dmckinstry
Model X 2019
The Aussies complain about not having a delivery date yet.
Get real. Does anyone outside those scheduled for the July 28th delivery know their delivery date?
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Get real. Does anyone outside those scheduled for the July 28th delivery know their delivery date?
sundaymorning
Active Member
I see your angle, but look on the bright side, Elon isn't pumping the stock. Which means his $600 Billion valuation for Tesla comes from his IQ and not EQ. I'm ok with sticking around here in the forums for the next 5 years for that Apple valuation to be realized.
By the way, when you're CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, presumably one of the brightest humans alive, absolutely no one tells you what to say.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
My comment was on the article, not on anything you did or didn't say
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So you think the misleading autopilot crash news and other FUD articles had no effect on the stock price today, and it was all from Elon repeating the same statement he's made a number of times before?
To the shorts (specifically @howardoark). Why am I long TSLA? I will borrow a term: "Ecosystem" (quoting option_sniper@option_snipper on twitter).
What differentiates a Tesla from any other EV is their network of superchargers. Tesla is creating an ecosystem for their cars. No other traditional automobile manufacturer is doing this, VW might...kicking and screaming*, which should ensure a "quality" (sarcasm intended) product in the future.
Why is this important? Most people have one car for that 20-100 mile daily commute and for that 300-1000 mile yearly vacation. The superchargers have made it a no-brainer to travel far and wide using a Tesla, and this makes a Tesla a complete ICE replacement.
What about other future EVs (the Tesla killers)? No other EV has access (for now) to this network...which is growing, easy to use, dependable and amazingly fast. Other EV drivers drool over Tesla's network, and have created AC charging adapters to use Tesla's AC network (not supercharger), technically illegally. That's how compelling it is. Other fast charging networks in the US (not necessarily in Europe) are really anemic, or geographically isolated--definitely charge more.
So let's say another automaker comes out with a 300-400 mile EV that can fast charge. But fast charge where? Who's going to spend the money to make that infrastructure? Well the obvious answer is that Tesla already has it, and it's really convenient to use.
So in the future, unless some other automaker is willing to pay to duplicate Tesla's network, for anyone to fully replace an ICE, Tesla will be the only complete game in town. Other networks charge per use, and I've seen campsites make their chargers (14-50) available to for a price... how much?
One place on I-40 near Flagstaff, AZ offers all day charging for 40 dollars. Another place down the highway offers 14-50 access for 3.45/hour--which translate to 20 miles of range for 3.45. Whereas I can supercharge infinite miles for free. And I can charge my 100D to 80-90% (265 miles) typically in less than an hour [caveats of original state of charge, etc...].
When Tesla starts building out their network with batteries and PV, Tesla's costs will be just maintenance---no additional price to pay for fuel (ask any convenience store owner, gas is where they lose money or barely eek out a profit). In the future I suspect that other automakers will start to use Tesla's supercharger network, likely for a fee--why reinvent the wheel? If they don't, they'll have to pony up for one or rely on the "future" VW network.
Don't forget about OTA updates (akin to Apple iOS updates, included... not like Microsoft's prior model). IMHO as Tesla builds out it's fleet it will have the OTA updates to create a Tesla-centric app ecosystem. One big reason why I am bullish on their choice of two additional board members from the media world.
That being said. If one is an opportunistic short and good with the TAs, TSLA is a good one to play with (as short term long-sided traders will say too). Its volatility makes it a good one to play with short term. IMHO, long term shorting is a losing proposition.
*Dieselgate settlement money.
What differentiates a Tesla from any other EV is their network of superchargers. Tesla is creating an ecosystem for their cars. No other traditional automobile manufacturer is doing this, VW might...kicking and screaming*, which should ensure a "quality" (sarcasm intended) product in the future.
Why is this important? Most people have one car for that 20-100 mile daily commute and for that 300-1000 mile yearly vacation. The superchargers have made it a no-brainer to travel far and wide using a Tesla, and this makes a Tesla a complete ICE replacement.
What about other future EVs (the Tesla killers)? No other EV has access (for now) to this network...which is growing, easy to use, dependable and amazingly fast. Other EV drivers drool over Tesla's network, and have created AC charging adapters to use Tesla's AC network (not supercharger), technically illegally. That's how compelling it is. Other fast charging networks in the US (not necessarily in Europe) are really anemic, or geographically isolated--definitely charge more.
So let's say another automaker comes out with a 300-400 mile EV that can fast charge. But fast charge where? Who's going to spend the money to make that infrastructure? Well the obvious answer is that Tesla already has it, and it's really convenient to use.
So in the future, unless some other automaker is willing to pay to duplicate Tesla's network, for anyone to fully replace an ICE, Tesla will be the only complete game in town. Other networks charge per use, and I've seen campsites make their chargers (14-50) available to for a price... how much?
