Its less about victory then it is about the market dictating the value of the product. The market has proven with the S that it does not want a nerfed vehicle. There are enough people, in the hundreds of thousands who do not want a 220 mile car with no features and are willing to pay more. Certainly some will get the cheaper version of the car, but not nearly enough to keep the ASP anywhere near $40K. Everything I have seen in terms of people talking about what they want, they all want the added range and features. 8000 people added info to model3info.com and there has been many articles and much analysis of this info that shows people want the extra features and expect to pay more (upwards of $52k on average if I recall). This is not a victory or a bias, its fact. To use your fake news analogy, You are fake news or FUD with the intent to drive a negative impression of the company to impact the stock value and my opinion is based on facts which is reflected in the stocks value and growth. To use your victory analogy, this would be the scoreboard and shorts are losing to the tune of 5B this year in mark to market paper losses. So best I can tell the score is roughly +25B longs.. -5B shorts. What it really comes down to is supply and demand. Tesla is making cars as fast as they can and selling everyone at a hyper premium which allows for very large margins. This will continue for at least the next 18 months and maybe, just maybe they might have to think about promoting the products, but I doubt it. BTW, this saves them about 6B compared to GM. I think Model 3 in the wild will double the demand side of the equation. This could be fake news or the opposite of FUD, but this guesstimate is based on good supporting information; for example, when the model X was coming out the reservations actually accelerated after the deliveries starting happen, even though it was fraught when several delays and multiple issues. This car has just recently finally hit a point where its on par with Model S in terms of order/delivery turn around time. Both the S/X are now mature products that will only become better, and more profitable. This fake news as you call it is a look at the future for the model 3. Even if there are issues, the company is not going to fold up shop just because things are hard. This product will go through the same process as the S/X and will be a mature product at some point. Is that point going to be this year? Probably not. But there is all but 0 doubt that it will be quicker then the X was.
As far as TE goes. You can read dozens it not hundreds of posts on people talking about their powerwall installs and you can read about SA and other bigger installs that are happening. TE is as much about being a profit center as it is about spreading R&D costs shared with car packs across more products and services. For example, Tesla can now build micro grids for its supercharging network and tutn it into a huge profit center, or just cut costs related to becoming gas station for all its cars. This is akin to GM opening 10,000 gas stations with 70% gross margins on the fuel (4c cost per KWh for utility grade solar + battery vs 20c on average cost per KWh for supercharging). Tesla does not need a single TE customer to make billions and become the biggest Utility in the world with cash flows that would boggle the mind. If I can do this simple math, I think Tesla can as well. Funding for Utility grade solar projects is not hard to get, this should be a no brainer for Tesla. Tesla will be on of the biggest consumers of electricity in the world and will also be delivering that electricity. Maybe its fake news or the opposite of FUD, no is saying it is a done deal and the work still has to be done, but the opportunity is there and no one else can do it because no one else Makes the car, panels and batteries.
Tesla network.. Sure its a dream at this point. But if autonomous driving is ever going to happen, if you do not put it into an EV it is absolutely pointless. This is because if you remove the driver, the biggest cost left besides the vehicle itself is the fuel. See TE above. Tesla will be paying 4c for 3-4 miles vs even the best hybrid which would be 5x as expensive. Maintenance costs and endurance also goes to the EV and this compounds as the ICEv hybrid or not gets older. Can Tesla pull it off? Dont know, but they sure can buy it someone if they do it before Tesla. Without the EVs and the charging network, its utterly pointless for anyone else to do it. I cannot stress enough how little value there is in an Autonomous driving world for ICEv. It exposes their weaknesses by magnifying them. Fake news? Maybe. But our job as investors is to try to find the future value based on expect revenue and income growth and Tesla looks to be positioned very well. I think the score board agrees with me and not you.. +$25B in Market cap vs -$5B in mark to market paper losses this year alone. That is what we call a blowout where I come from.
