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What he doesn't mention is the Model 3's $35,000 - $8500 tax credit is $26,500. He also ignores the Model 3s projected range of 200+ miles. So, more range for less price.It isn’t yet known what the Model 3 will offer–Tesla’s Model S luxury sedan has a range above 200 miles–but the Leaf also carries a relatively modest price tag of $26,700 after tax credits.
Another negative piece from the WSJ, this time from Charley Grant:
I enjoy winding up the commenters.
I also don't see any serious competitor on the horizon. There's an article on Gas 2.0 that says the BMW i5 will be a hydrogen fuel cell, not a BEV. Tell me that's the best the competition can do? Really? And it's reported to not be available until 2020! I'm not worried at all.But I somewhat agree with the title. As you can read on TMC there are a lot of investors who completely dismiss even the possibility of a serious competitor.
If there is, it won't be from the current crop of automakers. There is just too much money for them by keeping the status quo. 10-20 years is a possibility as ICE becomes even more obsolete.The above 2 posts prove my point. May be the valuation of TSLA makes sense only if you assume there won't ever be serious competition. As a long time TSLA investor - I think that a good possibility of serious competition exists in the next 5 to 10 years.
Is the lack of real competition good for Tesla? Based on developments so far the answer seems to be yes, but if we consider the objective to proliferate plugin EVs then the answer is not so much.
I don't agree.The above 2 posts prove my point. May be the valuation of TSLA makes sense only if you assume there won't ever be serious competition. As a long time TSLA investor - I think that a good possibility of serious competition exists in the next 5 to 10 years.
If the Model 3 is a runaway success then I could see someone like BMW or Mercedes waking up and producing a good EV. Not in the next 5 years though.
If this happened: on one hand they'd have a target to aim for, on the other hand it's a fast moving target. How could they possibly offer something at least on par? I suppose they could deck their EVs out in luxurious materials and such, but if they aren't buying the 'guts' (batteries, drivetrain, Supercharger Network access and such) from Tesla, then what can they honestly produce? According to an ER statement made by Elon, Model 3 is going to likely have the third iteration of motor and at least a second iteration of the battery. Superchargers are on their third already and we've got the possibility of automatic snake connectors coming. I can't see a path to parity for BMW or Mercedes if they wait for Model 3 to be out and about to get serious.
We know that Tesla has a huge advantage on the intellectual capital but GM, VW, Toyota & Co could (if they only wanted) raise more money quicker and at a larger scale than Tesla.
Same thing with the Supercharger network: Of course Tesla has a huge advantage in terms of technology and reach, but if someone would start to spend real serious money, then Tesla would lose that advantage.
The automakers have thousands of talented engineers and lots of resources I'm sure but there currently is no willpower to compete.