2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[MitchJi]

Bloomberg: Tesla Set To Win

Bad news may be on the horizon for Big Oil as electric cars gained traction this past week. Bloomberg reports that “France plans to end the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2040” and “Volvo Car Group became the first major manufacturer to say it will start phasing out vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels.” Who’s poised to fill this gas-mobile void? “More than a dozen automakers are jostling to lead the U.S. electric-car race, but Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees a clear winner separating from the pack: Tesla Inc.”

It's reported that: “The automaker led by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk will emerge as ‘the stand-out’ in total cumulative deliveries through 2021, reaching nearly 709,000 vehicles, according to BNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook... The report reinforces the optimism among some analysts that Tesla will be able to distance itself from established automakers and dominate many of the world’s biggest markets for battery-powered vehicles.”

 

[GoTslaGo]

You have to be a fool of the worst kind to bet against Elon Musk. Not because he's Elon Musk, but rather because betting against him is a blatant bet against the planet and man. Who does that? What kind of a person must you be to want to see Elon Musk's companies fail? You certainly don't have to believe he can accomplish his goals, you can even be of the opinion they'll most likely fail, but to bet they'll fail, want them to fail, and try to convince others that failure is imminent via manipulation, made up propaganda, etc... Blech.

Koch?

 

[MitchJi]

I love this short video!

 

[Krugerrand]

Best quote ever accompanied by an eye roll and heavy sigh: "Oh, boy!"

 

[tander]

Elon Musk Says Autopilot Needs 6 Billion Miles Before Regulations | Inverse

Now at 5 billion miles.
Tesla’s global fleet reaches over 5 billion electric miles driven ahead of Model 3 launch

Hopefully, 6 billion miles by the end of the year. Full autopilot driving may be done by the end of the year IMO. In fact, Elon said a demonstration will be done using a Model S from NY to CA by the end of this year. Elon Musk says a Model S will drive itself from New York to LA this year

TSLA touching 450 IMO by then if macros and guidance are in line. (Not an advice)

Awesome thanks, exactly what I was trying to remember. Hope they get there soon!

 

[Ameliorate]

NGA meeting starting in approx 5 min.

 

[RobStark]

Porsche installs 350kW charge station which it's cars can't use Porsche installs first ultra-fast 350 kW EV charging station
I'm thinking of installing an empty box that says "400kW" in my driveway.

Someday you will be able to charge a Mission E at 350 kW.

 

[brian45011]

Southern Company is wasting their time on building nuclear in Georgia (which is behind schedule and billions over budget) and 'clean coal' in Mississippi (which is now being converted to natural gas) They should be embracing solar & batteries.

"Southern Company subsidiary PowerSecure announced today a strategic alliance with Advanced Microgrid Solutions (“AMS”) to jointly develop and deploy behind-the-meter distributed energy resources across the United States."

PowerSecure announces strategic alliance with Advanced Microgrid Solutions

"Last week [in June 2015], Advanced Microgrid Solutions announced plans to install up to 500 megawatt-hours of Tesla’s Powerpack battery systems over the coming years. That would make it the biggest single customer yet for the electric automaker’s new push into the energy storage field."

What Advanced Microgrid Solutions Plans to Do With 5,000 Tesla Powerpack Batteries

 

[MitchJi]

NGA meeting starting in approx 5 min.

Started.

 

[RobStark]

I continue to be amazed at the stubbornness of people shorting TSLA. TSLA has been heavily shorted for years -- an investment strategy that since the IPO has a cumulative return of -2000%

But every time a short post about their position they claim they timed the market perfectly or almost perfectly.

Shorted at a peak and covered at a trough.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

When's the keynote?

 

[Bgarret]

Excellent summary of the politics and economics (and manipulation and price gauging) related to the grid and delivery of electricity in Australia.

Can Elon Musk’s battery storage plant smash Australia’s gas cartel?

Australia is literally the canary in the coal mine when it comes to battery storage and renewables and the pitched battle Tesla, LG Chem, Sonnen and others will face with the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. As battery and Solar costs drop, actions, gauging and revolution are coming to a local utility near you.

 

[Mo City]

When's the keynote?

Coming up right now.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I noticed this as well, but OPEC's projections are still way below how the future, I estimate, will pan out.

I believe the exponential ramp up will continue further into the future than this graph presents.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That introduction makes it crystal clear that legislation will increasingly move from counter to Tesla's goals to supportive of them.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

"2 or 3 more [Gigafactories] in the US in the next several years"

"more than half of all new car sales will be all-electric in 10 years" [so ~40m by 2027, or 2x of my ~20m estimate by 2025]

"almost all cars produced will be autonomous in 10 years" [this is huge and a lot quicker than some here claim]

"in 20 years, overwhelming majority of existing fleet will be all-electric and fully autonomous"

"China is most advanced in electric cars and solar"

"Somebody orders a M3 today, they'll get it late 2018" [so reservations are ~500k, or Tesla plans to ramp up production quicker than estimated]

"Tesla is pretty good at software compared to other car companies. It'll be more difficult for others to ensure security [of autonomous car fleet]."

[paraphrasing: SP is high considering where we are today and incorporates some optimism about where Tesla will be in the future.]

 

[Ameliorate]

lol!
Took a bit for Elon to warm up. Much better now.

Some people have horses, and it's cool. When the majority of people have autonomous vehicles some people will still have non autonomous and like horses its cool but why would you use them for transportation.

 

[RobStark]

Poor journalism? (relying on a company's statement rather than independent investigation.)

DOE Global Energy Storage Database

So there is another large CAES in Germany in operation since 2013.

A few very small CAES in operation.

And others announced?

 

[RobStark]

I noticed this as well, but OPEC's projections are still way below how the future, I estimate, will pan out.

I believe the exponential ramp up will continue further into the future than this graph presents.

I look at OPEC's BEV projections as worst case scenario.

And Elon's as best case scenario.

And somewhere in between being the likely scenario.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I look at OPEC's BEV projections as worst case scenario.

And Elon's as best case scenario.

And somewhere in between being the likely scenario.

If that's the approach you take, you would likely have been wrong if you took Elon's "500,000 cars by 2020" estimate as best case scenario.

Elon used to prove optimistic with his predictions, but there are also cases more recently where he has revised his predictions/plans up.