2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[geneclean55]

The Model 3 production SN1 picture is expected and well priced into the today's pricing. I think a decent ramp rate is also priced in with the Elon-communicated schedule representing the floor. Going forward the big levers are more significant TE revenue, Model 3 ramp rate and any surprises at the Model 3 reveal, along with higher/lower surprises to normal Q2 earnings. With the reveal this month and presumably 2Q earnings call a few weeks later with potential color on Model 3 ramp it should be interesting to say the least

Fully agree on likely extension on last week's bear attack tomorrow. Last week was very eye opening to me on how coordinated this can be...

Todays pricing that has yet to occur??

 

[MP3Mike]

But if EPA has confirmed Model 3's numbers, aren't they public? Or can they be kept secret if manufacturer wants?

Well they aren't available yet, but you can tell that the Model 3 is classified as a mid-sized car:

 

[LoL Rick]

Since you asked... I ended that after the third date.

Way too much drinking was going on on the other side. How can someone get drunk on all of the first three dates?

And I thought I was a light weight...

Your date gets a sad face.

 

[geneclean55]

SN1 video footage

Edit: HD version now

 

[techmaven]

you referenced an article that says this:

MS: "A $35,000 Model 3 in 2017? Nope, it just won’t happen. It will cost much more, and you won’t be able to buy one until the middle of 2018."

so has Tesla delivered an M3 yet?... no... they're about to deliver one... and then 30... and then 100... you speak as if Montana Skeptic has already been disproven... has he?... like I said... the practical worst case scenario (not including catastrophe)... is ramp starts in 2018... and there's still plenty of questions about what the profit point will be... if they don't make a profit for anything under ~$42k... then the M3 will be a complete failure of concept... it will NOT be an "affordable BEV for the masses" and Tesla will be downgraded to the low $100s...

Nope. If you actually read the article, he says,

I am 99.98% confident the cheapest Model 3 will cost significantly more than $35,000. And I'm equally confident no production versions of the Model 3 will be available in 2017.

He restates it as:

• Any version of the Model 3 that anyone wants to buy will cost more than $45,000; and

• Production versions of the Model 3 will not be here until Q2 of 2018, at the very earliest

So he's already wrong on the availability... there will clearly be production Model 3's in July of 2017.

Now, the real question is still...

And so... what volumes of BEVs do you think all of the luxury auto marquees will produce in 2018? 2019? 2020? Which models will ship and at what price points and what volume? What is the marketshare of all of the rest of the auto industry in long range BEVs in 2020 or 2021? I'm curious what marketshare you think Tesla will have versus everyone else, restricting ourselves to vehicles designed and available for purchase in EU and U.S. (ie. Chinese production of scooters and vehicles that cannot pass worldwide homologation excluded).

 

[brian45011]

The only vehicles that require EPA numbers are heavy duty vehicles.

:

"Anyone wishing to sell an engine or vehicle within the United States must demonstrate compliance with the CAA and all applicable EPA regulations. This approval process differs from the self-certification used by NHTSA and is closer to the EU type approval system for safety and emissions regulations. Once EPA sets emission standards for a particular engine and/or vehicle category, manufacturers must produce engines that meet those standards by a specified date.75 Conformity is determined under test procedures specified by EPA.76 The most common testing procedure used by EPA is the Federal Test Procedure, as mandated by the Energy Tax Act of 1978.77 Tests are based on the Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule 78 to reflect typical driving patterns (e.g., city, highway, aggressive, and use of air conditioning). Currently, EPA uses a three-tiered compliance strategy for light-duty vehicles: (1) pre-production evaluation to certify vehicles prior to sale; (2) a production evaluation on the assembly line for early evaluation of production vehicles, and (3) a final clearance applied to verify that properly maintained vehicles continue to meet the standards after several years of use."

More than anyone needs to know at: https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=751039

 

[JRP3]

SN1 video footage


Edit: HD version now

Some good closeup shots, trim alignment actually looks pretty good, so likely my fears were overblown.

