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It's been about 5 months since the P100D was announced. By now, the production rate on the battery pack should have increased enough to start building at least a few 100Ds and begin accepting orders, even if delivery wouldn't happen for 6 months.
With new orders being promised for delivery in late Q1, Tesla is past the point where announcing the 100D would have much impact on Q1 sales - plus, there are probably a number of people (like us) who are holding off on placing orders until we seen the 100D (assuming it is priced reasonably).
Like the AP 2.0 announcement last fall, we're all just guessing on what's going to happen. At this point, looking into my crystal ball, it's feeling increasingly like Tesla will announce the Model S/X 100D around when they do the Model 3 reveal. That would give them something new to announce for the more expensive S/X line - which they don't want to kill when the Model 3 is released.
And, if the 100D came with the newer 2170 batteries (lighter weight, lower cost, slightly better performance) and added future access to V3 Superchargers - that would be a huge announcement for the S/X family.
With new orders being promised for delivery in late Q1, Tesla is past the point where announcing the 100D would have much impact on Q1 sales - plus, there are probably a number of people (like us) who are holding off on placing orders until we seen the 100D (assuming it is priced reasonably).
Like the AP 2.0 announcement last fall, we're all just guessing on what's going to happen. At this point, looking into my crystal ball, it's feeling increasingly like Tesla will announce the Model S/X 100D around when they do the Model 3 reveal. That would give them something new to announce for the more expensive S/X line - which they don't want to kill when the Model 3 is released.
And, if the 100D came with the newer 2170 batteries (lighter weight, lower cost, slightly better performance) and added future access to V3 Superchargers - that would be a huge announcement for the S/X family.
Dan43
Member
My feeling is a S100/S100D with 2170 batteries, with the performance increases but not too much to upset current P100D customers.
New seats, or slightly re-design, SC V3 access, improved UI on main software, basically a Tesla version of the Mercedes S-Class car, no compromise quality interior and current tech.
Hunch only mind.
New seats, or slightly re-design, SC V3 access, improved UI on main software, basically a Tesla version of the Mercedes S-Class car, no compromise quality interior and current tech.
Hunch only mind.
The 2170 cells would ensure a good margin on the car for sure, but if those are used for PDL cars, margin would even go beyond 50% perhaps. Seems Tesla doesn't mind being as exclusive as possible, even willing to give up some turnover for it.
Dan43
Member
A new Halo car will evolve, maybe 125kW, and the 100 will trickle down to be the new 90 in time. Timing will decide when this happens I imagine, but it will, as that EV cycle of range and tech has now well and truly been created, driving new sales at the point they are needed and probably won't ever stop.
Don't think this is likely. As posted in other threads, Tesla is contractually obligated to buy the 18650s from Panasonic for several more years. They have publicly states that the 2170's are going first to the Powerwalls (including the announcement when production started at the Gigafactory on 4 Jan). Previous statements indicate that they also need the 2170s (specifically, the lower cost cells) in order to make their price point on the Model 3.
Given that:
(a) 2170s are going first to Powerwalls
(b) they need to use them in the Model 3 for cost reduction purposes (meaning Model 3s will NOT have 18650s)
(c) Tesla is still contractually obligated to buy 18650s
It would seem unlikely that a 100D (or any other S or X) will be changed from 18650s to 2170s for at least several years....
I'm interested how the 18650 purchase olbligation will affect them, and what kind of GWh's we are talking about.
Panasonic is also making 2170's in Asia right now, aren't they? At some point, won't Panasonic actually prefer to make 2170's in stead which make them look better, even if it's going into Tesla products? They'd still charge more than it costs at Tesla's GF, but have a much happier customer, and Panasonic would not be the supplier one stuck in the past decade.
I think beyond the number of 18650's they are OBLIGED to take, it's in Tesla's interest to make AS MANY AS POSSIBE of the 2170's, as SOON AS POSSIBLE. And of course, they need to offer products to put them in, at a price level the market can't refuse.
The 100kWh 18650 pack may be an expensive way to utilize 18650's, or it could in fact be cheaper /kWh than the 90kWh.
So for 100kWh cars, 18650 may well be the go-to place for a while from a cost of application standpoint.
It's nice to get costs and revenue nicely lined up, but it doesn't matter of course whether a type of cell goes into one product or the other. The cells are bought from the same money, the sales revenue goes into the same register.
