DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
I hope the author will excuse me for moving his input into this form, but I felt his input would be better served here.
Good input and reading
Good input and reading
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What confidence level can we assign to this article?
A brief case for elevators/ against ramps:
Typical maximum slope for a ramp is 1:6 (and this usually requires a dual slope at the start and end to avoid bottoming out). The X is 5.5 feet tall. assuming one foot for support structure, the minimum surface opening for the ramp (still single slope) is 6*(5.5+1) = 39 feet, plus the area for the vehicle to enter/ exit the ramp. Compare that with the size and elevator needs, Model X is 16.5 ft long, so call it 18.5 with one foot buffer. Less than half the area and wasted space.
Construction: Elevator is a vertical hole, ramp requires angular removal and bracing for imposed loads from above. The ramp needs a utility free path along its length. The elevator only needs a clear vertical path.
Total volume of material: Elevator is 18.5 * depth * width , Ramp 6*6.5*depth* width = 39*D*W (slope and height). The ramp requires about twice the material to be removed (worse if system designed for taller vehicle).
Flow direction: An elevator can handle traffic in either direction. A ramp is direction specific, so you need twice as many ramps as elevators (based on access point, not traffic count). So the volume and surface usages number are doubled again.
So in the space/ volume of 2 ramps (one inbound, one outbound), 4 elevators can be installed. In rush hour (primarily single direction), that can mean the elevator only needs to be 25% as fast as the ramps to achieve the same traffic flow rate.
Maintenance: Elevator needs checked out and greased. Ramps in cold climates need salted/ sanded/ plowed.
Access control: Easier to control access with the elevator than it is to prevent pedestrians/ unauthorized vehicles/ critters from entering ramp.
WhiskeySauer
Member
Definitely low confidence. These comments appear to be ~2 months old. Might have been from a closed-door meeting so hard to confirm it isn't just fluff.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Wow that is quite the analysis... if elevators are so much better then why dont they use them in underground parking garages today? How do you resolve the issue of volume. If thousands of cars need to get into the tunnel at a certain point at the same time. Sleds seem crazy for the same reason. You will need thousands of them and they add a lot of complexity. I would say sleds would only be used for ICEv and a toll would be charged to use them, otherwise EVs would use FSD and receive signals from the tunnel's brain for control and navigation. I could be eating some crow, but it seems over complicated and thus expensive and prone for technical issues.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The competitive advantage is supposed to be an advantage compared to ice vehicles, produced by oem's.
Elon is comparing it to EV's produced by other oem's.
This is a couple of weeks old, but Oregon passed a $2500 EV rebate bill, to match CA. An early 2018 Model 3 in Oregon would start at $25K
Oregon passes electric-car purchase rebates up to $2,500; new EV fees delayed to 2020
Oregon passes electric-car purchase rebates up to $2,500; new EV fees delayed to 2020
larmor
Active Member
Great post. Demonstrates the upcoming paradigm shift in transportation. Whether the article or link is true or not does not matter. The examples of uber/lyft changing the taxi paradigm or even better the netflix DVD paradigm-- imagine there was a time we'd walk to the mailbox to retrieve the DVD, then walk to the DVD player to put it on...
For further viewing entertainment and visions of the future i would suggest Wall-E...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Warren is losing it?
Wall Street nowadays is going gaga over the stocks of auto dealerships (especially after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought Van Tuyl Group) and automakers. I am in the minority in thinking that party will come to an end. Just like Tesla, Apple is not going to be using a dealership model to sell its cars. Just as with the iPhone, the company will want complete control of the buying experience.
If both Tesla and Apple bypass the dealership model, the GMs of the world will be at an even larger competitive disadvantage. They will have to abandon the dealership model too. Yes, I know, selling cars directly to consumers is not legal in many states, but if the U.S. Constitution could be amended 27 times, the law on car sales (which is an artifact of the Great Depression) can be amended as well. The traditional dealership model is unlikely to survive anyway, as its economics dramatically degrade in the electric-car world. A car with few moving parts and minimal electronics has few things to break. Consequently, electric cars will need less servicing, throttling the dealerships’ most important profit center.
Wall Street nowadays is going gaga over the stocks of auto dealerships (especially after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought Van Tuyl Group) and automakers. I am in the minority in thinking that party will come to an end. Just like Tesla, Apple is not going to be using a dealership model to sell its cars. Just as with the iPhone, the company will want complete control of the buying experience.