One place on I-40 near Flagstaff, AZ offers all day charging for 40 dollars. Another place down the highway offers 14-50 access for 3.45/hour--which translate to 20 miles of range for 3.45. Whereas I can supercharge infinite miles for free. And I can charge my 100D to 80-90% (265 miles) typically in less than an hour [caveats of original state of charge, etc...].
When Tesla starts building out their network with batteries and PV, Tesla's costs will be just maintenance---no additional price to pay for fuel (ask any convenience store owner, gas is where they lose money or barely eek out a profit). In the future I suspect that other automakers will start to use Tesla's supercharger network, likely for a fee--why reinvent the wheel? If they don't, they'll have to pony up for one or rely on the "future" VW network.
Don't forget about OTA updates (akin to Apple iOS updates, included... not like Microsoft's prior model). IMHO as Tesla builds out it's fleet it will have the OTA updates to create a Tesla-centric app ecosystem. One big reason why I am bullish on their choice of two additional board members from the media world.
That being said. If one is an opportunistic short and good with the TAs, TSLA is a good one to play with (as short term long-sided traders will say too). Its volatility makes it a good one to play with short term. IMHO, long term shorting is a losing proposition.
*Dieselgate settlement money.
I think this part of Elon's talk on Saturday might have scared some investors, and been responsible for today's price action.
"Excruciatingly slow S curve" brings back memories of the Model X production start. Not that I think it'll be like that with the Model 3, but Elon does not yet seem to be ready to report production is ready to surge one week into the start of production.
youtube.com/watch?v=2C-A797y8dA&t=54m55s
"Excruciatingly slow S curve" brings back memories of the Model X production start. Not that I think it'll be like that with the Model 3, but Elon does not yet seem to be ready to report production is ready to surge one week into the start of production.
youtube.com/watch?v=2C-A797y8dA&t=54m55s
howardoark
Member
In fairness, I did say that the Goldman Sachs price target being my absolute up side to the share price (it's a wonderful company with terrific products that no sane person wouldn't want, it's share price is, in my opinion, way ahead of itself) was a coincidence.
No one in your family has driven an M3 (to test for tinnyness) so it's early to state it will have a monopoly position amongst your relatives.
Even if it is your car of choice, it is still way out of the price range of the typical family (in the US, let alone the rest of the world).
howardoark
Member
How does Tesla, without a moat in a mature cut-throat industry with very many deep-pocketed competitors equal Apple? I will even grant you that Elon Musk = Steve Jobs (maybe even >=). But the lithium ion battery patents expired ~2000 and there are 50 car companies capable of building electric battery cars most of them with vastly deeper pockets (or government support that is basically infinite) than Tesla (which builds great products that look cool, wish I had $120,000 I could blow on a depreciating asset). So Musk could be a combination Jobs/Tesla and he couldn't turn his company into Apple (I'm long Apple, so hopefully Cook won't turn Apple into Tesla).
Reciprocity
Active Member
You should like really really increase your short position based on that analysis alone. Really.
howardoark
Member
Please, go on. Point to some cogent posts.I'm short; 99% of the people on this forum are long, so I know I come across as a jerk. But really, short term stock prices are determined by the average investor and the average investor is, by definition, not a genius. So no one should take any of this personally.
I'm specially interested in how Tesla will raise sufficient capital to build out the giga factories, the charging networks, the new assembly lines, the PV factories (maybe pay for some TV ads now that they're going mass market). Tell me how they'll beat Waymo and Intel to a mass market Level 5 autonomous vehicle technology (Musk is not doing any programming). I'm really interested in how many Model 3's they'll sell (how many of those 400,000 deposits will turn into ~$40,000 sales - especially if the resale market doesn't live up to people's expectations - all of you who put down $5k expecting you'll be able to resell them for double the asking price). Really, if you have money in this company (and just because its the casino's money, doesn't mean you couldn't pay your kid's tuition with it at this point) you should have some quantitative explanation for why you're long (e.g., they'll sell six million TM3's over the next 5 years, have $150 million in capx, win Motor Trend's car of the year, et cetera). Please, lay it out for me. Because as far as I can tell, the Tesla longs are just like the SNL Super Fans skit with Tesla as Da Bears and Elon Musk as Coach Ditka (So, yeah, Elon Musk versus a tornado, who wins?)
pz1975
Active Member
Only took you about 3-4 posts to go from "genuine short" to "concerned bear" to insults. Well done.
you ask a multi pronged question, partially existential
1st) , go read this and other things by Tony Seba
https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...30c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf about the end of vehicles and individual ownership and such
2nd) realize, it's not just Tesla, it is also SpaceX, watch the videos of rocketships sucessfully landing (im almost 70 and that is stunning, i watched the grasshopper video about 40 times, screaming and yelling)July 2013, barely 4 years ago
realize these rockets are coming in at Mach 7 to Mach 10 and with realtime video, come to pinpoint landings (well, ok, maybe 10 ft off)
SpaceX needs 40+ Big Freaking Rockets to have a "conveyor belt" to shuttle things between Mars and Earth and the solar system, and they will be reusable, really really BFR's
3rd) he wants to do Neural nets, seriously, think what that means, read/writes for our brains, seriously
4th ) he wants to colonize and TERRAFORM another planet, Mars, freaking terraform, as do major portions of the planet, millions!!
