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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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It sounds like you are talking about the GFs as big battery production factories. However as I understand it, Tesla is heading in the direction of complete vehicle factories.

A future GF will produce a complete vehicle. Maybe even several vehicles (considering the importance they assign geographical proximity to customers) .

Also, since the GFs will be producing complete vehicles, how much sense does it make to talk about the GFs in terms of GWh/yr production?

I don't think we know enough at this time to be able to make any kind of informed guesses.

We can not compare to GF1. Maybe to GF1 + Fremont combined.

I love all of your posts, so maybe I am just missing something, or I have a fundamental misunderstanding?

In theory the super factory that builds everything from cars to batteries to solar cells could actually be smaller then gf1 as long as it is focused on exactly what is required for the location. Europe might have several as will China and India. Similar to Tesla building another GF in the US, more then likely East coast or Midwest. I think the idea would be to limit transporting battery and drive units across Europe or the US. It gets expensive on the scale of millions of cars.
 
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Will TSLA ever distribute dividends? I think not. If they really do have the "billions and billions" in cash flow that @ValueAnalyst predicts, I would think the better use for that cash would be to start buying up TSLA shares...and then taking the whole thing private. Since it seems with that much free cash there's no need to go to the markets again for funding, then why would Elon bother with the company being public? Sucks for us, good for Tesla.
 
I'm going to add to the Model Y speculation. I think Tesla is going to name it the Model 4.... follows the Model 3.
Keeps the numerical naming and 4 follows 3 :rolleyes:.
And if write the number 4 with an open top it can look like a Y:
About that Model Y (official name) teaser
Thanks @TEG for the pics!

y4-png.239948

scrabble-y-jpg.239949
 
Will TSLA ever distribute dividends? I think not. If they really do have the "billions and billions" in cash flow that @ValueAnalyst predicts, I would think the better use for that cash would be to start buying up TSLA shares...and then taking the whole thing private. Since it seems with that much free cash there's no need to go to the markets again for funding, then why would Elon bother with the company being public? Sucks for us, good for Tesla.

Many utilities are private. Tesla will become the biggest single electric utility with super chargers alone. Do you might be right.

Edit: many that are public pay dividends. So maybe you are wrong.
 
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In theory the super factory that builds everything from cars to batteries to solar cells could actually be smaller then gf1 as long as it is focused on exactly what is required for the location. Europe might have several as will China and India. Similar to Tesla building another GF in the US, more then likely East coast or Midwest. I think the idea would be to limit transporting battery and drive units across Europe or the US. It gets expensive on the scale of millions of cars.
Could be a possibility (with the possibility exception of solar cells?). Not sure if the solar cells share enough commonality with the other products to make it worthwhile to include in the same factory or not?
 
Why? The X is based on the S that has normal doors and it has FWDs. So why couldn't a Y if it is based on the 3?
The Model 3 is the low-cost by virtue of ease of manufacturing platform. The Model Y was initially targeted to be streamlines even further (drastic reduction in wiring, elimination of 12V subsystem, etc...). Elon was "talked off the ledge" by his team for the sake of expediency and time-to-implement.

I don't see undertaking FWD for the Y as being inline with those goals. The X does indeed share a similar skateboard design with he S, yet the FWD's (as well as seats, ostensibly complicated by safety considerations as a result of the FWD's) made the X a much more complex endeavor.

If the Y is the "CUV for the masses" analog of the 3 being the sedan for the masses, I highly doubt FWD's are part of that equation.
 
Production Hell for months

Quality Hell for months

Ongoing reengineering for months to get quality and ease of manufacture under control.

In the end Tesla said they ended up modifying 70% of the Model S platform. That is why Elon originally said a sedan platform should be designed for a sedan and an SUV platform should be designed for an SUV.

Originally one of the main raison d'être for the FWD is access to the third row. Model Y will have no 3rd row.

Now, in order to get Model Y to market as quickly as possible with good quality and easy ramp up maximum transfer is the order of the day. Meaning use as much of Model 3 in Model Y. FWD don't fit those marching orders.
The additional point of there not being a 3rd row to necessitate them is another good point that leads me to think the Y won't be imbued with FWD's.
 
I disagreed with the entire idea that there's been any strategic mistake concerning the Model 3. Had you said they made a strategic mistake with the X; putting too much new tech into it, not having folding seats right from the start, even sticking to FWD - I wouldn't have disagreed, but I also wouldn't care one way or another since that's long since past and rectified.

