2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Navin]

I think people appreciate Elon's honesty. That's baked into tesla so doing what he always does should only strengthen vs weaken tesla. If you do articles spinning what was said today - they are easy to point out as being a paid shill.

Btw - Elon got a bipartisan standing ovation by the governors and was the main event (closing q&a). Having govt respect for future energy related products isn't properly reflected in tesla energy but it should be. If NASA can hire Elon to send some people to space - surely some town can get some solar panels from him.

 

[brian45011]

So there is another large CAES in Germany in operation since 2013.

A few very small CAES in operation.

And others announced?

DOE's data base shows 10 operational, 1 contracted, 7 announced, and 1 decommissioned.

 

[Mo City]

Epic doesn't begin to describe that. After a slow start, Elon delivered the goods. I didn't know exactly what to expect but the event far exceeded what I had in mind.

Today will be more than enough to feed both Elon's fans and detractors until the 28th.

 

[MitchJi]

Started.

He actually said that TSLA is overpriced .

 

[geneclean55]

I think people appreciate Elon's honesty. That's baked into tesla so doing what he always does should only strengthen vs weaken tesla. If you do articles spinning what was said today - they are easy to point out as being a paid shill.

Btw - Elon got a bipartisan standing ovation by the governors and was the main event (closing q&a). Having govt respect for future energy related products isn't properly reflected in tesla energy but it should be. If NASA can hire Elon to send some people to space - surely some town can get some solar panels from him.

Yep, even after the last question on Trump.

 

[Mo City]

I'm assuming you agree with the share price prediction, given the scenario I laid out, but that you believe the scenario is unlikely.

Which part would you say is most unlikely piece to happen?

IMO, least likely is Tesla hitting 10,000 vehicles/week in Q3 2018, which will delay the 20-25% margin.

I'm an investor (long) and hope to wrong.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

IMO, least likely is Tesla hitting 10,000 vehicles/week in Q3 2018, which will delay the 20-25% margin.

I'm an investor (long) and hope to wrong.

If I'm not mistaken, Elon guided for Model 3 similar to Model S/X at 5,000 per week (so end-2017).

I'm modeling 25% by 3Q18.

 

[RobStark]

DOE's data base shows 10 operational, 1 contracted, 7 announced, and 1 decommissioned.

But most of the operational ones are tiny.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

He actually said that TSLA is overpriced .

He qualified it with current financial metrics. This is what he has always said and it is true, but company valuations are and should be based of expectations of the future.

He really needs to work with Investor Relations folks to fine tune his messaging on this. It's very frustrating to shareholders.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think people appreciate Elon's honesty. That's baked into tesla so doing what he always does should only strengthen vs weaken tesla. If you do articles spinning what was said today - they are easy to point out as being a paid shill.

Btw - Elon got a bipartisan standing ovation by the governors and was the main event (closing q&a). Having govt respect for future energy related products isn't properly reflected in tesla energy but it should be. If NASA can hire Elon to send some people to space - surely some town can get some solar panels from him.

I noted the bipartisan standing ovation as well.

 

[RobStark]

If that's the approach you take, you would likely have been wrong if you took Elon's "500,000 cars by 2020" estimate as best case scenario.

Elon used to prove optimistic with his predictions, but there are also cases more recently where he has revised his predictions/plans up.

I revise my thesis as Elon and OPEC revise theirs.

No one could foretell the Chinese government bringing down the hammer on legacy automakers in 2018.

Or the Libertarian Macron winning in France then threatening to bringing down the hammer on French ICEv market.

Going forward I will forecast more governments doing such. As will Elon and OPEC I think.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Rc

He qualified it with current financial metrics. This is what he has always said and it is true, but company valuations are and should be based of expectations of the future.

He really needs to work with Investor Relations folks to fine tune his messaging on this. It's very frustrating to shareholders.

His reply was much too easy to take out of context.

 

[Ameliorate]

He actually said that TSLA is overpriced .

Does not compute.
2014 vs now
280 SP vs 327, 17% higher (plus more shares outstanding). Comparatively, Nasdaq and QQQ 50% higher same time frame.
"stock is a little high" vs "higher than we have any right to deserve"
Revenue 3.2B vs revenue 7b 2016, 11-12B? 2017
700B market cap in 2025

Unless one wanted to explain how the market works and forward values companies... without that context it was an unfortunate comment imo.

Maybe more important than shareholders are employees, whom are paid in shares/options. Give them some love Elon.

 

[22522]

He qualified it with current financial metrics. This is what he has always said and it is true, but company valuations are and should be based of expectations of the future.

He really needs to work with Investor Relations folks to fine tune his messaging on this. It's very frustrating to shareholders.

I think he is playing it right.

1. People with money know stock price reflects future.
2. Workers at Tesla need to know that they have not arrived.
3. People are argumentative.

 

[MitchJi]

He qualified it with current financial metrics. This is what he has always said and it is true, but company valuations are and should be based of expectations of the future.

He really needs to work with Investor Relations folks to fine tune his messaging on this. It's very frustrating to shareholders options holders.

Why is that frustrating to shareholders?

 

[Curt Renz]

I think he is playing it right.

1. People with money know stock price reflects future.
2. Workers at Tesla need to know that they have not arrived.
3. People are argumentative.

+1

Elon in answer to the Kentucky governor’s question, “I’ve gone on record several times saying that the stock price is higher than we have any right to deserve. That’s for sure true based on where we are today and where we have been in the past. The stock price obviously reflects a lot of optimism about where Tesla will be in the future.” Short sellers have jumped on only the first sentence of the statement every time Elon has said it. The resulting FUD from short sellers has become stale and ineffective.

Elon has essentially said this same thing many times before. The Kentucky governor seemed fishing to help him ascertain Elon’s degree of credibility. The straightforward answer should have provided reassurance to all the governors.

At this conference Elon would have been seeking the assistance of the governors to achieve his goals for Tesla, SpaceX and humanity. He needed to appear completely on the level, which he did. The governors may soon be falling over one another to provide incentives to get Tesla factories built in their states. Perhaps some of those blocking Tesla’s direct sales model were sufficiently humbled.

 

[kenliles]

[No one could foretell] the Libertarian Macron winning in France then threatening to bringing down the hammer on French ICEv market.

Analysis: What will Macron and France do on climate change?

French election 2017: Emmanuel Macron policies – what is his manifesto?

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017...p-please-come-france-says-presidental-hopeful

Macron mocks Trump in video

World blasts US President Donald Trump for pulling out of climate change deal

No one could foretell the Chinese government bringing down the hammer on legacy automakers in 2018.

It's already foretold, and behind schedule--
Tesla is built on this foretell and missioned to accelerating it.

 

[SPadival]

I must say the governors asked better questions than shareholders at the annual shareholders meeting. What does that say about us?

 

[GoTslaGo]

I must say the governors asked better questions than shareholders at the annual shareholders meeting. What does that say about us?

I would hope the governors ask better questions!

 

[bdy0627]

He actually said that TSLA is overpriced .

Again! (even while we're trying to get this latest bear attack behind us!). Any wild guesses at bear headlines for Monday??