For Model 3, likely to have a small pck by volume, 2170's are likely the only way to reach 100kWh. Which I bet they'll try to sell. To have a 400 mile EPA car, and the option to squeeze front page getting performance figures. Model 3 has no party tricks like wacky doors (likely a HUD though which Model S/X get first anyway), but it being lighter would make a 100kWh version sickeningly quick. Possibly even quite impressive around a track. The range will get headlines as well. Why complain of no free supercharging (it's cheap as we now know), if you'll skip most of them anyway?
Same with the Model S/X, to reach 125kWh or so without totally redesigning the chassis, 2170's will be paramount.
One option I've not seen discussed though, is that Tesla indeed has a significant chemistry update in the 2170 (making 130kWh quite realistic for S/X), but this new chemistry might also be applicable to the 18650 format. If Panasonic could upgrade the 18650 (it happened only from 85 to 90kWh since 2012 as I remember, a pitiful level of advancement over half a decade), the 100kWh pack might actually become a 110kWh pack while reducing $/kWh. Such an upgrade to the 18650 would also impact all other products they might put it in. The 60/75 might require fewer cells, or could be upgraded to 65/80. They might decide to keep the price the same to please buyers.
My main question is how Tesla will handle the transition to vastly lower kWh cost. In Model 3, it's just a new smaller car and it comes with cheaper to make cells. But Tesla aren't the only one benefitting from cost drops in cells. More and more BEV's come to market, albeit no direct Tesla competition just yet. By 2020 the BEV market may well be quite mature all at once. How will Tesla go from charging top dollar for the P100DL to offering a similarly performing car with 2170 cells, no need for the Ludicrous upgrade, and likely even larger range as a much lower production cost?
Tesla is still charging buyers like cell costs are at 2012 levels, and as if there is unlimited supercharging included. Now, implying 15 years car life, it's more like $1200 in energy for free in a ~$160K car. That has around 30-50% profit margin. Once 2170's hit Model S/X this margin could well surpass 50%. Crazy for a car.
S100D with 2170's should not cost Tesla a dime more than a S60/75D cost them today. And way less than the S60 did in 2012 before any sort of rampup at Panasonic.
Tesla needs to make margin, some say. But which car maker ever did it to this (Apple) degree? Yes, few car brands survive, and Tesla enjoys the fruits of a monopoly now. But one day VW or GM will make a decent BEV that will be made at similar cost, without the crazy margin. And if Tesla just drops prices to hold on to their market, how to sell the timing of it to 100,000's of recent Model S/X owners? Can they afford to just let S/X sales plateau while they focus on new cars that are higher volume?
As long as Tesla has an edge in kWh cost (if they do at all), it's important to make as many as possible, and sell the products to put them in. The cells will be key profits drivers until the margin have to be normalized.
Tesla used suction seats, as does the highest-end Germans, though. They are different from a Lincoln, I believe. They do not feel like sitting on a wet towel as they actually just remove air and moisture from the skin, not make the seat cold. It is a very subtle and IMO quite luxurious feature.
I am sad to see it go.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Electric GT unveils stripped-down Tesla Model S P100D with 2.0-sec 0 to 60 mph acceleration
Electric GT, an all-Tesla and all-electric racing championship, recently announced that they will use the Tesla Model S P100D instead of the Model S P85+ for their race car. They unveiled their modified version at the annual Autosport International Show in Birmingham today and claimed some impressing new specs. While they first aimed to use the P85+ for its powerful rear-wheel-drive motor, the new dual motor P100D was just too much of an improvement to be ignored for their championship.
Electric GT strips the interior of its race cars, which reduces significantly the weight of its vehicles.
Musk recently said that the acceleration from 0 to 60 mph could be improved to 2.1 seconds in a stripped down Model S P100D:
Electric GT, an all-Tesla and all-electric racing championship, recently announced that they will use the Tesla Model S P100D instead of the Model S P85+ for their race car. They unveiled their modified version at the annual Autosport International Show in Birmingham today and claimed some impressing new specs. While they first aimed to use the P85+ for its powerful rear-wheel-drive motor, the new dual motor P100D was just too much of an improvement to be ignored for their championship.
Electric GT strips the interior of its race cars, which reduces significantly the weight of its vehicles.
Musk recently said that the acceleration from 0 to 60 mph could be improved to 2.1 seconds in a stripped down Model S P100D:
Dan43
Member
Rather than repost the whole discussion, here is the thread and the post I had with respect to the 18650 contractual requirement (it's post 189)
EAP HW2 - my experience thus far... [DJ Harry]
EAP HW2 - my experience thus far... [DJ Harry]
The slick tires used on a race car should already bring a significant improvement, a P100DL can't deliver full available torque right due to traction restraints. Normally a weight reduction should also help. To amount to a 0-60 that's not sub 2.00 the same way Elon is now talking about 2.34 would surprise me.