YOU might not be angry with higher option pricing over longer wait period, but there's plenty of people over in the Model 3 threads that are in a tither over the lousy $1000 upcharge for colors other than black. Money matters to a lot of people. It's a great motivator good or bad. Good people will do bad things because of money, etc., etc., etc... You upcharge for options such that it becomes obvious to all that you're gouging the customer and that's a quick way to anger people. Nobody likes to get ripped off, especially when you do it to their face. Good to great value for money goes to brand loyalty and line ups out the door and around the block. You don't like the length of the line, go buy something else - but you won't, because there isn't anything else comparable. So, you'll wait in line if and until you can't wait longer and are forced to do something else. That's how a vast majority of people think. We are all taught as children to stand in line and wait our turn. A few impatient sorts will step out of the line, it happens. But you don't get a line up at all if you're not offering something that a lot of people want and feel is a good value for their hard earned dollar.

If you want to call strategic 'money' mistake then you MIGHT have an argument against Tesla for discounting the Model X base price and including more options in the S and X at no additional charge. Now that's giving away money right there. Nobody had to know they'd improved production efficiencies and thus were passing those savings onto the customers. I'd still have disagreed with you though. Doing that, along with the not upcharging in foreign markets etc... adds immeasurable brand trust, value and loyalty.

Never forget the ultimate goal of Tesla; accelerate the advent of sustainable energy and transport. If Tesla could offer the 3 for 25k, you bet your butt they'd do it. They want everyone on the planet driving electric yesterday, but not just driving.

Thank you for your feedback. I agree that Tesla will continue to reduce cost of transportation very substantially in the longer term, and I estimate that the quickest way to get there is to keep ASP high in 2017/18.

It sounds like you are talking about the GFs as big battery production factories. However as I understand it, Tesla is heading in the direction of complete vehicle factories.

A future GF will produce a complete vehicle. Maybe even several vehicles (considering the importance they assign geographical proximity to customers) .

Also, since the GFs will be producing complete vehicles, how much sense does it make to talk about the GFs in terms of GWh/yr production?

I don't think we know enough at this time to be able to make any kind of informed guesses.

We can not compare to GF1. Maybe to GF1 + Fremont combined.

I love all of your posts, so maybe I am just missing something, or I have a fundamental misunderstanding?

Thank you for the kind words. I agree that we need to know more about the nature of subsequent Gigafactories for the best estimate. Just trying to wrap my arms around an initial estimate with available info for now.

Will TSLA ever distribute dividends? I think not. If they really do have the "billions and billions" in cash flow that @ValueAnalyst predicts, I would think the better use for that cash would be to start buying up TSLA shares...and then taking the whole thing private. Since it seems with that much free cash there's no need to go to the markets again for funding, then why would Elon bother with the company being public? Sucks for us, good for Tesla.

Depends on share price.
 
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...there's plenty of people over in the Model 3 threads that are in a tither over the lousy $1000 upcharge for colors other than black
Color choice is completely optional aesthetics. Would they have preferred that Tesla offer the car only in black? If you don't want to pay the $1000, then get the car in black. It's not a difficult concept.

If the thinking is that the other colors don't really cost Tesla any more, then look at it this way -- Tesla is providing a $1000 discount for getting black. They lose money this way, but since they promised a $35K configuration there it is. And no, they're not going to provide a $1000 discount on every color, just on one they hope people don't want all that often.
 
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Some battery/cost numbers from Berenberg Bank.
Tesla Model 3 Excites Launch Event And Promises Profits

Didn't know that:

Quote:

Haissl said the battery technology used in the 220 mile version used a 45kWh battery, 5kWh less than expected.

“At our estimated battery cost of $146/kWh, this implies an additional $730 of gross profit per vehicle and a 50 basis point higher automotive gross margin than we forecast. The long range version adds 19kWh of battery capacity based on our calculations, which at a price of $9,000 implies an incremental gross margin of 69%,” Haissl said.

End quote.
 
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“At our estimated battery cost of $146/kWh, this implies an additional $730 of gross profit per vehicle and a 50 basis point higher automotive gross margin than we forecast. The long range version adds 19kWh of battery capacity based on our calculations, which at a price of $9,000 implies an incremental gross margin of 69%,” Haissl said.

If a Model 369 can get you 310 miles of EPA range, and if what Musk said is true(Model 3's kWh capacity is 75 kWh) then a Model 375D should get over 400 miles of range?

Talk about having demand levers in your back pocket.
 
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