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15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]

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No criticism needed, because it’s NOT true. Almost ten times more natural gas impacted than wind. That’s the truth. Gas is used for heating and electrical generation, thus LESS is available for electricity in winter vs summer. Nobody is perfect, but don’t mistake that for blatant biased reporting against renewables in the Texas media. After the February 2011 event, ERCOT put out a press release praising the wind generators for producing MORE than scheduled and blamed the event on thermal generators that went off-line because of freezing conditions, not enough gas pressure in the pipe lines, etc. (my Google fu wasn’t able to find it just yet). The same thing is happening today. That’s the truth. Sorry, if you don’t “believe”.

I said "disproportionately impacted".

NG generation in Texas accounts for 53% of the total energy mix, wind is half of that at 23.3% (www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/219736/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet_2.12.21.pdf). But remember that's just capacity as wind doesn't blow all the time however under normal operating conditions a NG plant can. What's more telling is the energy use mix where wind is only 20% of the total. As of December 2019 there is 24GW of wind capacity in Texas and half of it is offline due to freezing (Historic winter storm freezes Texas wind turbines). That means out of the 30GW of offline capacity about a third or a quarter of it is wind when it should be only one fifth. Thus if Texas was more heavily invested in wind the energy deficit would be even worse thus "disproportionately impacted". None of this to say NG plants are foolproof, clearly they're having big problems too. Let's not kid ourselves that wind is a panacea.

Ok, if you’re willing to pay ten times the current costs, and wait at least 10+ years, then go ahead and wait for a nuclear plant (just like in GA). Sorry, it ain’t happening. The solution right now is insulation, sealing, better windows, and net zero building codes. For me, I’ve taken things into my own hands and added a foot of insulation in the attic and new low-e windows when I first bought my 1960s house. I’m sitting right now, with a foot of snow everywhere outside 20F overnight and perfectly warm enough with the heat off every night. Max low inside gets to 58F, when it gets to zero outside. Just replaced the heat pump with higher efficiency and run it during the warmest part of the day (12-4pm), then the house holds the heat well enough until the next day. I have extremely cheap, stable, underground-serviced power that is 100% hydro, so I don’t feel the need for solar or PowerWalls. If I was still in TX, I would definitely go with solar/PW and build net zero (might require an out-of-state contractor).

Nothing happens overnight. All of the "upgrades" you mention will take years at scale as well and have their own challenges. Like everything else a wholistic, balanced approach provides the best outcomes. Nuclear power has come a long way and distributed nuclear holds great promise. I hope our new administration sees that opportunity to move us to a greener and more stable energy future.
 
Let's not kid ourselves that wind is a panacea.



I guess @ReddyLeaf can correct me if I'm
misinterpreting but I think there's a difference between saying wind is the solution and the current problem in TX is being caused by gas and not wind. I doubt many people think renewables are the solution here... I certainly don't. The solution is gas turbines. Hopefully one day those turbines can be 100% fueled by H2 that was produced by surplus wind and solar.

Wind isn't meant to be relied on the keep the grid up. That's NOT it's purpose => it can't fail in something it wasn't intended for. The fact wind wasn't able to support gas and thermal generators didn't help but it's the failure of gas and thermal generators to provide the capacity they had promised that caused ERCOT to be short on supply.
 
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I guess @ReddyLeaf can correct me if I'm
misinterpreting but I think there's a difference between saying wind is the solution and the current problem in TX is being caused by gas and not wind. I doubt many people think renewables are the solution here... I certainly don't. The solution is gas turbines. Hopefully one day those turbines can be 100% fueled by H2 that was produced by surplus wind and solar.

Wind isn't meant to be relied on the keep the grid up. That's NOT it's purpose => it can't fail in something it wasn't intended for. The fact wind wasn't able to support gas and thermal generators didn't help but it's the failure of gas and thermal generators to provide the capacity they had promised that caused ERCOT to be short on supply.

Wind/solar/hydro for power and hydrogen for storage (+ turbines for power) makes a lot of sense long-term. But on the other hand, the scale needed to achieve this is monstrous, as not only do you need enough renewables to significantly over-produce often and when conditions are favorable, the efficiency of green hydrogen is quite low and the infrastructure investment is quite large. By that time, batteries may have progressed to a point where hydrogen doesn't make sense economically.
 
Wind/solar/hydro for power and hydrogen for storage (+ turbines for power) makes a lot of sense long-term. But on the other hand, the scale needed to achieve this is monstrous, as not only do you need enough renewables to significantly over-produce often and when conditions are favorable, the efficiency of green hydrogen is quite low and the infrastructure investment is quite large. By that time, batteries may have progressed to a point where hydrogen doesn't make sense economically.