 

[AlMc]

:

"Anyone wishing to sell an engine or vehicle within the United States must demonstrate compliance with the CAA and all applicable EPA regulations. This approval process differs from the self-certification used by NHTSA and is closer to the EU type approval system for safety and emissions regulations. Once EPA sets emission standards for a particular engine and/or vehicle category, manufacturers must produce engines that meet those standards by a specified date.75 Conformity is determined under test procedures specified by EPA.76 The most common testing procedure used by EPA is the Federal Test Procedure, as mandated by the Energy Tax Act of 1978.77 Tests are based on the Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule 78 to reflect typical driving patterns (e.g., city, highway, aggressive, and use of air conditioning). Currently, EPA uses a three-tiered compliance strategy for light-duty vehicles: (1) pre-production evaluation to certify vehicles prior to sale; (2) a production evaluation on the assembly line for early evaluation of production vehicles, and (3) a final clearance applied to verify that properly maintained vehicles continue to meet the standards after several years of use."

More than anyone needs to know at: https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=751039

I started to read through the link you provided. Who needs Ambien when you can read a government report.

 

[techmaven]

Some good closeup shots, trim alignment actually looks pretty good, so likely my fears were overblown.

BTW, I've seen that trim piece adjusted. It's very easy. And easy enough for someone to grip and screw up the alignment or re-align it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

"We have been very lucky to have brought a few revolutionary user interfaces to the market in our time.
First was the mouse.
The second was the click wheel.
And now, we’re gonna bring multi-touch to the market.

And each of these revolutionary user interfaces has made possible a revolutionary product – the Mac, the iPod and now the iPhone."

Will Tesla reinvent the steering wheel?

What did Elon mean by "spaceship-like steering controls?"

 

[AlMc]

Some good closeup shots, trim alignment actually looks pretty good, so likely my fears were overblown.

So, you won't be giving up your place in line! Excellent

 

[AlMc]

"We have been very lucky to have brought a few revolutionary user interfaces to the market in our time.
First was the mouse.
The second was the click wheel.
And now, we’re gonna bring multi-touch to the market.

And each of these revolutionary user interfaces has made possible a revolutionary product – the Mac, the iPod and now the iPhone."

Will Tesla reinvent the steering wheel?

What did Elon mean by "spaceship-like steering controls?"

 

[Krugerrand]

So, you won't be giving up your place in line! Excellent

Don't be talking him out of giving up his placing. I want to move up.

Hey JRP3 - I concur, that trim looks like it was put on by a blind man.

 

[JRP3]

So, you won't be giving up your place in line! Excellent

Haven't seen the other side yet

These gaps concern me

 

[Jeeps17]

SN1 video footage

Edit: HD version now

From what I can see in this video the interior seems little changed from pre-production vehicles (no weird steering wheel or visible HUD).

Will have to wait to the 28th reveal for details, but the car looks great !

 

[SteveG3]

Nope. If you actually read the article, he says,



He restates it as:



So he's already wrong on the availability... there will clearly be production Model 3's in July of 2017.

Now, the real question is still...

And so... what volumes of BEVs do you think all of the luxury auto marquees will produce in 2018? 2019? 2020? Which models will ship and at what price points and what volume? What is the marketshare of all of the rest of the auto industry in long range BEVs in 2020 or 2021? I'm curious what marketshare you think Tesla will have versus everyone else, restricting ourselves to vehicles designed and available for purchase in EU and U.S. (ie. Chinese production of scooters and vehicles that cannot pass worldwide homologation excluded).

myusername, I'd really like to see your answers to techmaven's questions.

if you are going to answer, please give tech's questions priority, as he asked first... but as long as you are responding to this, perhaps you could answer my question: What year do you think the rest of the automobile industry combined will surpass Tesla in long range (over 200 miles) EV total vehicles sold in the year in all markets excluding China (i.e., what year do you think Tesla's market share will drop below 50%).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

At 150 GWh annual production capacity in 2020, Gigafactory 1 can produce enough battery packs for 2.5 million cars at 60 kWh avg pack size.