5th) he has an army of literally 100's of thousands or millions who share all these dreams and really really want to succeed
6th) by the way, his folks make one Helluv a vehicle, that runs on sunlight and fusion power (the sun) he model S and Model X
7th), he wants to convert the planet, earth, to renewables and end the use of fossil fuels, and millions of people agree all around the globe
8th) from a strictly numbers and financial point of view, over the last 7.5 months, the short sellers have sold LOW and bought HIGH and have lost about $4.6Billion in aggregate (short interest on 11/30/2016, 35.7 million shares sold for about max $6.76 billion covered 8.4 million shares at bout $1.5 billion and owe on remaining 27.3 million shares $9.8 billion for a loss of about $4.6billion, do you want to join them?)
You are shorting against an "Idea" personified by Musk at your financial peril.
You stand upon the cusp of the revolution and in the midst of a technological singularity you are but dimly unaware of
An exponential curve you walk along, looks flat behind you, and vertical in front of you.
Your choice, future or past, use you device that would have been magic 10 years ago, to call your broker, the other side of the planet, and watch a live stream of the Mars rover, casually, while you ask your weak AI, Alexa, to change the station, order food, whatever you may think of
remember if you had bought AAPL prior to June, 1987 (i didnt and weep occasionally as i almst did) your AAPL would be worth $8,375/share (split adjusted)
can you do that with a short? Lightning like Tesla strikes once or twice in a lifetime. I missed the bolt of lightning the last few times, not this time
I hope this answers your question
(terraform MARS!!)
we gave up the dream 25-35 years ago, and it's being born anew
9)for a final answer, a touch of inspiration for you, only a few minutes long
WANDERERS -Short Film
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I always regret it when I give shorts the benefit of the doubt. Y'all seem to be cut from the same cloth. Which I suppose is why you keep making bad bets.
DurandalAI
Member
I was going to let the others reply to you and just enjoy my popcorn while browsing from my phone, but you made me pull out my laptop.
(Emphasis mine) Who put down $5k for a Model 3 deposit? Only if you reserved 5 somehow? (Limit is 2 per person.) I enjoyed your relatively well thought out short concerns in earlier posts, as I enjoy having my perspective challenged, but your thinking that a Model 3 reservation is $5k only points out to one of two things:
1. You've NOT done your research on your short position... Bad investor!
2. You're just throwing number out there because you're not a genuine short, and are simply here for grins/giggles.
Which is it?
howardoark
Member
I'm up $11k so far - though that's just because there were so many people short when I first tried to short TSLA (at $225) that Schwab wanted a minimum $50,000 position and was going to charge me 3% interest on top of that. I tried again at $300, same story. They let me short 50 shares at $382 and I've shorted six more times since then (all 50 shares at a time). Schwab let me short a measly 50 shares without paying 3% interest on the borrow (I forgo the 0.3% interest they pay me on my cash for the $110k I'm short) because six million shares had been covered between January 1st and today. So, yeah, I've been horribly wrong about TSLA in the past and I'm currently right and could easily be wrong again in the near future. Everyone long was right for a long time, is currently wrong and could easily be right agin in the future.
The big trouble with being short is that every day you're wrong, your problem gets worse. Whereas when you're long and wrong, every day your problem gets smaller. I am keenly aware of that dichotomy. Short sellers help longs in the short term (because we allow you to buy shares at a lower price) and whether we're right or wrong, we help you in the long term (covering drives up the price and if Elon Musk gets caught in bed with a dead girl [Edwin Edwards reference, assuming him getting caught in bed with a live boy wouldn't hurt TSLA] shorts will be the only people buying which will support the share price and help you get out).
PS: thank you
Drumheller
Active Member
DurandalAI
Member
Oh, almost throwing a bone to the shorts.. I went on a 4 day vacation to one of those places where they actually have a Tesla sales/service center as opposed to BFE where I live, (I went to Chicago for a bunch of metal bands at Chicago Open Air) anyhow, I test drove a Model X, managed to leave without buying one amazingly enough, but only because I'm waiting for the Model 3, but I would have to admit that I felt that Autopilot was a little ping-pongy, admittedly the road was a bit rough. It seems Illinois has budget problems or some nonsense... At any rate, still looking towards my Model 3, as I know AP2 will be better than what I tested when I test drove that Model X.
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