If both Tesla and Apple bypass the dealership model, the GMs of the world will be at an even larger competitive disadvantage. They will have to abandon the dealership model too. Yes, I know, selling cars directly to consumers is not legal in many states, but if the U.S. Constitution could be amended 27 times, the law on car sales (which is an artifact of the Great Depression) can be amended as well. The traditional dealership model is unlikely to survive anyway, as its economics dramatically degrade in the electric-car world. A car with few moving parts and minimal electronics has few things to break. Consequently, electric cars will need less servicing, throttling the dealerships’ most important profit center.
Nice post. Thanks.
Seeing batch processes as a first then last resort, If you look at the ratio of height to length. Would an escalator with a vertical middle section work if you needed a 50ft drop?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Last edited by a moderator:
Like button means something different than informative.
One more for the list:
If the system is 3-D, elevators allow stopping at the appropriate level for the tunnel you need. (Although, for single tunnels less than 40 feet deep, the elevator can be hydraulic which reduces complexity and parts.)
An underground garage wouldn't gain much from the use of elevators. The structure exists as a surface for cars to sit upon. The asynchronous/ random access entry/exit timing of the vehicle requires a travel lane along with the parking areas. So, given a travel lane must exist, and the surface for parking must exist, the most efficient configuration is to make the parking and travel surface also the ramp to other levels. Due to the necessity of the travel lane, the ramp is not pure wasted space.
For the Boring system, the access is synchronous/ FIFO, and the purpose is to get vehicles from a single point to one (or one of many) tunnel access points, so the less resources that takes, the better.
The sled gives the system a higher level of reliability/ stability by eliminating the variables inherent in using the traveler's vehicle.
Problems that exist when using vehicles as the motive means:
-Low battery
-Low tire pressure/ flat during transit
-Human override (for vehicles with internal controls)
-Communication with the vehicle in a real time setup (what generation can travel)
-Braking authority
The sleds would have a regular maintenance schedule, self diagnostics, and the ability to charge from the tunnel system. They could also have train style couplers to maximize density.
Real life anecdotes : I used to commute on I-275 from Canton, MI. First exit south of Ford Road is Michigan Avenue. I learned quickly to get the left lane due to the off ramp backing up onto the expressway every day. Not optimal.
20ish years ago I interviewed out in Portland. They had the red light green light set up to stagger entrance to the expressway from the on ramp, kept traffic flowing.
A ramp system has a higher rate it could get cars to the tunnel, but that capacity is overkill. If the tunnel is one lane, then the number of ramps to fully saturate the tunnel is 120 MPH/ avg ramp speed. So if you have 30 MPH zones feeding the tunnel, the 5th ramp is going nowhere. Likewise, in the unload direction, if > 25% of cars are going to a single ramp, the system, backs up. With elevators, the individual rate is lower, but the aggregate rate spreads out the load.
Let's say the tunnel goal speed is 120 MPH and the sled spacing is 140 ft (18.5 ft + average 0-60 braking distance).
Per mile of tunnel we can fit (5280/140) 38 vehicles maximum with 76 vehicles passing a point in one minute (4,560 per hour).
The time to intake a car if the start of the tunnel is open is 140ft/(120MPH*5280ft/mi/60min/hr/60sec/min) = 140/176 = 0.79 seconds, or 1.25 cars per second.
Now this is the maximum intake rate assuming an empty tunnel. An average commute in LA is 8.8 miles per Marketwatch 2015. So lets assume a vehicle trip distance of 8.8 miles (one off one on).
With uniform distribution, each mile loads/ unloads 1/8.8th of capacity. So for each mile, you can exchange 1.25/8.8 = 0.142 cars per second or 8.6 cars per minute. If the cycle time of the elevator system is 1 minute, then the total number of elevators needed to saturate the tunnel is 8.6 elevators per mile or one every (5280/.6) 614ft, roughly every two blocks.
Where the system works well is having multiple distributed elevators to spread the load/ unload. With the elevators/ sleds, the system knows where there are open arrival spots to place you. With computer planning you are delivered, if not exactly at your destination, at least close to it and likely pointed in the right direction. There will probably still be queues at the unload points to buffer for the elevator since the humans at surface level are less deterministic regarding getting on/off the elevator. It is also more fault tolerant in that the loss of one elevator has less impact than a traffic jam/ accident at a ramp.
