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15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]

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I'm guessing we will hit 72Gw this evening. will we be able to meet demand, there are not large industrial loads running right now so nothing to cut other then residences. tomorrow will be interesting when people go back to work... i think my work will be wishing they had the other three 3Mw generators, we got one now and i'm guessing they will be installing one each year for a total of four.
it is 10.7 degree at my house now...
You may be lucky tomorrow because of the President's Day holiday reducing industrial demand. Hopefully, it will warm up by Tuesday.
 
and I'm still making 0.9 - 1.4kw at 9:30 am

56x 320watt panels and iq7+ inverters.
OP, another thought came to mind and you might already know this, yet when you mentioned in the title that it is 15 degrees, it sort of implied to me that you may think low temperature would generate less energy? If so, that is wrong. It is actually the opposite. Some people also think that really hot weather allows more energy generation when the sun is out. Also false, Production is actually reduced as the modules get hotter.
 
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Tomorrow it is supposed to be partly sunny here but sunny to the south. PV will be helpful.
Looks like we'll be OK tonight unless something drops offline. I think all industrial loads have already shut down by request and probably will not start tomorrow. There is also instantaneous load that will drop if frequency drops. My house heater is holding but running all the time. We've closed some of the vents in unused areas so we don't use as much energy heating the house.
There's always camp mode if the electricity stays off for any length of time. But then the chance of frozen pipes really goes up.
 
56E524C0-BC9B-4071-AD3B-23E0007F92DD.png
My power is out.
 
Rotating outages, man I feel for you guys. I know homes down south aren't insulated for these extreme conditions either. Crap read your power is out. 62F inside is awfully cold already. Solar and no Powerwalls? No gas heat? I worry about people getting sick. Hope your rotating outage isn't too many hours. Bad enough with covid out there. Some of my palm forum friends in Texas and surrounding areas are understandably freaking out about the palms and other vegetation they'll likely lose but losing heating indoors doesn't even compare. Our area had one of these freezes that lasted over a week or so a few years back, got down to 25F where I was at and no fun. I know someone I think in College Station was saying Monday was expecting a low of 5F so you're right there with them.

I noticed that pile up in Ft. Worth the other day occurred on an overpass section of highway. Not surprised given there's just cold air flowing under the raised section. Stay safe and hope your power gets restored.

Let some water drip in your sinks so hopefully the lines don't freeze and crack the pipes. This is going to be bad for so many people.
 
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Rotating outages, man I feel for you guys. I know homes down south aren't insulated for these extreme conditions either. Crap read your power is out. 62F inside is awfully cold already. Solar and no Powerwalls? No gas heat? I worry about people getting sick. Hope your rotating outage isn't too many hours. Bad enough with covid out there. Some of my palm forum friends in Texas and surrounding areas are understandably freaking out about the palms and other vegetation they'll likely lose but losing heating indoors doesn't even compare. Our area had one of these freezes that lasted over a week or so a few years back, got down to 25F where I was at and no fun. I know someone I think in College Station was saying Monday was expecting a low of 5F so you're right there with them.

I noticed that pile up in Ft. Worth the other day occurred on an overpass section of highway. Not surprised given there's just cold air flowing under the raised section. Stay safe and hope your power gets restored.

Let some water drip in your sinks so hopefully the lines don't freeze and crack the pipes. This is going to be bad for so many people.
And one of the reasons folks say they moved from California to Texas is the power outages we have had. Interesting
 
And one of the reasons folks say they moved from California to Texas is the power outages we have had. Interesting

With all their oil and gas there I was surprised they were having rotating outages. However with such severe temp drops all over and severe demand on the system I guess understandable. Brutal however, as being without heat for any periods of time they are now facing has got to be way worse from a health standpoint than I guess our situation here was. Albeit danger and smoke from our huge wildfires wasn’t great either. Adding icy roads and danger of car accidents or stalls and no gas or electricity for cars, well they just really have it bad. Going to be a huge economic hit even on top of covid shutdowns (or do they have those there given the mask/maskless climate?).

