2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[JRP3]

Porsche installs 350kW charge station which it's cars can't use Porsche installs first ultra-fast 350 kW EV charging station
I'm thinking of installing an empty box that says "400kW" in my driveway.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If Tesla can ramp Model 3 production up to 5,000 per week by December, along with a more clear timeline to 10,000 per week ("some time in 3Q18" for example) and 20-25% gross margin, I would expect the stock to move above $1,000 per share by end 2Q18.

 

[ggr]

Porsche installs 350kW charge station which it's cars can't use Porsche installs first ultra-fast 350 kW EV charging station
I'm thinking of installing an empty box that says "400kW" in my driveway.

I would label it "Caution: 1,000,000Ω".

 

[Krugerrand]

If I knew that putting my home on the line would help put Einhorn out of his, I would been ALL IN ON THIS.

I don't get it. According to that chart, there have been numerous times to get out of the short (one really good one in particular) and plenty of times to dollar cost average.

But yeah I'd not be sad if people like this were pushed over the financial cliff, as it were.

 

[AlMc]

If Tesla can ramp Model 3 production up to 5,000 per week by December, along with a more clear timeline to 10,000 per week ("some time in 3Q18" for example) and 20-25% gross margin, I would expect the stock to move above $1,000 per share by end 2Q18.

I appreciate your unabashed enthusiasm for TSLA and the work you do in modeling.

I will be happy if we see half that PT on June 30, 2018

 

[techmaven]

I can't help but wonder what crazy world people on this forum live in. I constantly read that traditional automakers will be going out of business soon. That is SO naive. Most of these companies have withstood wars, depressions, recessions, scandals, and the sort. I can assure you that Tesla's 100k car sales this year is not going to put mu

Or not? GM just went bankrupt, Chrysler filed chapter 11 bankruptcy and went through a managed buyout and is now part of Fiat. Ford borrowed $22 billion dollars ($15.9 billion in commercial paper, $5.9 billion in ATVM loan) during that period. U.S. taxpayers ended up paying around $9 billion to bail them out. Chrysler was also bailed out in 1979 with $1.5 billion dollars.

VW is literally government motors. The government of Lower Saxony owned 20%... and Porsche used options trading during the financial crisis to engineer a takeover of VW:

Porsche crashes into controversy in the ultimate 'short squeeze'

Without such support, who knows what would have happened to them as hedge funds were shorting them heavily.

This upcoming change to, borrowing the Chinese term, new energy vehicles is likely the most transformative change in the industry since before WW2. It wouldn’t be surprising that there will be companies that will misplay this... and we’ll see how taxpayers feel about bailouts this time.

Think about Apple’s NAND flash lock up during the iPod heyday... and translate that to lithium ion battery cell production. Think about the iPhone launch with Nokia, Blackberry, and Microsoft. Or how Kodak helped invent their own demise. These are very real risks, and Detroit has gotten into trouble time and again relying on gas guzzling trucks and larger vehicles for profits. They have gotten much better, but I expect a lot of carnage in the next decade. The South Korean automakers actually used the financial crisis to elevate their position.

 

[EinSV]

I don't get it. According to that chart, there have been numerous times to get out of the short (one really good one in particular) and plenty of times to dollar cost average.

But yeah I'd not be sad if people like this were pushed over the financial cliff, as it were.

I continue to be amazed at the stubbornness of people shorting TSLA. TSLA has been heavily shorted for years -- an investment strategy that since the IPO has a cumulative return of -2000% -- the equivalent of losing your initial investment twenty times over if anyone were dumb enough to stick with it that long. It has to be one of worst investment strategies of the last decade.

To make a terrible investment even worse, in the past year short interest peaked at the worst possible time -- when the share price bottomed in late 2016. So on average shorts sold low and bought (covered) even higher than necessary. And to top it all off, short sellers get to pay interest for the privilege of losing their shirts -- modest now but steep part of last year.