I think I see what you are suggesting. Stacking in the vertical space during the journey down/ up? If the sled itself could be the elevator floor, they could queue up on the surface and then allow multiple vehicles to descend simultaneously. The sled reload would then cut into the efficiency.
I liked it overall. I think in the table showing the percentage of revenue per vehicle you should have at least added another row for other. I like it when percentage tables add up to 100%.
I miss the speed and traffic density thoughts on express lanes. On long runs eliminate the cushion.
Well, Project TIM is not Foxconn. Wisconsin got the plant apparently.
Trump to Announce Apple Supplier Foxconn Opening Wisconsin Plant
Meanwhile, not Project TIM, but smells the same...
And on that note, here's an update on Project TIM -
New news article from a Detroit based source is pretty insightful and provides an update on progress acquiring options - What is Project Tim?
City of Durand, MI now has a page outlining Project TIM - Project Tim Information - City of Durand
Updated Q&A - http://www.durandmi.com/Land Owners Forum Question Responses 061117.pdf
Updated "rough" project map.
All that said however, I'm still very hesitant to be confident this is Tesla given the "Project Tim Highlights", which strongly implies the project will generate large amounts of CO2 that could be liquefied for use in oil and gas wells. Or it could be to throw people off. Meh.
I discovered a "pro" FB group, in support of the project - Durand, MI Supporters Of Change And Jobs - Project TIM
(Group against can be found here - Greater Durand Area Citizens For Responsible Growth)
Picked up by SA yesterday - What is Project Tim? | Seeking Alpha
Finally, the early articles on Project TIM promised more details/decisions in 30-90 days. August 2nd will be about halfway between those estimates.
I can't get "They call me.....Tim" from Holy Grail out of my head.
Trump to Announce Apple Supplier Foxconn Opening Wisconsin Plant
Meanwhile, not Project TIM, but smells the same...
Rumors fly about mystery development in Hamilton County
And on that note, here's an update on Project TIM -
(Durand City Council Discusses ‘Project Tim’ - Independent Newspaper Group)
New news article from a Detroit based source is pretty insightful and provides an update on progress acquiring options - What is Project Tim?
As well as the apparent namesake (as mentioned earlier being named after someone coordinating it) -
City of Durand, MI now has a page outlining Project TIM - Project Tim Information - City of Durand
Updated Q&A - http://www.durandmi.com/Land Owners Forum Question Responses 061117.pdf
Case study blurb given in above Q&A is also interesting -
Updated "rough" project map.
All that said however, I'm still very hesitant to be confident this is Tesla given the "Project Tim Highlights", which strongly implies the project will generate large amounts of CO2 that could be liquefied for use in oil and gas wells. Or it could be to throw people off. Meh.
I discovered a "pro" FB group, in support of the project - Durand, MI Supporters Of Change And Jobs - Project TIM
(Group against can be found here - Greater Durand Area Citizens For Responsible Growth)
Picked up by SA yesterday - What is Project Tim? | Seeking Alpha
Finally, the early articles on Project TIM promised more details/decisions in 30-90 days. August 2nd will be about halfway between those estimates.
I can't get "They call me.....Tim" from Holy Grail out of my head.
All, I know this is not directly linked to TESLA stock price, however every now and again and especially during a long bull market it is good to be reminded that there can be downs as well as ups. Here is a nice article from Howard Marks, the founder of Oak Tree Capital, who has picked many downturns in the past.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
Of particular note is the below comment:
Super-Stocks
Bull markets are often marked by the anointment of a single group of stocks as “the greatest,” and the attractive legend surrounding this group is among the factors that support the bull move. When taken to the extreme – as it invariably is – this phenomenon satisfies some of the elements in a boom listed on page four, including:
I'm looking at you @ValueAnalyst
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
Of particular note is the below comment:
Super-Stocks
Bull markets are often marked by the anointment of a single group of stocks as “the greatest,” and the attractive legend surrounding this group is among the factors that support the bull move. When taken to the extreme – as it invariably is – this phenomenon satisfies some of the elements in a boom listed on page four, including:
- trust in a virtuous circle incapable of being interrupted;
- conviction that, given the companies’ fundamental merit, there’s no price too high for their stocks; and
- the willing suspension of disbelief that allows investors to extrapolate these positive views to infinity.
I'm looking at you @ValueAnalyst
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with your post, and I note that I do not believe there is no price too high for TSLA. In fact, i already have predetermined SP levels, based on fundamental analysis and financial modeling, that dictate my weighting in TSLA, including 0%.
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