I was wondering last night how those who have maybe moved from Calif to Austin for their jobs at Tesla already are feeling about the move now. Maybe they have good insulation and solar/PWs in their new homes but I’m guessing the vast population there is freezing in the cold. Also wonder how PWs would perform under these conditions. Where you site the PWs would be important.

Situations like this during the winter is why I still prefer to have two sources of energy to the house and PWs hopefully would continue to keep power to a gas furnace blower during a long outage. Will be curious how those in Texas who installed solar and PWs this past year and were affected by the outages do.

I didn’t get the impression @CrazyRabbit had PWs? I know a few Texans getting solar were opting out of battery back up from a cost recovery standpoint for their area. Let’s face it, it sounds like from the weather maps that other areas of the country might be in a similar situation with winter storms knocking out power as well.
 
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My panels are under about 4” of snow and ice. Made 300 Wh yesterday! Haha.

Portland, OR area. One of the worst ice storms in a long time. Some areas have over 1.5” of ice.

And just like that, as soon as the sun came out and temperatures picked up, all of that snow and ice came shooting off the panels as a giant 40’ x 25’ sled. Gutters are still intact! It shot right over the top onto a lower roof section (which I hope is OK).
 
With all their oil and gas there I was surprised they were having rotating outages. However with such severe temp drops all over and severe demand on the system I guess understandable. Brutal however, as being without heat for any periods of time they are now facing has got to be way worse from a health standpoint than I guess our situation here was. Albeit danger and smoke from our huge wildfires wasn’t great either. Adding icy roads and danger of car accidents or stalls and no gas or electricity for cars, well they just really have it bad. Going to be a huge economic hit even on top of covid shutdowns (or do they have those there given the mask/maskless climate?).

I was wondering last night how those who have maybe moved from Calif to Austin for their jobs at Tesla already are feeling about the move now. Maybe they have good insulation and solar/PWs in their new homes but I’m guessing the vast population there is freezing in the cold. Also wonder how PWs would perform under these conditions. Where you site the PWs would be important.

Situations like this during the winter is why I still prefer to have two sources of energy to the house and PWs hopefully would continue to keep power to a gas furnace blower during a long outage. Will be curious how those in Texas who installed solar and PWs this past year and were affected by the outages do.

I didn’t get the impression @CrazyRabbit had PWs? I know a few Texans getting solar were opting out of battery back up from a cost recovery standpoint for their area. Let’s face it, it sounds like from the weather maps that other areas of the country might be in a similar situation with winter storms knocking out power as well.
I decided to do all the options.,Grid power 1. Solar power 2. Maybe batteries if I get 3. Generator is my 4. I am ready for anything other than my heater is broken so its 60 in my house now and cold. :( Now, I do have 2 compressors so the downstairs is "warm" .
 
Half of the wind generation in Texas is frozen and isn't operating it seems, ~12GW. Historic winter storm freezes Texas wind turbines (statesman.com)

Frozen wind generation is only a small part of the problem. 20+ GW of natural gas generation isn’t available due to frozen plants and a shortage of natural gas.

https://twitter.com/jessejenkins/status/1361348544154664961?s=12

Now it looks like other grids are experiencing similar generation shortfalls. Rolling blackouts expected in Southwest Power Pool’s region.

https://twitter.com/usweatherexpert/status/1361383274061398021?s=12
 
We need nuclear, period.

No one will ever build nuclear
in excess of what can be operated ~100% of the time. So if there's an increase in demand as there is now nuclear can't help. What we need is demand response and more turbines. A gas turbine costs $1/w to build and ~$0.02/w/yr to keep operational. Nuclear costs $15/w to build and ~$0.20/w/yr to keep operational. Which makes more sense for a once in 2 or 3 year event when you need to call up a few more GW?
 
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