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bdy0627
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You can glimpse the interior pretty well there. Looks just like all the M3 sightings so far. There doesn't appear to be any interior surprise.
I think you've led us to our July 29th financial "news" headlines:
"Elon Musk and Tesla's credibility plummet even deeper at make or break Model 3 event"
ValueAnalyst
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1) I follow your logic. Tough to predict as you said.
2) I don't know how avg pack size would be 70 kWh, given that base size for Model 3 will be "less than 60 kWh" per Jeff Evans in April 2016: Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling Model 3/Y will comprise vast majority of units in 2020.
3) yes, but they said long-term. Maybe they meant 2020, and the math I presented earlier does point to that, but I was originally expecting that 50:50 mix closer to 2025. I'm starting to realize that I'm underestimating Tesla energy's growth.
4) agreed, which begs the question, why tie up all that battery production capacity (1.5 MWh per Semi?) IF asp is only ~$300-350k and gross margin 25%?! Instead of producing more model 3/Y?! If each Semi is priced 10x of model 3 with similar margin, but uses 20x battery production capacity?!?! I'm missing something. What am I missing?! I guess they'll set semi asp much higher? Or maybe charge high margin for electricity for semi's?
As to 2), roughly 10% will be S/X, I think out of the gate it will be a 60 and a 75 for the M3 (yes, I know at one point Elon said under 60... but I don't see the base M3 having a range under the Bolt's for multiple reasons and that makes a 60 likely), by 2020, M3 could be higher than 60 and 75. While of course it's debatable, I'm in the camp that thinks the bigger battery will have the majority of sales. We'll see... but I'm about 99% confident 70 was said at least once as average (it stuck out to me as it's the number I'd already been using for rough calculations).
While I really like your suggestion, I think it's a done deal that these are Founders Series Model 3s. Ira E is not only a thoughtful Tesla customer who let Elon have the first vehicle, he's on the board of Tesla. Again, I like your way of handling this better.
Ohh thats easy.
Globally, Tesla's share of 350km EVs will/is less than 50% during 2018.
much less.
Yes that includes China, but to ignore China is stupid when it comes to automotive issues
Currently Chinese norm EV is 300km, but 350km is needed to max out the upcoming ZEV scheme.
350km is about 5 credits, market is about 30,000,000
8% of 30,000,000 / 5 = 480,000 x 350km vehicles for 2018 China, yes there will be PHEVs and others reducing this somewhat, but it ramps up to 10% and then 12% annually
or for another perspective, look at what "400km" vehicles sells like compared to Tesla in France
globally 70% of the market is smaller than Tesla 3 size, if Tesla Y/4 is smaller than the 3, then it could be an entrant. Tesla was and still is a large vehicle car company.
But is that 70% of the market relevant to Tesla? I would say it is not.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Huge battery = lots of charging. It won't be free. The infrastructure will be expensive but Tesla could probably turn a very good profit from supplying the juice. I could picture a few hundred Kauai sized micro grids attached to Supercharger truck stops with 700KWh charging. Could sell the juice for 12c per KWh but generate it at 4c.
Could see Tesla becoming one of the biggest utilities in the world just from solar on superchargers and factories. With all the advantages of solar adjacent to the chargers with little lost to transmission, it should be very profitable. Certainly could make money from model 3 charging as well, but nothing like the semi.
Ohh thats easy.
Globally, Tesla's share of 350km EVs will/is less than 50% during 2018.
much less.
Yes that includes China, but to ignore China is stupid when it comes to automotive issues
Currently Chinese norm EV is 300km, but 350km is needed to max out the upcoming ZEV scheme.
350km is about 5 credits, market is about 30,000,000
8% of 30,000,000 / 5 = 480,000 x 350km vehicles for 2018 China, yes there will be PHEVs and others reducing this somewhat, but it ramps up to 10% and then 12% annually
or for another perspective, look at what "400km" vehicles sells like compared to Tesla in France
globally 70% of the market is smaller than Tesla 3 size, if Tesla Y/4 is smaller than the 3, then it could be an entrant. Tesla was and still is a large vehicle car company.
But is that 70% of the market relevant to Tesla? I would say it is not.
Lols renin, if anyone on this forum doesn't need a spokesperson stepping in, it's myusername. I would quite like it if myusername would respond, what's more, I would quite like if myusername's response is an answer to my question, ie, names the year he/she thinks Tesla will fall below 50% ex-China market share in the 200+ mile (EPA standards) pure EV segment.
Fwiw, I'm afraid I can't focus at all on your comment until I hear back from myusername- none of us would want to see myself or the board get distracted from this question and m-u-n's answer, would we? I'll be happy to respond to your comment after myusername answers my question.
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Renault Zoe's new 41 kWh variant has a range on the EPA scale around 185 miles. It is not a 200+ mile long range BEV. And lots of those sales in on that chart have to do with short range variants, with 22 kWh batteries.
The issue with China is that the vast majority of BEVs sold there have LiFePO4 battery chemistry. That's a dead end. And lots of those vehicles are not possible to be homologated outside of China. Matter of fact, the Chinese government is trying to figure out how much fraud was in the incentive program. We might find out that there were far less vehicles actually made and sold than reported.
