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Retail Longs and shorts have the same information available to them. My very simple answer is I would rather risk losing money on the principle that the glass is half full than the glass is half empty.
If you have read my posts I am not afraid to offer criticism (hopefully constructive) of issues that disappoint me regarding Tesla/EM. but ultimately I want this company and mission statement to succeed so I will not hope for their demise as being short, in essence, does.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
IRVINE, Calif., Feb. 1, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- The analysts at Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry, today reported the estimated average transaction price (ATP) for light vehicles in the United States was $34,968 in January 2017.
New-Car Transaction Prices Remain High, Up More Than 3 Percent Year-Over-Year In January 2017, According To Kelley Blue Book
Tesla does not need 51% market share to be wildly successful.
In 2019 3% in US-Canada, 1.5% in Western Europe, and .5% in China-South Korea
In 2025 10% in US-Canada, 4% in Western Europe, and 2% in China-South Korea
This makes Tesla wildly successful. Tesla doesn't need the average American Family much less the Average Nigerian family to buy a Model 3/Y to be wildly successful . Being affordable to 45% of American and West European New Car buyers plus 7% of Chinese New Car buyers(and ~30% of South Korean new car buyers) is more than sufficient.
howardoark
Member
I am genuinely short 350 shares at an average price of $351. But I am really lucky there, see above.
I knew the deposit was $1000. I was unaware that there was a limit of 2 per customer - so between you, and your significant other, and your mom and dad, you would only be able to reserve 8 TM3s. Which is really a no-lose proposition since the deposit is refundable - specially if you live in California.
I am doing my best not to be a troll. If I'm right and the 99% here are wrong, I won't be here making fun of you when you reach the Kübler-Ross depression stage (after denial, anger, and bargaining, but before acceptance.) I have the potential of $123,000 in profit and limitless losses at stake here, so clearly I'd like to hear the other side of the story - the Model S is a great car and Elon Musk is a genius, does that justify a $53 billion market cap for TSLA - Musk said he didn't think so this weekend. Why is everyone here so sure?
thank you for your comment, wish i had read thru before i answered previously
my sincere and cogent thoughts would be to continue shorting, specifically sell as many put options as schwab will allow you to, specifically either the $50 or $100 1/18/2019 put options, maybe do close to as much margin as schwab will allow, say a leeway of 20%, 10% if you are gutsy and good at shorting, up $11,000 so far, quite nice.
i'm doing this ONLY because you explicitely asked and bear no responsibility for your losses or gains your investing decisions are yours and your alone
hope this helps, i will watch in fascination
When the Model S came out, did you think it would be a failure because "obviously" there is no market as it was not developed by conventional car companies?
For that matter, why did conventional car companies NOT develop the Model S 5 years ago?
Why have they STILL not made a Model S?
For that matter, why did conventional car companies NOT develop the Model S 5 years ago?
Why have they STILL not made a Model S?
Well....
1.) Test drove a Tesla.
2.) Bought the stock while waiting for my Tesla to build.
3.) Drive a Tesla daily.
4.) Added to Tesla positions.
5.) Will only buy Tesla's in the future if the possible.
I don't really have a whole lot of words to defend my long position. I am thinking you believe you have an information edge based on what you know.
I must think I have an information edge on the little I know.
We have both placed our bets accordingly!
au contraire,i think we longs should help Howard with his short the best way we know how. he has $11,000 paper profit, i think he could do extremely well with that $11,000 profit by locking it in with a bunch of 1/18/2019 PUT contracts of say $50 and $100, maybe with a touch of margin but not too much, maybe keep a cushion of 10 to 20% safety, just a random thought, but not advice, just musings, any thoughts?
I was inclined to ignore your original question... the thesis for Tesla's rise is a lot of work and there are plenty of people that have given lengthy arguments pro and con. Therefore, your original question is more apt for Yahoo! Finance Boards or something like that, where people throw short form word salads at each other. You can't possibly expect that people would write up everything that goes into answering your question, and I really couldn't care less if one more short adds to their position. It isn't like there aren't plenty already. But if you really want to know, there's a lot of material to go over. That includes various speeches made by Tarpenning, Musk, and JB Straubel. It includes listening to long term investors like Ron Baron. It means reading the reports by analysts and futurists. There are plenty.
