to close between them and the nears vehicles that they are remotely like.** I guess we'll see how things development when we move to an order of magnitude increase in supply.

One thing that Teslas very much have going for them is the ongoing after-sale updates. A real issue with a product in a market with fast moving product quality improvements is that year to year improvements can quickly leave prior years in the dust. ICE manufacturers have for a long time done a LOT of finesse to coax out this but they aren't really in the same space. BEVs are in a place where it's going to inherently be easier to have this happen. Those over-the-air updates are a pretty important bulk ward against that.


**Timeline depending on when traditional manufactures get their EV game together, for real. But even without that, if Tesla successfully executes on Gen 4 (I expect 5-6 year timeframe on that, so about the context we are talking here) that's going to be a lot of price pressure from a new car that is inherently significantly lower priced even without a tax rebate, and whatever whiz-bang advancements it comes with.
 
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As someone who got one of the first AP2 cars, I wouldn't be so keen on buying FSD ahead of time. My MX is 14 months old, with EAP, and the truth is that my AP2 cars still lacks AP1 features (displaying cars, truck, motos, and vehicles in adjacent lanes), and has not a single EAP feature yet. Needless to say, Elon overpromised and underdelivered.

My 14 month old AP2 MX shows vehicles in adjacent lanes. Wish it was a 360 view but that that feature is now there with the latest software I downloaded.

Thank you! I did not know that. That will be helpful on certain trips.

For long ones, I'm still taking ICE. No stops needed. If I'm going hundreds of miles, doing 400+ without a stop is nice. I just wanna get there.

For shorter ones, with kids, building in some delay time is not too big a deal. Having a break on a 2 hour ride seems more of a necessity to them than a 7+ hour trip. My main hangup was learning to drive at a slow speed. With your info, it looks like I won't have to. :) Excellent news for me. There are a LOT of Teslas around here, but they all cruise at 65 in the slow lane. I was getting worried.

Went to Vegas as a 60D... came back as a 75D. It took just one nag at me to "slow down" to make it to the next Supercharger before I whipped out the credit card.

The strategy for getting Tesla's should always be the biggest battery you can afford and as a owner now I see now the wisdom in that advice.

Trust me, I am frustrated with the seemingly inability of other Tesla drivers to take advantage of their vehicles. Not sure why they are always smoked by Camrys at red lights, drive below the speed limit, etc.

I can't recall a yellow light I had to stop at in over a year.
 
I can't recall a yellow light I had to stop at in over a year.

I hate to sound like a Debbie Downer but this attitude will get you killed or worse it will get someone else killed at your hands. Yellow lights are meant as a sign to slow down to a stop and the whole notion of beating the red light is a recipe for trouble. Please follow the traffic laws as there are precious lives at stake.

Apologies in advance if you take this note the wrong way and take this as an insult. It was not intended to be one.
 
I hate to sound like a Debbie Downer but this attitude will get you killed or worse it will get someone else killed at your hands. Yellow lights are meant as a sign to slow down to a stop and the whole notion of beating the red light is a recipe for trouble. Please follow the traffic laws as there are precious lives at stake.

Apologies in advance if you take this note the wrong way and take this as an insult. It was not intended to be one.

I understand what you mean and your concern is appreciated.

By no means am I meaning to encourage dangerous behavior. Every good story has some exaggeration to it. :) The answer is not a literal never stop at a yellow. Let's say I need to stop for very few yellows as instant torque lets you cross short distances no ICE can ever match. It's all very situational with variables like
-Is there a car in front of me?
-How far am I from the light?
-Do I/If I need to exceed the speed limit by to make the light? If so, is it going to be 5 over ,10 over?
-Is there any kind of cross traffic, jay walking pedestrians, cars not yielding right of way, etc.

Yellow lights last between 3-6 seconds depending on speed limit of the intersection. I go through my go/nogo decision matrix in 1 second giving me 2 seconds to reach the intersection worst case scenario.

2 seconds is a LOT of road covered by a Tesla for those who utilize its performance capabilities.
 