Here's a report on Chinese EVs:
EV Sales: China May 2017
#1, the BAIC EC180 has a 20 kWh battery.
#2, the Zhidou D2 EV is basically a quadricycle with 12 kWh battery.
and so forth.
All of BYD's production is LiFePO4. That's a non-starter in developed economies outside of fleet sales.
My question for @myusername was for luxury marquees and long range BEVs. If you look at this chart:
EV Sales: World Top 10 May 2017
Tesla is #1 2017 YTD through May, worldwide in terms of overall volumes even counting PHEVs and those short range EVs. But amongst long range BEVs from luxury marquees, Tesla is also #1 and has 100% marketshare. Amongst long range BEVs which are mass produced and capable of worldwide homogation, Tesla's marketshare in 2017, YTD is about 85%. I expect that to increase in 2018 and 2019, even as volumes climb dramatically.
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Ok, had my wife look the article over. First point she made is the article is a mish mash of numbers that don't add up. The title emphasizes the 500 million HK Dollars that the purchaser of the 510 vehicles was able to save on initial registration fees. Whereas the Total savings is around 3.1 billion HK dollars (Why just talk about the 500 million and not the total??). "Rebate Frenzy!!!"
The 510 vehicles that were bought to take advantage of the Tax rebate was bought by a single business entity. The government does not disclose that registration information. However it did disclose that Tesla has directly registered separate (un-specified number) vehicles for business use as loaners, inventory vehicles and management vehicles (assume for upper management use). Thus it seems that Tesla has directly registered vehicles with the government and the 510 vehicles are registered by an Unknown business entity (not necessarily Tesla). Given the article's emphasis that Tesla has currently registered vehicles under Tesla's name, the implication is that the unknown business entity may not be Tesla. (We don't know, and the article and government doesn't clarify).
The 510 vehicles will then be able to be sold as used vehicles after April 1, and the future buyers after April 1 will not have to pay the New vehicle registration fee/tax (which is the big burden).
Approx 3171 Teslas were sold during the rebate period, NOT including the 510 purchased by the single business entity.
49 registrants (presumably business) registered 1 or more vehicles. 4 registered 3-4 vehicles. 1 registered 510 vehicles. Others were personal use. Approximately 56% are personal use. There were some additional numbers regarding the personal use figures which just did not add up, and don't really make sense.
The Legislature specifically pointed out that this is all legal and correct. Pointing out this is a valid "Loophole" of the law as it was written. They suggested that in the future the law could be better written to prevent a business entity from doing this, but as it stands, it is totally valid and legal. Apparently the government has no complaints about this.
Finally the article comments that the EV commission is unhappy with the sudden loss of the rebate with no additional EV incentives. They suggested that maybe in the future, the government should consider incentivizing ICE trade ins for EVs to mitigate possible issues of congestion, but still promote a green HK.
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I hope it's just my broken sarcasm detector and you didn't post this all serious...or for another perspective, look at what "400km" vehicles sells like compared to Tesla in France
globally 70% of the market is smaller than Tesla 3 size, if Tesla Y/4 is smaller than the 3, then it could be an entrant. Tesla was and still is a large vehicle car company.
But is that 70% of the market relevant to Tesla? I would say it is not.
The Renault Zoe might be a 400km EV as per the European cycle (probably less then 300 if it was measured by the EPA), but it's a small city car in the supermini category vs. the large sedan that is the Model S. It is also an economy car (look at the interior materials in videos) vs. the luxury sedan. Most importantly, it starts at €23.700 with battery, €17.700 with the battery rental, vs the €75.700 starting price of the S (all French prices to keep this fair).
In other words: Breaking news! BMW is doomed! The Renault Clio outsells the BMW 7 series 20:1!
I mean both are petrol cars, so it's a fair comparison, right?
Ps: I am driving a Renault Megane, so this is not a diss at Renault, they make fine cars.
Wrong. The car is fully paid for. Elon has been ultra clear about this. Cars do not leave the hands of Tesla unless someone pays for it. It's unclear if Ira will pay for VIN1 or Elon himself. But one of them will buy the car.
Let's not fool ourselves. The availability of 30 cars/month is not what the market expects. It's a good first sign but there needs to be a follow up. Remember the 5 Model X delivered in September 15 followed by nearly half a year of nothing significant. Should it turn out that the following 6 months Tesla releases on average at most a few hunderd Model 3 per month that would be a major disappointment. Therefore it is still too soon to say that those who predicted no deliveries in 2017 were wrong. Because a few hunderd, from a business and investor perspective, that's really nothing.
Indeed. But would they be able to claim that they are 2 weeks ahead of schedule in that case?
Sure, why not. We don't know what the schedule they refer to is in the first place. Tesla has a long history of these kind of claims.
It's hard to confuse 20,000 cars/month in December to just a few hundred.
Clearly demand is bursting at the seams if there is 400k plus to clear out.
Hope Tesla does not disappoint!
Agreed. I think we will see a 1 handle on the stock if there is a 6 month delay in the production ramp. That said, i would be buying like crazy at that price. I think we have seen that while tesla can be late compared to their forecasts, they get there eventually.
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