However, this question you posed here is a bit easier to provide a short form answer. You think that the automobile industry is mature and cut throat with deep pocketed competitors. Sure, that's a reasonable view if there wasn't thing concerning a movement towards electric vehicles. Instead, the mass production road worthy electric vehicle industry is very young. And the deep pocketed competitors are not spending their deep pockets on electrification in sufficient amounts. They also still have to do R&D for updated versions of their legacy products as well as satisfy shareholders with reasonable dividends and earnings. Therefore, they are not spending enough money to aggressively move towards electric vehicles. Some are still stuck on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or just assume they will be able to wait and allow others to lead in electrification for a number of very pragmatic and, at first glance, completely reasonable reasons. This also means that the major automakers tend to short shrift the development of EV technologies, taking very short term decisions amongst the many thousands of design and production decisions necessary to bring a modern vehicle to market.
Before I move on, do you really believe the lithium ion batteries have not changed in the past 40 years? Your patent question indicates to me that you really do not understand the technologies, the competitive positions, nor the complexities of R&D, production, and the patents. Do you know the difference between the battery cells in a 2008 Tesla Roadster, the 2010 Nissan Leaf, the 2012 Tesla Model S, the 2015 Kia Soul EV, the 2016 Chevy Bolt, or the 2017 Tesla Model S/X 100? If you don't, you are woefully ignorant to be investing in this space. Do you understand the competitive positions between the cell level and pack level specific energy? The cooling capability? The charge cycle lifespan? The cost per kWh at the cell and the pack level? How about the supplier contracts and the ability to source the cells? How about the differences in the electric motors between a Tesla Model S and the Chevy Bolt? Or the IGBT design differences? Do you know the fundamental differences between the electric vehicle technologies that go into a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versus a long range BEV?
Your dismissive comment, "50 car companies capable of building electric battery cars" belies a complete misread of the industry. BYD is one of the biggest EV manufacturers by volume. But all of their battery production is LiFePO4 and the resulting BEV, the BYD e6 is terrible. Do you know why? Is it just the battery, or will BYD be able to make U.S. or EU spec vehicles any time soon?
You have to ask, why hasn't any major automaker made a straight up Model S competitor (long range BEV in the luxury mid to large sized sport sedan category)? Matter of fact, none of them will through 2019 at least. That will be 7 years of uncontested time. You have to look at what these manufacturers will bring to market and critically analyze what technologies they can bring to bear, what production volumes, and when this will all unfold. I think you will find that it takes time to sort out the motor controller of a high powered AC induction motor design. It takes time to design, implement, and test a new battery management and cooling system for battery cells. These aren't things that the major automakers cannot do, but it is not part of their current core competencies. They tend to choose easier to develop and bring to market versions and assume they will have time later to develop more suitable technologies for long range BEVs.
I leave you with this. In 2016, Tesla alone shipped more batteries in kWh than all of BYD + LG combined, the next two largest automotive battery manufacturers. If you cut out the non-competitive LiFePO4 chemistry, then LG + AESC + Samsung SDI + SKI all together didn't ship as much volume as Tesla alone. And that will repeat in 2017. And 2018. And likely 2019 and 2020. Since large scale battery production plants takes years to bring up to speed, we can project the marketshare of advanced LIBs in 2019 already. Instead of being one of the smallest players, in the world of battery electric vehicles, Tesla commands the highest volumes and the highest revenue. Which also translates into much higher scale of the most expensive parts of a battery electric vehicle... the battery cells, the battery pack integration, the power electronics, the motors, and the chargers. No one else even comes close. Which means Tesla often has the lowest cost, highest capacity, and best technology when it comes to EV specific parts of a vehicle. And that dominates the capacity limitations, feature/specs of the vehicles, and the COGS. Simply, you do not understand Tesla's moat and the implications with just the electric vehicle production and technologies.