And Elon mentioned the 150 GWh target in May 2016, nearly six months before the Grohmann acquisition. Having spent nearly a decade in and around the M&A industry, I know all too well that there are a million ways a deal can fall through until all parties sign the dotted line. So, it is my educated opinion that Elon's guidance did not incorporate any significant Alien Dreadnought improvements that may come about as a result of the Grohmann acquisition. I'm really excited about the Gigafactory announcements later this year.

So why is Tesla only guiding for "1 million cars in 2020, maybe more?"

Is it maybe because Tesla Energy is expected to pick up quicker than expected?

Currently, I estimate Tesla Automotive and Tesla Energy will comprise 66% and 33% of 2020 revenues, respectively, but signs are piling up that I may be underestimating Tesla Energy's growth.

 

[AlMc]

Suggestion for the IR/PR department at Tesla: I think it would be a great move to have 20+ (actually I would go for all of them) of the model 3s to be delivered be to the factory workers, selected by lottery, that have reserved a model 3.

This is suppose to be a car for 'everyman' (women). I would have EM/The board pour a glass of champaign FOR these workers and toast them. IMO, this is not a party for the 'one percenters' of the world but a celebration for all.

The boost for morale, not to mention the positive press, would be great.

EDIT: I emailed IR with this suggestion

 

[SteveG3]

At 150 GWh annual production capacity in 2020, Gigafactory 1 can produce enough battery packs for 2.5 million cars at 60 kWh avg pack size.

And Elon mentioned the 150 GWh target in May 2016, nearly six months before the Grohmann acquisition. Having spent nearly a decade in and around the M&A industry, I know all too well that there are a million ways a deal can fall through until all parties sign the dotted line. So, it is my educated opinion that Elon's guidance did not incorporate any significant Alien Dreadnought improvements that may come about as a result of the Grohmann acquisition. I'm really excited about the Gigafactory announcements later this year.

So then why is Tesla only guiding for "1 million cars in 2020, maybe more?" Is it maybe because Tesla Energy is expected to pick up quicker than most expect?

Currently, I estimate Tesla Automotive and Tesla Energy will comprise 66% and 33% of 2020 revenues, respectively, but signs are piling up that I may be underestimating Tesla Energy's growth.

Firstly, Yes, if we do see 150 GWh produced in 2020 at GF1, most likely considerably more than 33% will be for Tesla Energy. In various ways, Tesla has consistently indicated that GF1 could produce 150 GWh at that point in time while never saying it will. I think it's very likely that a major contributing factor (quite possibly the driving factor) to that ambiguity is a desire to offer guidance consistent the difficulty in knowing precisely when TE demand will reach that scale. To be clear, I think there is considerably more confidence at Tesla that it will, rather than when it will.

A few other points of smaller consequence than the first,

2) average pack size ~70 rather than 60 (pretty sure Elon said that in some outloud back of the envelope talk)

3) hasn't Tesla said in the past a roughly 50/50 mix of batteries for auto and energy storage

4) factor in Tesla Semi very heavy use of batteries

 

[techmaven]

So... looking into the Hong Kong FRT expiration, especially since a number of bear articles have come out pointing out the cratering of EV demand after such government incentives expire. Apparently Tesla registered an extra 510 vehicles to take advantage of the FRT before expiration in Q1:

http://std.stheadline.com/daily/news-content.php?id=1601310&target=2

I'm using Google Translate, and it appears that Tesla "stressed that the vehicle is registered as a company is operating on their own need."

Presumably, they use these as service loaners or demo cars for a little bit, then sell them as used cars, probably can command a price higher or at least equal to the old "new" price. They won't show up as "new car" deliveries in Q2.

It seems the new policy is to exempt the first HK$97,500, or about $12,500. Which is still something and likely makes the Model 3 still viable when the RHD versions come out. And clearly demand was pulled forward.

Anyone here with decent Chinese language skills, can you please provide a better summary? Or anyone from Hong Kong give us some more color on the situation post FRT in Hong Kong?