Will 90 get you 100?

[abikepeddler]

(I searched the forum for discussions about this topic but no luck... My apologizes if this is something previously discussed.)

On March 2nd 2016 we ordered a Model X 70D coil with AP1, 6 seat, Subzero, and accessory hitch which was has since morphed into a MX 75D with SUS, AP2, 6 seat and tow package due to Tesla upgrading and changing production details as time has passed. So now that Tesla has required we make the change from the coil suspension over to the Smart Air Suspension it has me thinking how I WOULD have ordered our MX back in March had I known that the coil suspension was going to be pulled off the table. I would have likely stepped up to the 90KW battery at the time which I do not believe you could get coil with.

So my question is this, and I know there is no magic crystal ball for questions like this but some opinions would be welcome... Do you think if I request a change from a our current 75KW to 90KW battery that I might end up with a 100KW battery if delivery is not until 2017? My thinking is this: Because of the delay in getting this car built and to our driveway I am really wanting to wait until the 1st quarter of 2017 to even take delivery. I am suspicious by this time that the non-performance 100D is likely to become an option making the 90KW battery obsolete and removed from the configurator. At least that is what happened in the past when the 70KW because the 75KW. I do not know Tesla's past history as well as many of you so maybe you can tell me what happened in the past when the 85KW became the 90KW and so on..

I think a longer range would be beneficial to my family thus the reason I am considering delaying the car further and spending more on it.

Thanks.. ABP

 

[TacC]

Pure speculation here...

History aside, they could build your car months before you take delivery. If they eliminate the 90, they will likely have or make enough 90kWh packs to fulfill existing demand. You may take delivery in March of a car built in December. Even if they stop producing 90 packs, they could give you a 100 and limit it to a 90 through software.

We also got the free bump from 70 to 75 and the 1/2 priced SAS. We ended up sticking with the 75 for various reasons, although we did consider the 90. I think we had $4250 in free upgrades so it was hard to pass up. You're likely looking at $5000-10000 in free upgrades if this plays out for you, although you'll be paying full freight for SAS so there's that to consider.

Back on topic - there are some differences between that bump and the one you're asking about. For one, no 70s ever went into production. And the step up from 70 to 75 or 85 to 90 is peanuts compared to the leap from 90 to 100. I have the impression that the time, energy and resources that went into making the 100 warrant a hefty price tag. You're forced to take P and L with the 100 because you're paying for the R&D on it. I don't see a meaningful improvement there until the Gigafactory is fully functional.

 

[abikepeddler]

Pure speculation here...

History aside, they could build your car months before you take delivery. If they eliminate the 90, they will likely have or make enough 90kWh packs to fulfill existing demand. You may take delivery in March of a car built in December. Even if they stop producing 90 packs, they could give you a 100 and limit it to a 90 through software.

We also got the free bump from 70 to 75 and the 1/2 priced SAS. We ended up sticking with the 75 for various reasons, although we did consider the 90. I think we had $4250 in free upgrades so it was hard to pass up. You're likely looking at $5000-10000 in free upgrades if this plays out for you, although you'll be paying full freight for SAS so there's that to consider.

Back on topic - there are some differences between that bump and the one you're asking about. For one, no 70s ever went into production. And the step up from 70 to 75 or 85 to 90 is peanuts compared to the leap from 90 to 100. I have the impression that the time, energy and resources that went into making the 100 warrant a hefty price tag. You're forced to take P and L with the 100 because you're paying for the R&D on it. I don't see a meaningful improvement there until the Gigafactory is fully functional.

TacC,

Thanks for such a well thought out response. Really helped narrow down the choices I have to make. All your points make perfect sense including the likely fact that the 100 battery will be a significant jump up in price when and or if it is introduced as a non-Performance variant. From what I can see on Teslas website currently it is a $10,000 bump up in price to go from the 75 to 90KW battery and gain but 20 miles of range. That is why I never was tempted to jump up from the 75 to 90 battery. Just not enough added range. But my calculations for the 100 battery tell me it very well will be north of 300 miles of range when powering a Model X... that makes it more tempting.... but not if the option costs $25,000 or thereabouts.

Thanks again for the guidance...