SureValla
Member
I agree with this (as does seekingalpha) so my question remains: Have they been INVITED to order and are sitting on their hands or has tesla yet to send the design studio email to them.
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Wow - The ramp-up is really happening!
- Thread starter ptsagcy
- Start date
I agree with this (as does seekingalpha) so my question remains: Have they been INVITED to order and are sitting on their hands or has tesla yet to send the design studio email to them.
I'm not sure where you are going with this... do you actually believe Montana Skeptic? He's a bit desperate these days for good reason. If you are an investor and you want to double check yourself, it is pretty easy to debunk Montana Skeptic by reading primary sources of data like the SEC filings. Further, it isn't difficult to understand the global nature of the Model X rollout and how Montana Skeptic cherry picks data or sets up straw man arguments. He's been doing it for so long and it's pretty easy to see through him.
Merrill
Merrill
I think most are waiting to actually see one and drive it, plus some are waiting for all the bugs to be taken care of.
hockeythug
Active Member
SureValla
Member
I'm just trying to understand if the Model X will ever hit Elon's estimate of 50k per year. I'd appreciate if you could point me towards any counter arguments. I don't see any holes in his logic at the moment.
SureValla
Member
Sorry it appears the # is 20,000. Do you have a different # or source saying its something else? I'd be very much interested in it
hockeythug
Active Member
aesculus
Still Trying to Figure This All Out
Didn't this happen with the Model S too? My neighbors experience back in 2012 sounds eerily familiar to my recent experience. High reservation number ending up with low VIN.
cclaygo
Member
To suggest that orders will drop off and that demand is not high is a ridiculous argument based on zero facts. Just use a little logic. How does anyone even know about the Model X right now? Investors know, Tesla lovers know, those that have seen the few on the road know, and those that have ventured to the website know. Very limited marketing has been done at all and yet reservations are very high. They will place a Model X in each store by year end, just like the S, and offer test drives and the number of reservations will jump again. Need proof? See the Model S History.
Wow, if you believe there aren't holes in Montana Skeptic's logic, then you really need to get your head examined. First, there is only one metric that is actually released by Tesla in the IR: customer deposits. It was higher in Q4 2015 on both a QoQ and YoY basis. Tesla never released reservation numbers, only the aggregate customer deposits number and vague statements about reservation or order flow. So to state that they don't release reservation data now is true.. but they didn't before either. There are trackers, but they weren't Tesla. So when the reservation system switches over to an order system, then naturally there are no new reservations to track.
Then, the issue of conversion rates. That one, if you follow the rollout of the Model X closely, is easy to explain. As usual, the bears cherry pick the data to try to prove something they can't so it's easy to see through them. Thus far, Tesla has only built and delivered Model X P90D's for the U.S. market. Not even all options have been available, which means some P90D's couldn't even be in the production queue since the parts weren't available. You can't then extrapolate early production limitations of a single subsegment in a single regional market to imply order conversion for the overall order levels across all regions and trims. Not a single Model X has been delivered to China. Nor to Europe. How can anyone infer the order take rate thus far? The only data point we really have is the customer deposits number that Tesla doesn't provide model breakdown since, well, never. And plenty of other companies do not provide data they don't need to provide. Good luck getting detailed iPhone order data out of Apple. They don't provide breakdowns.
Further, we are still at the earliest stages where Model X demos are not available at the stores. Just how many people order $100k vehicles, sight unseen with no test drives? We will have a much better view of Model X annual demand when people can actually walk into a showroom and see a Model X and test drive a Model X. We simply don't know, but the fact that Tesla has gotten this far without anything but a webcast, a limited road show and the Geneva Auto Show demonstrates the strength of Tesla, not the weakness. Tesla hasn't even offered press vehicles to automotive press or mainstream press. So no real 3rd party reviews yet, just some limited test drive previews. But of course, everything good about Tesla's story is bad in Montana Skeptic's eyes.
A bunch of problems with those numbers. At first glance:
- The number of VIN's currently assigned is around 6000, not 5000.
- That's obviously only orders that have been assigned VIN's. No one knows how many more orders are awaiting VIN's.
- This only includes US orders so far. International orders will be on top of that.
- Lots of reservation holders have not yet been able to test drive an X. There will be a segment of reservation holders that will not want to confirm the order until they can drive/see the car. Therefore, reservation -> conversion ratios are still unknown.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Yea, 2012 was really interesting. Those of us that wanted the car really wanted it, and on Tesla's forum we were all anxiously awaiting. So online, there was very little hint that demand was an issue.
The VINs assigned tell a different story. They went through the waiting list exceptionally quick....those with res #'s as high as 9000 received their cars within a few weeks of those in the 2000's. The interesting difference between then and now, however, is really the first S's didn't have as many issues as the early X's seem to have had. There were some sunroof, 12v battery and handle issues, but overall people were very happy with their cars. Trust me, I was in touch with the first owners discussing build quality since I didn't want to plunk down $100k for a lemon....there were plenty of remorseful Fisker owners around my neck of the woods during that time.
palmer_md
Member
Also, last I checked, not all confirmed 90D orders had a VIN and none of the confirmed 70D orders had a VIN. If still true, this would indicate that many more than the 6000 assigned VINs are already waiting in the (falcon) wings. I don't follow the X forum as closely as some of the others, so please correct me if I'm wrong.
K-MTG
Sunshade Captain of TMC
That is correct, I am a SoCal 90D waiting for a VIN. 6 Seats, Premium Interior, etc.. (the stuff that should get you a VIN)
That author - Montana Skeptic - i guess is having a nice chuckle reading SureValla and other responses. Because that was precisely the motive of writing such a FUD article. Cherry pick some data, add some made up numbers (like 100 reservations per week) and then conjure a worst case scenario - mix them and write eloquently to scare people that sky is falling.
See this thread here. Tesla was cold calling customers to confirm their orders, as they had empty production slots in March. There are also many reports in here about deliveries being advanced by months from initial estimate. I doubt, you will get many unbiased answers in this forum. You will have to read the threads and do your own research. 50k a year is highly unlikely, IMO.
PS: Tesla has fudged VIN assignments since Model S days, so investors can't tell from VIN how many cars were delivered.
So, Just hung up from an unexpected and very interesting phone call from Tesla
They were calling California customers and moving them ahead of other customers who could not receive a car before 3/31 in order to improve their Q1 delivery numbers. I reserved 3 years ago, confirmed my order 12/1/15, and my car won't be delivered until after May. New orders on their website say delivery in second half of 2016. If you think there is a demand problem you aren't paying attention, or you are a troll.
LOL, see the date of that thread: Mar 7th. 23 days is plenty of time to produce and ship any car to anywhere in US. There was even more time to produce and deliver your car, since you confirmed in December. May be, yours is a lemon undergoing extensive body works before it can be fit for delivery. BTW, sorry to hear that Tesla didn't give you any priority even though you reserved 3 years ago, but are delivering to some who reserved this month!
Since you are more interested in insulting anyone with a different opinion or facts that contradict your own view, thereby exposing your own true nature, I will not be discussing anything with you anymore. Good bye.
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