Maybe. But we already have a lot of the infrastructure in place required for Hydrogen and gas turbines are crazy cheap compared to other generation especially thermal. I've read studies that you could feed a generator ~20% H2 as is. No upgrades required. We already use ~10B kg/yr of H2. Just need to scale up a bit more.

Regardless. We need more renewable generation so we have surplus that can be diverted to H2 generation. Whether batteries or H2 the point is that there's no reason to divert investment in wind and solar toward uber-expensive and obsolete thermal generators like nuclear.
 
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No criticism needed, because it’s NOT true. Almost ten times more natural gas impacted than wind. That’s the truth. Gas is used for heating and electrical generation, thus LESS is available for electricity in winter vs summer. Nobody is perfect, but don’t mistake that for blatant biased reporting against renewables in the Texas media. After the February 2011 event, ERCOT put out a press release praising the wind generators for producing MORE than scheduled and blamed the event on thermal generators that went off-line because of freezing conditions, not enough gas pressure in the pipe lines, etc. (my Google fu wasn’t able to find it just yet). The same thing is happening today. That’s the truth. Sorry, if you don’t “believe”.

Ok, if you’re willing to pay ten times the current costs, and wait at least 10+ years, then go ahead and wait for a nuclear plant (just like in GA). Sorry, it ain’t happening. The solution right now is insulation, sealing, better windows, and net zero building codes. For me, I’ve taken things into my own hands and added a foot of insulation in the attic and new low-e windows when I first bought my 1960s house. I’m sitting right now, with a foot of snow everywhere outside 20F overnight and perfectly warm enough with the heat off every night. Max low inside gets to 58F, when it gets to zero outside. Just replaced the heat pump with higher efficiency and run it during the warmest part of the day (12-4pm), then the house holds the heat well enough until the next day. I have extremely cheap, stable, underground-serviced power that is 100% hydro, so I don’t feel the need for solar or PowerWalls. If I was still in TX, I would definitely go with solar/PW and build net zero (might require an out-of-state contractor).
I read the same thing about Nat Gas usage for power gen and heating. Sort of a double whammy when it comes to constrained supply.

I wish we had the power rates you do in the NW. Cheap electricity is one big reason all those tech companies locate big data centers in Eastern Washington and Oregon. I still remember visiting people in the Tri-cities area and wondering why they never turned off lights in empty rooms.
 
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Frozen wind generation is only a small part of the problem. 20+ GW of natural gas generation isn’t available due to frozen plants and a shortage of natural gas.

https://twitter.com/jessejenkins/status/1361348544154664961?s=12

Now it looks like other grids are experiencing similar generation shortfalls. Rolling blackouts expected in Southwest Power Pool’s region.

https://twitter.com/usweatherexpert/status/1361383274061398021?s=12
I worked as an operator/tech at gas turbine plant in CA. The once in several years freeze that we’d get where temps hovered in the mid to high 20’s in the early mornings generally required a forced outage on the plant during the freezing hours. There are a lot of supporting systems on a gas turbine plant that can easily be rendered unusable during a hard freeze, even with preparation. Once those auxiliary systems fail then there is no power production for the plant. I can certainly see why a lot of gas generation was forced to be offline during this event in Texas. Wind turbines were certainly not anywhere near being the primary cause for the Texas generation shortfall, that I can assure you.
 
I worked as an operator/tech at gas turbine plant in CA. The once in several years freeze that we’d get where temps hovered in the mid to high 20’s in the early mornings generally required a forced outage on the plant during the freezing hours. There are a lot of supporting systems on a gas turbine plant that can easily be rendered unusable during a hard freeze, even with preparation. Once those auxiliary systems fail then there is no power production for the plant. I can certainly see why a lot of gas generation was forced to be offline during this event in Texas. Wind turbines were certainly not anywhere near being the primary cause for the Texas generation shortfall, that I can assure you.
We have not had one of those cold spells in Calif for a while. But if it were to happen today, my generator is ready to the rescue. Guess this is one thing PGE has gotten many of us to do, and that is be ready for a power outage, no matter the cause, and still be able to supply our own power. I cannot believe how many have put in whole home generators the last year. They are everywhere.
 
