2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[kbM3]

Sad but true. Although efficiency in this case would also convert to Range+Affordability, which will help sell.

Affordability in the sense of cost to charge as well as less initial cost from smaller battery. Plus recharge time, plus better handling.

 

[kbM3]

1) Bragging rights.

2) People that have never owned an EV, a large percentage of future M3 buyers, their first criteria they judge an EV by is range. That it is superior in every way except cargo entry opening and headroom will not stop many buyers from putting a plus next to Chevy Bolt and a big minus next to the M3 if the range is less.

3) I don't think buyers will forgo the 300 mile range M3 because there is a 240 mile range Model 3. And if they do and were seriously considering the bigger pack they will likely spend the money on higher margin options anyway.

People that have never owned an EV are not going to want to spend $38,000 for a sub compact hatchback.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Reddit rumor about FSD
[Unconfirmed employee boast] First FSD-specific feature coming tomorrow • r/teslamotors

 

[kbM3]

I was responding to kbM3 who implied it was a good idea to reducing the kWh in the base pack to reduce weight and increase efficiency.

That would improve affordability but reduce range.

I am not saying reducing the battery pack causes an increase in efficiency (Although it will help a little). I am saying that an increase in efficiency allows you to have a smaller battery pack for the same range.

 

[AlMc]

Reddit rumor about FSD
[Unconfirmed employee boast] First FSD-specific feature coming tomorrow • r/teslamotors

Thanks for the link. My opinion is it won't happen. Now as part of the '3 handover' they may show that feature and *maybe* it will be available on the delivered cars because these people (employees) will be allowed to beta the feature. However, if it appears overnight as an update to a non Tesla employee I will be shocked. Happy, but shocked.

 

[EinSV]

I was responding to kbM3 who implied it was a good idea to reducing the kWh in the base pack to reduce weight and increase efficiency.

That would improve affordability but reduce range.

OK. I was just agreeing with your point that efficiency in the abstract is not much of a selling point.

I also agree with you that Tesla won't reduce the base pack below 55 kWh or 60 kWh -- if they have been able to improve the efficiency they will use it to increase range/power rather than reduce the size of the battery.

This is a battle for hearts and minds: Elon wants to convincingly show the superiority of EVs over ICE and increased performance/range are paramount.

 

[EinSV]

Affordability in the sense of cost to charge as well as less initial cost from smaller battery. Plus recharge time, plus better handling.

I hear what you are saying but I don't think Tesla will go that direction -- if they have improved efficiency through reduced CD, improved drivetrain, reduced weight, etc. I think they will keep the battery size the same and increase range and improve performance.

 

[kbM3]

I hear what you are saying but I don't think Tesla will go that direction -- if they have improved efficiency through reduced CD, improved drivetrain, reduced weight, etc. I think they will keep the battery size the same and increase range and improve performance.

You get either reduced battery size or increased range (or theoretically you could have a mixture of the two). Basically, better efficiency is a great thing.

I believe 50 kWh was the original design goal. They were shooting for greater than 20% efficiency improvement over model S. They also stated that they were shooting for a 215 mile range. This incredible efficiency just basically enabled them to hit this target.

 

[EinSV]

You get either reduced battery size or increased range (or theoretically you could have a mixture of the two). Basically, better efficiency is a great thing.

I believe 50 kWh was the original design goal. They were shooting for greater than 20% efficiency improvement over model S. They also stated that they were shooting for a 215 mile range. This incredible efficiency just basically enabled them to hit this target.

We will find out tomorrow!

 

[Yuri_G]

1) Bragging rights.

2) People that have never owned an EV, a large percentage of future M3 buyers, their first criteria they judge an EV by is range. That it is superior in every way except cargo entry opening and headroom will not stop many buyers from putting a plus next to Chevy Bolt and a big minus next to the M3 if the range is less.

3) I don't think buyers will forgo the 300 mile range M3 because there is a 240 mile range Model 3. And if they do and were seriously considering the bigger pack they will likely spend the money on higher margin options anyway.

I'm thinking it will check all of the boxes at 75 kWh. Wouldn't be surprised if the 60/55 is a software locked 75, or the 75 is the battery size that gets 237 Wh/Mile. If not, the big battery will still be close to the Ionic for most efficient production car.

 

[EinSV]

Reddit rumor about FSD
[Unconfirmed employee boast] First FSD-specific feature coming tomorrow • r/teslamotors

I think at least some part of this is coming sooner than most people think. I am not holding my breath that it will come tomorrow but would be fantastic if it did!

 

[bdy0627]

If it did, I would expect that to have a meaningful effect on the share price short term. Definitely a surprise. Here's hoping

 

[RobStark]

People that have never owned an EV are not going to want to spend $38,000 for a sub compact hatchback.

They do in Europe. And in Japan. Any place with tiny streets and small parking spaces.

Unlike Tesla prices, MSRP is suggested. You get discounts on that figure.

Real world prices base Bolt will be cheaper than Model 3.

Keep making the Model 3 crappier and more people will make the switch.

No leather, no instrument cluster, non integrated infotainment screen. Make it 215 miles of range just adds to the gripes.

 

[RobStark]

I am not saying reducing the battery pack causes an increase in efficiency (Although it will help a little). I am saying that an increase in efficiency allows you to have a smaller battery pack for the same range.

Are you in favor of Tesla making a priority to hit 239 miles of range or not?

If you agree that Tesla should then we are on the same page.

 

[EinSV]

Thanks for the link. My opinion is it won't happen. Now as part of the '3 handover' they may show that feature and *maybe* it will be available on the delivered cars because these people (employees) will be allowed to beta the feature. However, if it appears overnight as an update to a non Tesla employee I will be shocked. Happy, but shocked.

I have been wondering for a while whether they could introduce the initial FSD features to only employees' cars. Would be a great way to go for many reasons but keeping from S/X owners might be a PR issue since employee cars are also customer cars.

Edit: in theory they could release FSD features under NDA to employee beta testers replacing the earlier beta testing program.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Elon Musk's SpaceX is now worth $21 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies

 

[zdriver]

Elon Musk's SpaceX is now worth $21 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies

This in theory would serve to further de-risk Elon's finances.
$21B * 54% = $11.34B, an increase of somewhere around $3.4B - $6B based on the valuations I heard of last year ranging from $10-15B.

Combine that with TSLA ownership of 22%, or $12.1B for a total of $27.1 billion.

Note this is significantly higher than Forbes' "real time" estimate of $15.9 billion... and would move Elon from 80th place on Forbes' list to #26.

 

[SBenson]

In a layman's perspective, which is pretty much everybody, Tesla will have to be far ahead of competition. Whether it's Bolt on range or Audi A8 on level 3 autonomy. I certainly feel/hope that all these leaks are true. How can Tesla be the most coveted brand if it's not way far ahead? I certainly hope that Tesla delivers some big items tomorrow.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Jul 28, 2017 at 4:08am UTC

Elon is a master teaser. I'm so excited that I can't sleep. It's gonna be super duper crazy tonight!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It baffles me that someone can look at this graph and not think to themselves, "how can this possibly be true?"