1.6m annual production by 2023?!
6,000 Model 3's in 2017?
310,000 total cars delivered in 2018?
Osborne on both Model S AND Model X?
Model Y at end-2019?
Tesla Energy growth slower than Automotive?
$11B revenue in 2017?
Profitability in 2021 or later?
"Elon Musk stands to earn $1.6B in stock options if he can achieve 10 milestones by 2022" - didn't he already earn most of this incentive?
This model is insanely conservative, and he sounds very confused.
There's an extreme gap between what Tesla said it will do in 2018 and what even the most bullish sell-side analysts are projecting. A very wide gap, the size of which I've never seen before. This is really odd.
Gene Munster has decades of experience making estimates for companies like Apple. I followed him for a long time. His mind works.
His estimates are conservative, but things rarely go smooth as planned. Being a little bit conservative is better than being too optimistic then get caught off guard.
My estimates are in ( ):
1.6m annual production by 2023?! (my estimate is 4.1 million, love the simplified Model Y strategy. I am shooting for perfection execution. I know that rarely happens in real life, waiting for eggs on my face.)
6,000 Model 3's in 2017? (I can't pinpoint S curve, 5,000~20,000, but doesn't make a difference)
310,000 total cars delivered in 2018? (90,000 S+X; 250,000 Model 3)
Osborne on both Model S AND Model X? (Minimal, the effect will be countered by more Tesla awareness and near perfect autonomous feature)
Model Y at end-2019? (agree, R&D, buildings and production lines will take time, nothing is smooth in real life)
Tesla Energy growth slower than Automotive? (hard to tell, both will grow at high rate, battery supply will be the bottleneck)
$11B revenue in 2017? (mine is $10.8 B, assume the Model 3 S curve will delay a bit)
Profitability in 2021 or later? (agree.)
Anyway, it's exciting time. No wonder Elon said "I have never felt so good about Tesla". Me too.