No reason why it should take that long. The critical point is giga factory with enough supply. They could for instance keep the 60/75kWh pack on 18650 and migrate the larger ones to 2170 until they contract is fulfilled. I assume this 2 billion cell contract is that contract signed in 2014, by end of 2017 it will probably will be at least 75% satisfied.
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No reason why it should take that long. The critical point is giga factory with enough supply. They could for instance keep the 60/75kWh pack on 18650 and migrate the larger ones to 2170 until they contract is fulfilled. I assume this 2 billion cell contract is that contract signed in 2014, by end of 2017 it will probably will be at least 75% satisfied.
henderrj
Active Member
A lot of discussion about the 2170 migration is here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/why-model-s-x-will-not-see-2170-cells-any-time-soon
We should know more in the next 60 days.
The 18650 commitment was made before the Gigafactory was online - and the new Tesla agreements with Panasonic. Since they both have strong commitments to the Gigafactory (and will likely also partner on a 2nd Gigafactory in Europe), there should be room on adjust the 18650 commitments. Plus, even if Tesla starts making 2170/100 battery packs for the Model S/X, they could continue making 18650 battery packs for the shorter range Model S/X versions.
A 2170 version of the P100D battery pack, might even provide a slight performance increase, which would justify keeping the list price the same, and allowing Tesla to make an even higher margin on the performance version, while allowing them to introduce a 100D at close to the current 90D price.
Still waiting to hit the order button...
The 18650 commitment was made before the Gigafactory was online - and the new Tesla agreements with Panasonic. Since they both have strong commitments to the Gigafactory (and will likely also partner on a 2nd Gigafactory in Europe), there should be room on adjust the 18650 commitments. Plus, even if Tesla starts making 2170/100 battery packs for the Model S/X, they could continue making 18650 battery packs for the shorter range Model S/X versions.
A 2170 version of the P100D battery pack, might even provide a slight performance increase, which would justify keeping the list price the same, and allowing Tesla to make an even higher margin on the performance version, while allowing them to introduce a 100D at close to the current 90D price.
Still waiting to hit the order button...
I haven't read that thread yet but the last time someone created one of those "will not see xxx any time soon", it was about AP2 and then AP2 hardware was announced a few weeks later.
Drucifer
Active Member
I could very well be wrong, but Tesla tends to announce changes the last week of March - mid April, and again the last week of September - mid October, for the most part.
Due to scheduling closing to factory the first week of every quarter. It's not a coincidence.
The main benefit of the 2170 battery is cost right? I really don't know how Tesla are going to introduce 2170 to S/X without hurting resale value too much or without lowering the cost of current trim levels.
Aside from cost benefit, the newer chemistry of 2170 is likely the other highlight. And that could probably be used in 18650. Particularly since Panasonic are the ones in partnership with both cell types.
Given that, I imagine battery changes will be more gradual than a full battery cell swap, accompanying cost reflection, forced S/X pack redesign, and early end to initial contract agreement.
e.g. I imagine S/X will get the 2170 *chemistry* improvements in 18650 first. With this, all S/X models will get something like, at no extra cost: a range bump, more cycle durability, and faster charging potential. Then next year, they redesign the S/X packs and use 2170 cells which also provide a range bump but not a dramatic increase without the new chemistry + charging rate compounding on it.
Edit: to stay on topic, I would speculate 100D will not have 2170 cells but we get a charging / battery chemistry update along with the 100D announcement. Possibly with an introduction of say a 65(s/w limited)/80 trim options, and discontinuation of 60/75/90 soon after.
Aside from cost benefit, the newer chemistry of 2170 is likely the other highlight. And that could probably be used in 18650. Particularly since Panasonic are the ones in partnership with both cell types.
Given that, I imagine battery changes will be more gradual than a full battery cell swap, accompanying cost reflection, forced S/X pack redesign, and early end to initial contract agreement.
e.g. I imagine S/X will get the 2170 *chemistry* improvements in 18650 first. With this, all S/X models will get something like, at no extra cost: a range bump, more cycle durability, and faster charging potential. Then next year, they redesign the S/X packs and use 2170 cells which also provide a range bump but not a dramatic increase without the new chemistry + charging rate compounding on it.
Edit: to stay on topic, I would speculate 100D will not have 2170 cells but we get a charging / battery chemistry update along with the 100D announcement. Possibly with an introduction of say a 65(s/w limited)/80 trim options, and discontinuation of 60/75/90 soon after.
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Then Tesla har the opening of the Gigafactory for the press in the summer they said that first 2170 batteries would go to Tesla energy, after that it would go to Model lll testing and production and about 6-9 month after the production started it would go to Model S/X and the fact that Tesla use to be little late I believe it will come in the fourth quarter this year.
This is a very logical sequence too, from the perspective of production organization and product deployment expectations.
A hypothetical question: couldn't a battery pack use just a "few" of the new cells just to get a few extra kWhs and increased charging speed?
A hypothetical question: couldn't a battery pack use just a "few" of the new cells just to get a few extra kWhs and increased charging speed?
No, the way the packs are designed the cells need to all be balanced, so putting cells with different capacities would be a problem.
They are about 10% more dense by volume. But, they are also 70mm in stead of 65mm. And will be fitted upright again. So the pack utilisation improves by ~7.7% compared to the super dense 100kWh on sale now. That makes for 119kW, before a chemistry update that might (should) bring more density improvement by volume.
I can't get good insights on the effect the new cell size and (especially) chemistry might have to charging speed. If Tesla manages to make a cheaper cell that has the same or better chemistry from a per volume standpoint, for (let's say) also double charging speed, that'd be HUGE. Pretty much the end of the downside of charging vs refueling.
More power-density focused batteries can (dis)charge much faster than Tesla's. But, they are heavy on a per kWh basis. If Tesla can split the difference, very good density by weight and vastly improved charging speed, that will chance the way the general public views BEV's.
Now its here just $3000 more expensive then 90d wish is way lower then I thought.
That's a pretty good price. I'd definitely go for it if I was buying today.
They also combined the interior choices like they did with the X.
They also combined the interior choices like they did with the X.
Good point. That may be one reason who upgrading an order to it means (according to current info) forfeiting unlimited Supercharging...
They may also want to keep the non-Performance big battery pricepoint at a certain level, as 90D will be out at some point likely, so not too big a of change...
That's correct. Sounds like they would cancel existing order and transfer deposit to a new order so no unlimited supercharging and no perforated seats.
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