James Rupertson Murdoch? OMG. Unless they're trying to bribe the Wall St Journal, I cannot imagine why him?
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James Rupertson Murdoch? OMG. Unless they're trying to bribe the Wall St Journal, I cannot imagine why him?
IMHO, anyone who has a day job and is an independent director of more than 2 other companies is worthless. They can't spend enough time to pay attention.Do you mean Rupert's kids (i.e. - James), or James's children? I think you mean the former....I've not paid much attention but I have the vague recollection of being surprised at apparent significant differences in the sociopolitical positions of père and fils. Regardless, for me that was quite a shocker.
Not a real surprise to see Linda J Rice there - for obvious reasons, she is one of the most sought-after persons for the board of a US corporation. That, of course, means she gets to choose what companies, non-profits and others to join, so her acceptance alone bears nicely on Tesla.
I've absolutely zero contacts who can tell me if her board input is worthy.
That's precisely what's perplexing me. What is the value of adding two media executives?Brilliant choices! Both media executives!
Biting the hand that feeds you-- now explains recent tweet about wsj...That's precisely what's perplexing me. What is the value of adding two media executives?
And buy a VW or GM?If Twitter is any indication (it probably isn't) Mr. Murdock's appointment to the board is going to cause a lot of people to cancel Model 3 reservations and look to other car companies. The Murdock family is strongly disliked (to put it mildly) by a significant portion of Tesla's fans and potential customers, so these type of knee jerk reactions are probably to be expected, even though looking at the actions/history of the other car companies you would probably come to a view that they are worse than Mr. Murdock in basically all the ways these customers care about.
And buy a VW or GM?
That's precisely what's perplexing me. What is the value of adding two media executives?
Thinking ahead. The moment that level 5 FSD works, a car becomes pretty much just a mobile livingroom. What matters most is comfort and entertainment. SpaceX's cloud of low-earth orbit satellites (to be launched in the next couple of years) will provide low-latency, high bandwidth connectivity to Tesla vehicles, so that's covered. What's needed after that is user interface and content. I would hope media people would have some insight into that.That's precisely what's perplexing me. What is the value of adding two media executives?
I'm short Tesla. The Model S and the Roadster are amazing cars. Elon Musk is a genius. So, please don't hate me, educate me as to why I should cover.
My feeling is that Tesla needs a lot of things to go right for them. Some of those things are probable (not 100%) - the Model 3 will likely be an excellent vehicle; Elon Musk won't overdose on Ambien, a Model 3 won't spontaneously combust at a car show. Some of those things are unlikely (probability <50%) - Tesla will be able to ramp up to mass production without suffering embarrassing quality problems. Some of them are unlikely (<20% probability) - Americans will suddenly wake up to the vast superiority of electrical cars; Model 3 gross margins will be similar to Model S margins. And some of those things have a near zero chance of happening - the rest of the car industry will sit on their hands watching Tesla steal their business away from them; Tesla will able to raise $10 billion in capital without significantly diluting current shareholders.
Even if everything goes right for Tesla: Car & Driver declares the Model 3 the best car ever built, GM recalls all the Bolts and scraps them, Google and Intel (and every other car company) decide that self-driving cars is just to hard a nut to crack and abandon the effort, Warren Buffett invests $10 billion in Tesla at $400 a share, Tesla is still going to be a car company. The car business is incredibly cut-throat with low margins and high capital investment requirements. That's why Toyota sells for 66% of revenue and Ford sells for 30%. So if the Model 3 is a huge success and Tesla is selling a million of them a year (and 100,000 Model S/Xs) and has revenue on the order of $55 billion (throw in another $5 billion for the PV line, another low margin business) and it keeps its luxury car brand margins, that doesn't support the current market capitalization. In the best world ever, selling for 50% of revenue, Tesla might be worth $180 a share (that's just a coincidence that it's the same as the Goldman Sachs number). I see very little chance that everything goes right for Tesla. I see a much easier pathway to bankruptcy and a likely path toward significant dilution and sub $100 share prices.