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Trust me, I am frustrated with the seemingly inability of other Tesla drivers to take advantage of their vehicles. Not sure why they are always smoked by Camrys at red lights, drive below the speed limit, etc.

I can't recall a yellow light I had to stop at in over a year.
Trust me, I am frustrated with aggressive drivers that exceed the speed limit, cut in and out of traffic, and act like they own the road and everyone else should get out of their way. This is the type of driving style that will get themselves killed and other innocent people along with them. There is more to life than taking advantage just because you can.
 
Yellow lights are not a sign to slow down to a stop, a yellow light is simply an sign that a red light is next. There are no penalties for "running" a yellow light as there are no laws in any state I'v ever driven that prohibit going through an intersection during a yellow light, thats the purpose of lights. Also, every traffic light I've ever sat at, there is a delay between one direction getting a red light and the other direction of traffic receiving it's green light. So if you enter an intersection during a yellow light, they only way you are getting hit or going to hit someone is if the other person is already running their red light.
 
This whole traffic light detour is taking us away from the topic so let's end this gracefully. I only brought this up to remind MXWing and others to keep the safety of other drivers in mind when they get behind the wheel of their performance cars. And i appreciate the fact MXWing did not take my reminder the wrong way.
 
By waiting for the SR version, I can save $9000 plus an additional $3750, that equates to $12,750. That sum will buy me a lot of options on the SR version - PUP, EAP, paint, wheels.

Not to say you shouldn't get the SR, but assuming the SR is available for you to order when the rebate is at $3750, your saving is really about $6000, not $12000.

$9000 - $3750 (loss on not getting $7500 rebate) + sales tax on $9000 = ~$6000

I am also thinking about this. If I buy the M3, it will just be my commute car. I have the MX for driving the family on weekends and trips. The SR is plenty enough for So Cal (no snow, not cold, mostly dry road) commute. So do I want to spend $6000 on the LR. It is pretty much about $100 extra a month on payment. Although I really would rather used the $6000 on EAP or AWD.
 
Not to say you shouldn't get the SR, but assuming the SR is available for you to order when the rebate is at $3750, your saving is really about $6000, not $12000.

$9000 - $3750 (loss on not getting $7500 rebate) + sales tax on $9000 = ~$6000

I am also thinking about this. If I buy the M3, it will just be my commute car. I have the MX for driving the family on weekends and trips. The SR is plenty enough for So Cal (no snow, not cold, mostly dry road) commute. So do I want to spend $6000 on the LR. It is pretty much about $100 extra a month on payment. Although I really would rather used the $6000 on EAP or AWD.
I agree, why spend $6000 on something you don't @Need ? Instead I will spend that $6000 on EAP (or PUP, most of us in Cali don't need AWD) and color option.
 
Am I the only one who thinks that $9K for an additional 90 miles seems really overpriced? If Tesla can theoretically build an entire car for $35K including a 220 mile range battery, how could adding 90 miles in capacity cost 1/4 the price of the entire car? I can't help but feel that the real price of this upgrade should be more like $3,000, and the extra $6,000 is Tesla compensating for the fact that they can't really make much of a profit selling $35K cars. This is probably my biggest hesitation to moving forward with the LR battery more than the $6K or so of incremental cost after tax credits. I don't like to feel like I'm being taken advantage of.
 
Am I the only one who thinks that $9K for an additional 90 miles seems really overpriced? If Tesla can theoretically build an entire car for $35K including a 220 mile range battery, how could adding 90 miles in capacity cost 1/4 the price of the entire car? I can't help but feel that the real price of this upgrade should be more like $3,000, and the extra $6,000 is Tesla compensating for the fact that they can't really make much of a profit selling $35K cars. This is probably my biggest hesitation to moving forward with the LR battery more than the $6K or so of incremental cost after tax credits. I don't like to feel like I'm being taken advantage of.
Yep, I agree it's pricey, but the price seems to approximate the market value of the upgrade. I imagine it's at a significant profit, which is why they want/need to sell a LOT of LR cars.