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Keep it simple: "They have positive cashflow and they're spending a lot on R&D and expansion. The rest is just accounting."
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Keep it simple: "They have positive cashflow and they're spending a lot on R&D and expansion. The rest is just accounting."
smorgasbord
Active Member
I think this is an interesting topic/question to ask and discuss. What happens to TSLA stock price when/if there's another fire caused by a trailer hitch (or other big road debris)?
It will have an impact on the price but absent any other negative trend or other negative catalyst I feel more if a 10-20% price drop that will be short lived and offer a buying opportunity. I also believe that this is not a question of IF, but when it happens again. Just like I know we have not seen the last ICE fire. Storing this much energy, whether in a battery case or gas tank tank will lend itself to fires.
I'm worried this could be a summer trend. In the summer, construction and home improvement projects pick up. Speeds and overall traffic increase. This could be a recipe for Tesie meet Mr. Road Debri. I'm considering lightening my shares In May in the off chance my little theory is correct. It would be a good opportunity to ultimately pick up more shares at a lower price.
The one thing that matters most is post Q1 sales rates and whether 2014 guidance was real or hopeful.
The great unknown is China. HK, treated separately, looks good with its three years of no FR? The cost is much less than say a BMW 7series plus FRT. But can China really sell 4000 or more this year? That is the big question. Veronica Wu basically guided for a 4K sales year this year in China when she said that she thought China would be 1/3 of the year's worldwide growth number. Not total sales number.
the current stock value is meaningless. True meaning comes when Q2 and UK/China results start coming in. Why would "they" bid it up higher with these risks? 200-250 was for bond pricing. Thanks to Mr. jonas. Huge gift for retail investors. Those who were thinking of selling at $200 but who now would not sell at $240 have me puzzled.
so, speaking of China. My friend works in HR for a big automaker who has presence in china. Says the roads are poor in some areas and drivers are horrible since many are new to driving as adults. Driving laws and rules seem rudimentary and there are numerous large accidents. I see above in this thread, trailer hitches are mentioned. Well, the next Tesla armor-piercing fire may come from China due to such driving conditions.
The great unknown is China. HK, treated separately, looks good with its three years of no FR? The cost is much less than say a BMW 7series plus FRT. But can China really sell 4000 or more this year? That is the big question. Veronica Wu basically guided for a 4K sales year this year in China when she said that she thought China would be 1/3 of the year's worldwide growth number. Not total sales number.
the current stock value is meaningless. True meaning comes when Q2 and UK/China results start coming in. Why would "they" bid it up higher with these risks? 200-250 was for bond pricing. Thanks to Mr. jonas. Huge gift for retail investors. Those who were thinking of selling at $200 but who now would not sell at $240 have me puzzled.
so, speaking of China. My friend works in HR for a big automaker who has presence in china. Says the roads are poor in some areas and drivers are horrible since many are new to driving as adults. Driving laws and rules seem rudimentary and there are numerous large accidents. I see above in this thread, trailer hitches are mentioned. Well, the next Tesla armor-piercing fire may come from China due to such driving conditions.
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I think it is too,but like the last few fires... It doesn't change the business, it was just due to undue/unfair media attention. The car is still awesome and management has it's plans rolling it's just a game of execution right now.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
IMO the stock will drop 25% in one month and then in two months this drop will be fully recovered with a further 10% gain.
I actually think the fires have become a non-issue and would be surprised if the next one had anything more then a marginal effect on the stock. Maybe I am giving Wall Street to much credit, but I think anybody with even the slightest common sense would understand that no vehicle is safe from fires because of basic physics, yet the Model S has proven it is incredibly safe when the situation does arise. I also like to believe it became quite clear how unjustly the media blew the fires out of proportion, and in the case of the next fire, any media outlet would look childish to have some sensationalized headline again.
As for the price action, I think we will start to see a lot of people wanting it to go lower so they can BUY. The stock is moving quickly and many people are missing the boat. This is the exact same thing that happened last summer. It kept moving higher and higher and everyone was waiting for some magical great buying opportunity pull back which never seemed to materialize. Then finally when it did after the fires, everyone was too scared to jump in. As far as I am concerned, if there is no serious reason for people to sell, we aren't going to see it pull back. This stock doesn't "fill gaps" or "move up to quickly then sell off". People are buying and holding, thus the limited supply with the increasing demand for shares continues to favor the longs. Will we see a dramatic pull back at some point? YES. Will it happen "just because"? NO.
As for the price action, I think we will start to see a lot of people wanting it to go lower so they can BUY. The stock is moving quickly and many people are missing the boat. This is the exact same thing that happened last summer. It kept moving higher and higher and everyone was waiting for some magical great buying opportunity pull back which never seemed to materialize. Then finally when it did after the fires, everyone was too scared to jump in. As far as I am concerned, if there is no serious reason for people to sell, we aren't going to see it pull back. This stock doesn't "fill gaps" or "move up to quickly then sell off". People are buying and holding, thus the limited supply with the increasing demand for shares continues to favor the longs. Will we see a dramatic pull back at some point? YES. Will it happen "just because"? NO.
Chrisr400cc
Member
Don't China deliveries begin this month? Once the Chinese get cars over there and owners show their friends shouldn't a lot of them buy the stock? That's what a lot of people did in the US. And in Europe also I believe.
What I meant to say is that it will take few days for the market to react to the second Morgan Stanley report that was issued just 8 days after another report that precipitated huge move of stock from $217-$218 to where it is now. The Giga-Factory events, of course, will unfold over many months.
pz1975
Active Member
Moderator's Note: A line of discussion about probabilities and safety was moved to the older thread Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S
Based on short interest I think this is highly possible despite our depressed stock price over the past week or so.
I hope TSLAopt is correct but I am not seeing it. I am 'locked and loaded' for $300+ by Jan '15 and $400 by Jan '16 but I have no short term position because I have NO idea how to read those 'tea leaves'. While I hope for $280 by month's end, I don't see it and voted 'no'.
I had voted no too a week ago when we were at 250. However, despite the lower price now, I think the short interest that is likely at record highs right now sets the stage for another very nice pop soon...just need a small catalyst to pop this new short bubble
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