So, before hitting that dislike button, please tell me why I'm wrong. Lay out the case for Tesla getting to Apple like valuation - which would make it 5x more valuable than Toyota and more valuable than the entire auto industry in total (not including parts manufacturers). Discuss the probabilities I laid out above, provide your own. Please, if I'm wrong, I want to cover before I lose any money.
I'm short Tesla. The Model S and the Roadster are amazing cars. Elon Musk is a genius. So, please don't hate me, educate me as to why I should cover.
My feeling is that Tesla needs a lot of things to go right for them. Some of those things are probable (not 100%) - the Model 3 will likely be an excellent vehicle; Elon Musk won't overdose on Ambien, a Model 3 won't spontaneously combust at a car show. Some of those things are unlikely (probability <50%) - Tesla will be able to ramp up to mass production without suffering embarrassing quality problems. Some of them are unlikely (<20% probability) - Americans will suddenly wake up to the vast superiority of electrical cars; Model 3 gross margins will be similar to Model S margins. And some of those things have a near zero chance of happening - the rest of the car industry will sit on their hands watching Tesla steal their business away from them; Tesla will able to raise $10 billion in capital without significantly diluting current shareholders.
Even if everything goes right for Tesla: Car & Driver declares the Model 3 the best car ever built, GM recalls all the Bolts and scraps them, Google and Intel (and every other car company) decide that self-driving cars is just to hard a nut to crack and abandon the effort, Warren Buffett invests $10 billion in Tesla at $400 a share, Tesla is still going to be a car company. The car business is incredibly cut-throat with low margins and high capital investment requirements. That's why Toyota sells for 66% of revenue and Ford sells for 30%. So if the Model 3 is a huge success and Tesla is selling a million of them a year (and 100,000 Model S/Xs) and has revenue on the order of $55 billion (throw in another $5 billion for the PV line, another low margin business) and it keeps its luxury car brand margins, that doesn't support the current market capitalization. In the best world ever, selling for 50% of revenue, Tesla might be worth $180 a share (that's just a coincidence that it's the same as the Goldman Sachs number). I see very little chance that everything goes right for Tesla. I see a much easier pathway to bankruptcy and a likely path toward significant dilution and sub $100 share prices.
So, before hitting that dislike button, please tell me why I'm wrong. Lay out the case for Tesla getting to Apple like valuation - which would make it 5x more valuable than Toyota and more valuable than the entire auto industry in total (not including parts manufacturers). Discuss the probabilities I laid out above, provide your own. Please, if I'm wrong, I want to cover before I lose any money.
I'm short Tesla. The Model S and the Roadster are amazing cars. Elon Musk is a genius. So, please don't hate me, educate me as to why I should cover.
My feeling is that Tesla needs a lot of things to go right for them. Some of those things are probable (not 100%) - the Model 3 will likely be an excellent vehicle; Elon Musk won't overdose on Ambien, a Model 3 won't spontaneously combust at a car show. Some of those things are unlikely (probability <50%) - Tesla will be able to ramp up to mass production without suffering embarrassing quality problems. Some of them are unlikely (<20% probability) - Americans will suddenly wake up to the vast superiority of electrical cars; Model 3 gross margins will be similar to Model S margins. And some of those things have a near zero chance of happening - the rest of the car industry will sit on their hands watching Tesla steal their business away from them; Tesla will able to raise $10 billion in capital without significantly diluting current shareholders.