I expect the only ones making money shorting TSLA (other than a handful of very lucky market timers) are hedge funds who get paid 2% per year to burn their investors' funds.

But it does seems like this may not end until Tesla is consistently GAAP profitable. Maybe by that point shorts will have lost a collective 10,000% since the IPO on their "investments."

 

[Mo City]

If Tesla can ramp Model 3 production up to 5,000 per week by December, along with a more clear timeline to 10,000 per week ("some time in 3Q18" for example) and 20-25% gross margin, I would expect the stock to move above $1,000 per share by end 2Q18.

Agree with you but that is very unlike to happen.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Agree with you but that is very unlike to happen.

I'm assuming you agree with the share price prediction, given the scenario I laid out, but that you believe the scenario is unlikely.

Which part would you say is most unlikely piece to happen?

 

[Krugerrand]

I continue to be amazed at the stubbornness of people shorting TSLA.

I imagine the shorts are saying much the same thing about the longs. LOL!

 

[generalenthu]

didn't see this posted here about Elon meeting several governors.

Tesla Model Y Suitors Will Meet Elon Musk at Governors Meeting | Inverse

 

[AlMc]

I imagine the shorts are saying much the same thing about the longs. LOL!

Yep:
The two cults of Tesla: do you bet on Elon Musk, or against him?

 

[Curt Renz]

Buy TSLA recommendation on CNBC after market closed Friday: 7 trades to make for next week

 

[Krugerrand]

Yep:
The two cults of Tesla: do you bet on Elon Musk, or against him?

You have to be a fool of the worst kind to bet against Elon Musk. Not because he's Elon Musk, but rather because betting against him is a blatant bet against the planet and man. Who does that? What kind of a person must you be to want to see Elon Musk's companies fail? You certainly don't have to believe he can accomplish his goals, you can even be of the opinion they'll most likely fail, but to bet they'll fail, want them to fail, and try to convince others that failure is imminent via manipulation, made up propaganda, etc... Blech.

 

[Navin]

Tesla Model Y Suitors Will Meet Elon Musk at Governors Meeting | Inverse

Watch live today!! Link

 

[SwTslaGrl]

45% market cap! Elon Musk's SpaceX is Leading the Launch Race With 45 Percent of Market Cap

 

[MitchJi]

The two cults of Tesla: do you bet on Elon Musk, or against him?

The Model 3 could help determine which cult of Tesla, if either, wins out.

"I think it may be a great inflection point -- if pre-orders increase and Musk can actually follow through on his optimistic production predictions, Tesla stock should rally," Dusaniwsky wrote. "So far the shorts have been 'short squeeze resistant' but a sizable price rally might push their tolerance to a tipping point and we might finally see a wave of short covering that would spike Tesla's price like a turbocharger boosts a gas powered car."

Why Tesla's Short Sellers Should Be Scared

For the week ending June 2, investors betting against Tesla have combined mark-to-market losses of $442 million, and for the second week running, it was the worst performing stock for short investors. Year to date, these losses have surpassed a whopping $5 billion.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

didn't see this posted here about Elon meeting several governors.

Tesla Model Y Suitors Will Meet Elon Musk at Governors Meeting | Inverse

Tesla Model Y Suitors Will Meet Elon Musk at Governors Meeting | Inverse

Watch live today!! Link

Thank you to both! I'll be GLUED to this.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla updates Supercharger page with 900 Supercharger Stations, 6000 Superchargers, annual credits, time expectations, and cost comparison • r/teslamotors

On this page, Tesla assumes Supercharger cost of $0.20/kWh.

Potentially 2x of revenue than what I has assumed in my model for Tesla Semi with $0.10/kWh.

 

[brian45011]

I thought this was an interesting article. The CAES in Alabama has been in operation since 1981. If it is proven tech and dirt cheap why is their only one such operation in the US and only two in the world?

Poor journalism? (relying on a company's statement rather than independent investigation.)

DOE Global Energy Storage Database