This is before we even address the overall ecosystem like DC and AC charging as well as autonomous driving in the vehicle space as well as the development of solar and energy storage systems to look at the entire mosaic of a new energy company.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Oh wow, thought you really had a big Short on, like that movie about the mortgage crisis. I almost feel bad for a sec. I think you should go big. Double down, just like that movie. What's cooler then a million dollars, a billion dollars. Go big or go home.
It's really pointless trying to convince someone who can't see the forest though the smog. Not everyone lives in a place where they can really feel the world changing and them. What confusing then seems to be a complete and utter lack of imagination. For example, I thought Apple was a joke with no Jobs and trying to make clone Macs back around 2000 when Jobs was doing Next, which was an even bigger joke. I mistakenly discounted them because I lacked imagination. So I got to see first hand the world morph around me from crappy mono tone feature phones and Palm pilots to iPhones almost overnight. The sad part is I got it, I mean I understood the value. I had a Windows pocket pc phone and a g1 Android phone. If I had bought Apple stock the day I started using that pocket pc, I would be messing about on this forum with you fool's, I'd be on a beach with much more attractive people.
Tesla is no Apple and Elon is different then Jobs. But when all is said and done, who will have changed the world more? We lost Jobs to soon, I think Elon is way farther out there with his ideas. I think that bothers people who cannot open their minds. All I will say as advice is to go back in time and remember what you thought of the first iPhone. I mean honestly. Did you look at that device and say, wow that's going to change everything and make Apple the first trillion dollar market cap company. Now tell me, what out there has that potential today. And I don't mean things like Facebook where you waste time thumbing through cat videos in hopes of seeing a picture from one of your close friends or family. I mean literally change the way people move and think about transportation. Now you could say Tesla is going to fail and Google is going to eat their lunch, but I said the same thing about Apple, it hasn't happened yet.
Elon is crazy but he had the nack for achieving the impossible. He is not what most think he is. He is not some angel sent to save humanity or some hyper liberal tree hugger. He is an entrepreneur who close the biggest problems to try to solve and in some so, he found the gap between innovation and profitability. At least the potential for profitability. No one has built a new car company in the US on 100 years and he decided to do it in California. It's like he likes pain. California is a nice place to live, if you're rich, but a terrible place to try to conduct business and even worse place to manufacture something like a car. That might be the most impressive thing he has ever done.
If your not convinced now, you should double or triple you short position. And never give up the dream of seeing Tesla burn. God knows they deserve to burn for there insolence. No one's allowed to change the world without permission from the powers that be.
Regarding all of the covfefe for new VW Golf based EV let's point a couple obvious points:
GM extends shutdown at Chevy Bolt plant as inventories swell
I love bs about GM implying that there is no problem with demand for Bolt, and shutdown is just because of the slump in demand for Sonic while Bolt's inventories are higher than what company set as a goal (111 days vs. 90 days), and while GM sold just 7,592 Bolts in 1H2017, which is 25% below the *lower* end of the annual production of 20K. If the demand for Sonic plummeted, while demand for the Bolt is healthy, why not keep the plant running, and let it build Bolts instead of Sonics?? After all GM proclaimed Bolt production capacity at 20K-30K units per year.
- This Golf-sized EV is going to be $7k-$8k more expensive than VW Golf. So it is an old play book - get and ICE platform, modify to add batteries and cost and wait for consumers to ... choose ICE over EV. This compares to Model 3 *at cost parity* with comparable ICE - BMW 3 Series, Audi A4, etc. Looser: VW Golf-sized EV. It will not steal any more sales from the Model 3 than VW Golf steals from sales of Audi A4 or BMW 3-Series.
- This Golf-sized EV is likely to be foot and a half shorter than Model 3, with at least 6 inches shorter wheel base, i.e. it is totally different class of vehicle. Once again, BMW 3-series and Audi A4 are $7K-$8K more expensive than VW Golf. How come VW Golf does not kill sales of these premium sedans?