Even if everything goes right for Tesla: Car & Driver declares the Model 3 the best car ever built, GM recalls all the Bolts and scraps them, Google and Intel (and every other car company) decide that self-driving cars is just to hard a nut to crack and abandon the effort, Warren Buffett invests $10 billion in Tesla at $400 a share, Tesla is still going to be a car company. The car business is incredibly cut-throat with low margins and high capital investment requirements. That's why Toyota sells for 66% of revenue and Ford sells for 30%. So if the Model 3 is a huge success and Tesla is selling a million of them a year (and 100,000 Model S/Xs) and has revenue on the order of $55 billion (throw in another $5 billion for the PV line, another low margin business) and it keeps its luxury car brand margins, that doesn't support the current market capitalization. In the best world ever, selling for 50% of revenue, Tesla might be worth $180 a share (that's just a coincidence that it's the same as the Goldman Sachs number). I see very little chance that everything goes right for Tesla. I see a much easier pathway to bankruptcy and a likely path toward significant dilution and sub $100 share prices.
So, before hitting that dislike button, please tell me why I'm wrong. Lay out the case for Tesla getting to Apple like valuation - which would make it 5x more valuable than Toyota and more valuable than the entire auto industry in total (not including parts manufacturers). Discuss the probabilities I laid out above, provide your own. Please, if I'm wrong, I want to cover before I lose any money.
So, before hitting that dislike button, please tell me why I'm wrong. Lay out the case for Tesla getting to Apple like valuation - which would make it 5x more valuable than Toyota and more valuable than the entire auto industry in total (not including parts manufacturers). Discuss the probabilities I laid out above, provide your own. Please, if I'm wrong, I want to cover before I lose any money.
James Murdoch is actually Labor, he's a Brit, not American. But he did donate to Hillary.The kids are democrats.
I'm short Tesla. The Model S and the Roadster are amazing cars. Elon Musk is a genius. So, please don't hate me, educate me as to why I should cover.
My feeling is that Tesla needs a lot of things to go right for them. Some of those things are probable (not 100%) - the Model 3 will likely be an excellent vehicle; Elon Musk won't overdose on Ambien, a Model 3 won't spontaneously combust at a car show. Some of those things are unlikely (probability <50%) - Tesla will be able to ramp up to mass production without suffering embarrassing quality problems. Some of them are unlikely (<20% probability) - Americans will suddenly wake up to the vast superiority of electrical cars; Model 3 gross margins will be similar to Model S margins. And some of those things have a near zero chance of happening - the rest of the car industry will sit on their hands watching Tesla steal their business away from them; Tesla will able to raise $10 billion in capital without significantly diluting current shareholders.
Even if everything goes right for Tesla: Car & Driver declares the Model 3 the best car ever built, GM recalls all the Bolts and scraps them, Google and Intel (and every other car company) decide that self-driving cars is just to hard a nut to crack and abandon the effort, Warren Buffett invests $10 billion in Tesla at $400 a share, Tesla is still going to be a car company. The car business is incredibly cut-throat with low margins and high capital investment requirements. That's why Toyota sells for 66% of revenue and Ford sells for 30%. So if the Model 3 is a huge success and Tesla is selling a million of them a year (and 100,000 Model S/Xs) and has revenue on the order of $55 billion (throw in another $5 billion for the PV line, another low margin business) and it keeps its luxury car brand margins, that doesn't support the current market capitalization. In the best world ever, selling for 50% of revenue, Tesla might be worth $180 a share (that's just a coincidence that it's the same as the Goldman Sachs number). I see very little chance that everything goes right for Tesla. I see a much easier pathway to bankruptcy and a likely path toward significant dilution and sub $100 share prices.
So, before hitting that dislike button, please tell me why I'm wrong. Lay out the case for Tesla getting to Apple like valuation - which would make it 5x more valuable than Toyota and more valuable than the entire auto industry in total (not including parts manufacturers). Discuss the probabilities I laid out above, provide your own. Please, if I'm wrong, I want to cover before I lose any money.
Since that has already occurred, how would you re-evaluate shorting a 'near zero chance of happening'And some of those things have a near zero chance of happening - the rest of the car industry will sit on their hands watching Tesla steal their business away from them;
[near zero chance of happening that] -Tesla will able to raise $10 billion in capital without significantly diluting current shareholders.