I worked as an operator/tech at gas turbine plant in CA. The once in several years freeze that we’d get where temps hovered in the mid to high 20’s in the early mornings generally required a forced outage on the plant during the freezing hours. There are a lot of supporting systems on a gas turbine plant that can easily be rendered unusable during a hard freeze, even with preparation. Once those auxiliary systems fail then there is no power production for the plant. I can certainly see why a lot of gas generation was forced to be offline during this event in Texas. Wind turbines were certainly not anywhere near being the primary cause for the Texas generation shortfall, that I can assure you.
Does that mean that Nat Gas cannot be used as an electrical generation power source in climates where it gets below freezing in the winter? Say in the midwest? Or do they have additional systems they can add to these plants to protect them from the cold temperatures?
 
Does that mean that Nat Gas cannot be used as an electrical generation power source in climates where it gets below freezing in the winter? Say in the midwest? Or do they have additional systems they can add to these plants to protect them from the cold temperatures?
Yea there are plenty of gas plants in the Midwest and the NE that routinely see prolonged freezing weather. One of the solutions with those plants is to have some or all of the auxiliary equipment indoors where they can be under climate control as needed. Another solution they use is to just keep the running the plants online ahead of a cold spell. The problem with those methods and others used is that they cost a lot of money: keeping plants running when the economics are not there or when there may not be fuel available or having to condition auxiliary plant equipment indoors is much costlier than having air cooling for plant auxiliary equipment outdoors. This is when choices are made: do you spend tons of money to avoid these issues in
S. Texas or a place that will rarely see a once in a few decades cold event or do you take the risk of the plant being unavailable for a few days as the much lower cost of doing business? If you are looking to have a return on investment then the choice is obvious: you chance being unavailable during extreme weather for a few days as that is way cheaper and makes sure you’re not a money losing operation in the long run.
 
Yea there are plenty of gas plants in the Midwest and the NE that routinely see prolonged freezing weather. One of the solutions with those plants is to have some or all of the auxiliary equipment indoors where they can be under climate control as needed. Another solution they use is to just keep the running the plants online ahead of a cold spell. The problem with those methods and others used is that they cost a lot of money: keeping plants running when the economics are not there or when there may not be fuel available or having to condition auxiliary plant equipment indoors is much costlier than having air cooling for plant auxiliary equipment outdoors. This is when choices are made: do you spend tons of money to avoid these issues in
S. Texas or a place that will rarely see a once in a few decades cold event or do you take the risk of the plant being unavailable for a few days as the much lower cost of doing business? If you are looking to have a return on investment then the choice is obvious: you chance being unavailable during extreme weather for a few days as that is way cheaper and makes sure you’re not a money losing operation in the long run.
We folks in Calif are taking things into our own hands with getting generators and batteries.
 
This is when choices are made: do you spend tons of money to avoid these issues in
S. Texas or a place that will rarely see a once in a few decades cold event or do you take the risk of the plant being unavailable for a few days as the much lower cost of doing business? If you are looking to have a return on investment then the choice is obvious: you chance being unavailable during extreme weather for a few days as that is way cheaper and makes sure you’re not a money losing operation in the long run.

This is a really keen insight. If TX electricity bills were higher year-round to prepare for these once-a-decade events people would be upset. Utilities are in a no win situation.
 
Yea there are plenty of gas plants in the Midwest and the NE that routinely see prolonged freezing weather. One of the solutions with those plants is to have some or all of the auxiliary equipment indoors where they can be under climate control as needed. Another solution they use is to just keep the running the plants online ahead of a cold spell. The problem with those methods and others used is that they cost a lot of money: keeping plants running when the economics are not there or when there may not be fuel available or having to condition auxiliary plant equipment indoors is much costlier than having air cooling for plant auxiliary equipment outdoors. This is when choices are made: do you spend tons of money to avoid these issues in
S. Texas or a place that will rarely see a once in a few decades cold event or do you take the risk of the plant being unavailable for a few days as the much lower cost of doing business? If you are looking to have a return on investment then the choice is obvious: you chance being unavailable during extreme weather for a few days as that is way cheaper and makes sure you’re not a money losing operation in the long run.

Not sure how cheaper is better for the State of Texas, residents and businesses when the Whole state is freezing and shut down though for days or a week or so and whether this is a weather pattern they can expect to see more frequently. Too bad they elected to operate on their own and couldn’t buy excess supply from other areas.
 
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Everyone installing generator the cure to the problem which shouldn’t exist. High tension lines arcing, plants off line, to frozen wind.

I can not confirm it, but the natural gas supply has not been able to keep up either casing plant to shut down.

l like hydrogen, it make sense. I also like nuK plants.

I’m on tri-county electric, we have long term contracts with Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, Inc., which we fund new power plants with. Lately the buy wind energy and shut down.
 
Everyone installing generator the cure to the problem which shouldn’t exist. High tension lines arcing, plants off line, to frozen wind.