GM extends shutdown at Chevy Bolt plant as inventories swell
I love bs about GM implying that there is no problem with demand for Bolt, and shutdown is just because of the slump in demand for Sonic while Bolt's inventories are higher than what company set as a goal (111 days vs. 90 days), and while GM sold just 7,592 Bolts in 1H2017, which is 25% below the *lower* end of the annual production of 20K. If the demand for Sonic plummeted, while demand for the Bolt is healthy, why not keep the plant running, and let it build Bolts instead of Sonics?? After all GM proclaimed Bolt production capacity at 20K-30K units per year.
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Very informative.
Doing my own reading as well.
What does "Buy to Cover" Mean? (with picture)
Maybe advice?
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
EVs are not just another bit of a "mature industry" they are replacing a mature industry, and the industry they represent is not mature.
There is no mature autonomous car industry either.
Tesla does have a moat, it is their time advantage in having already done much of he hard work in preparing for mass production of EVs and autonomy *and* the fact that they continue to move faster than the competition, the moat is widening not shrinking. (example of existing moat: battery pack construction tech, numerous small batteries are superior to few large batteries for high end vehicles, batteries are not scalable devices, Tesla has much higher energy density than the competition while retaining class leading power, cycle life and calendar life).
BTW; RIM, Microsoft, HPalm, these guys had deeper pockets than Apple to start.
Edit: I see Techmaven basically hit these points already, his post reminded me to mention that your comment on Li battery patents makes you look clueless on the topic, there are thousands of Li battery patents with more filed every year and thousands of different Li based battery chemistries.
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
Ameliorate
Member
The only thing shorts have going for them is fake news and the people who back it all. ie autopilot today misrepresented. It's something new every day and if you buy into it, i'm afraid there's little any of us can do to help. I think it's too late for the Musk empire to be stopped. The FUD may have hindered the SP at times and it's made for a bumpy ride but Tesla is pulling in to the launch pad (it's reusable btw)
FUD literally has Zero effect on me and my opinion of Tesla, if anything the desperation only goes to show how scared competing businesses are. I was however very concerned over Elons quote on the weekend, which would have caused me to step back and reconsider if I want All of my money in Tesla. He came around today, it's forgivable, he is human after all (or is he?)
You've done better than the vast majority of shorts, while many longs are sitting on close to a 10 bagger and making interest off shorts. Take your winnings while you can and really do some research, reinvest whichever way you see fit but Elon puts on a hell of a show, you'll see... two weeks and counting down.
Very enlightening chart The Extraordinary Size of Amazon in One Chart
Auto is so in need of innovation it hurts. Phones have occupied everybody in tech for a decade, they need something new to work on. Vehicles, it has to happen. Everyone else is too far behind, too hindered by unions and investors, outdated equipment, pensions, inventory oversupply, workers with the wrong skillset.
Ehhhhh, debatable.
Howard - you seem to discount the challenge the traditional automakers face in transitioning to electric. There will be many persons inside these companies that will not truly see how quickly the transition to EVs will occur and will not act with the urgency that all the recent press releases lead one to believe. I won't try to extrapolate out just how difficult a time they will have and how Tesla's mindshare with the public will be similar to Apple's. Any belief that competition will be ready at volumes to make any dent in Tesla sales is mistaken. The market is very large and growing. Tesla will capture a larger percentage of that growing EV market share while the traditional automakers (especially US based) will slowly see their share drop and inventories of ICE cars become problematic.
Your view of the situation is rooted in the continuation of the past/present. The landscape will look much different in two to three years. This will be the biggest disruption that the traditional automakers have seen. Unless they go all-in there will be challenges in the next few years.
I find Einhorn's position in particular very peculiar as he is on the wrong side of GM as well. You will read my comment in about a minute, but the events noted will take years. It is easy to discount this unless you think back at how different other technological landscapes were just 5 years ago.
Anyway, just my thoughts. I live in Stuttgart so I am in a unique position to watch this unfold. Mercedes has an office near my daughter's school with a Model X parked in the lot. MB is one of the few automakers to really be thinking and making a transition.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Not only does Elon not hug trees, he exploits trees for his own perverted pleasures.
A pattern?
Not only California but the Bay Area. The only thing more difficult would have been for Elon to announce building a green field heavy manufacturing site smack in the middle of Berkeley.
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