Funny, i personally have the same feeling - with every day passing without news on the 100d such a scenario of a interesting S/X tech update package announced with the M3 2/3rd reveal gets more probable. But no one of us outside of Tesla knows, and there is also some wishful thinking from someone with a probable April production
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Alex D
Member
It would make sense if the new 100D comes with the 2170 cells. Elon / Tesla always stated that new tech will first find its way into the Model S / X line before Model 3. Since we are pretty sure by now that the Model 3 will come with the 2170 cells, it would make sense to include them in the Model S / X line up before the Model 3 Reveal Part 3, which is supposed to happen this quarter. So my guess is that we will have the announcement for the 100D right before or with the Model 3 Reveal Part 3.
hasselboxster
Member
i remember reading that the 2170 cells are a different size, and my immediate reaction was that it would involve a larger redesign effort than the obvious replacing of older cells. that, combined with the fact that Tesla has stated their purpose would lead me to thinking we'll first see them in automobiles in the 3.
i would also second the opinion that if there is any type of new in-car technology (such as HUD) that we'd have to see that in S/X first, and would make its way in there very soon - i.e. end of march/april timeframe - along with 3rd model 3 reveal.
i would also second the opinion that if there is any type of new in-car technology (such as HUD) that we'd have to see that in S/X first, and would make its way in there very soon - i.e. end of march/april timeframe - along with 3rd model 3 reveal.
Drucifer
Active Member
I agree on this. Tesla doesn't want anyone to pass on buying an Model S now and wait to buy a 3 later because the 3 is going to have something that the S doesn't have. The only thing the 3 will have that can't be had on a Model S will be a lower price - and an easier to park form factor.
As @drklain has pointed out and is elaborated in the link he/she posted, Tesla has a contractual obligation with Panasonic to buy 2 billion 18650s which is around 282,000 90 KWh packs (7104 cells each). 100 KWh packs have more cells and the 60/75 packs have less. The way to burn through their contractual obligation faster is to build more 100 KWh packs. When the 100D comes out, sales of the 90D will drop in favor of the larger battery. They may drop to a point Tesla will discontinue the 90D entirely.
The 2170 will probably not make it to the S/X before the Model 3 is well into production, but Tesla is field testing the cooling system for the 2170 packs in the new 100 KWh pack. They probably will hand build some test mules with the 2170 to test in Model Ss and Xs, but the public won't see those cells in cars until the Model 3 comes out.
Once Tesla has met their contractual obligation with Panasonic for 18650s, or they renegotiate the contract, or the contract term expires (it's a little vague whether the contract has a termination date or not), Tesla will switch the S and X lines over to the 2170 based packs. But they are stuck making packs with the 18650 for now.
I expect when they retool to make S/X packs with the 2170s, the capacity of the packs will change to reflect whatever the most reasonable capacity is with the new cells. I don't know what that might be. The 2170s are a bit more energy dense than the 18650s but they take up more space and there will likely be fewer of them in the pack.
As for when the 100D will come out, it's anybody's guess. I suspect it will be timed to boost sales as soon as they start to slack off. Right now the end of free supercharging is probably keeping sales strong. When that ends tonight, there will be a slump in sales, but they will have a healthy backlog to clear. When they put a dent in the backlog and it looks like a slump in production is coming down the pipe is when they will probably announce the 100D. I suspect this will be in a month or so.
Drucifer
Active Member
I wouldn't expect to see the 2170s until they do a full refresh on Model S/X - probably sometime around 2021-22 I would guess.
As for a 100D, They won't be able to ship them this quarter, and they don't want to Osborne the 90D, so I expect the announcement to be in the first couple of weeks in April.
As for a 100D, They won't be able to ship them this quarter, and they don't want to Osborne the 90D, so I expect the announcement to be in the first couple of weeks in April.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Why wouldn't they be able to ship them this quarter? I expect the 100D announcement to sound like: "The 90D is being replaced with the 100D. It will cost an additional $xxx [fill in a reasonable number]. Customers wishing to upgrade their existing 90D orders may do so for that price. Those not wishing to do so will get their 90D as originally ordered."
I expect the reasonable number to be about $4K.