I can not confirm it, but the natural gas supply has not been able to keep up either casing plant to shut down.

l like hydrogen, it make sense. I also like nuK plants.

I’m on tri-county electric, we have long term contracts with Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, Inc., which we fund new power plants with. Lately the buy wind energy and shut down.
Yep, I agree, problems should no exists. But if and when they do, at least my lights are on and I am warm. Life is too short to point the finger and be cold and dark.
 
From weather.com, lots of good information.
At least 1 in 10 power plants in Texas were offline Tuesday, according to WFAA. There are 680 plants statewide. "We have seen nothing like this honestly in Texas, that has covered the state like the storm has. It increased demand to an extreme, extraordinary height, and then the storm also made it difficult for the supply to be provided," Bill Magness, CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the agency that manages the state's power flow, told WFAA-TV in an interview Tuesday. -The problem started Sunday night, when Winter Storm Uri moved in and temperatures plummeted to the single digits. "Beginning around 11:00 p.m., multiple generating units began tripping off-line in rapid progression due to the severe cold weather," Dan Woodfin, senior director of system operations at ERCOT, told WFAA. Key equipment froze, natural gas supplies were limited and, after daylight, solar farms were blocked out by cloud cover and snow, Magness said. (MORE: Here's When the South Will Finally Thaw After Record-Smashing Cold, Snow and Ice) -The record breaking weather led to record breaking demand for power, which strained the grid even more. By Monday morning, two million homes and businesses were without power across Texas. That number continued to go up throughout the day as temperatures went down. By the end of the day, there were more than 4.1 million outages being reported. More than 3 million remained without power by early Tuesday evening. And since each outage only represents a single utility customer, that number represents millions more people who were directly affected. -Rolling blackouts didn't go as planned. ERCOT ordered local power companies to institute periodic shutoffs to keep the grid from shutting down altogether. But because there was already so little power to go around - and neighborhoods with hospitals, fire stations and water treatment plants were prioritized for energy - it was hard to evenly rotate the blackouts, according to the Wall Street Journal. That meant some homes were without power for extended periods of time, while others never lost it all. -As of 2020, Texas got most of its power from natural gas-fueled plants, followed by wind turbines, coal and nuclear, the Journal reported. All were affected by the cold weather, Woodfin told Bloomberg. While it was widely reported that crippled wind turbines were largely to blame for the blackouts, Woodfin said that was the least significant factor. -Some say the bigger problem lies in Texas' power system as a whole. Texas is the only state that runs its own power grid without any federal oversight. It also doesn't require power equipment to be winterized against extended periods of below-freezing temperatures, like other states do, according to WFAA. David Tuttle, a research associate with the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, said the issue comes up every decade or so, but cost is always a question. "All of us would love to say, we want super reliable [electricity]," Tuttle told WFAA. "It would be millions to really bulletproof the system for that. How much do we want to pay to go protect ourselves with insurance policies for rare events?"
 
We were out for about 50 hours. Indoor temp was 42F. Not rotating, just out. Now back on for about 3 hours so far.
The question that needs to be asked it do Texas rate payers want to pay for power to be available down to 6 degrees in DFW and 17 or so along the coast? We've lived here since 1980 and it has never been this cold for this long. No doubt that plants can be built to endure such weather as our friends in Canada have power throughout the winter. As has been said, those plants are built indoors which is more expensive. Canada even has wind farms. If wind farms can't work in Canada they probably wouldn't have installed them.
There is an ERCOT app you can download that shows demand and capacity. You can see that they are adding back capacity now that it is 'warming' up.
Screenshot_20210217-124254.jpg
 
We were out for about 50 hours. Indoor temp was 42F. Not rotating, just out. Now back on for about 3 hours so far.
The question that needs to be asked it do Texas rate payers want to pay for power to be available down to 6 degrees in DFW and 17 or so along the coast? We've lived here since 1980 and it has never been this cold for this long. No doubt that plants can be built to endure such weather as our friends in Canada have power throughout the winter. As has been said, those plants are built indoors which is more expensive. Canada even has wind farms. If wind farms can't work in Canada they probably wouldn't have installed them.
There is an ERCOT app you can download that shows demand and capacity. You can see that they are adding back capacity now that it is 'warming' up.View attachment 637579
Not looking good for later in the day based on that graph?
 
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One family member lives in the Austin area near Round Rock. As of this AM, they has not had power for more than 30 minutes at a stretch since the wee hours of Monday. They have a fireplace which is gas-fired and works. That is their only source of heat in a 3500+ sq foot home. Water has also been out since Monday. They are using bottled water they keep near the fireplace. The stovetop is gas and works, but not at high settings.

How the heck does this happen?
 
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