2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Skryll]

I like a Tesla with 8000 cylinders!

Sorry can't resist: I am ok with 64 cylinders, but the 128 may be interesting too

 

[dennis]

Yeah this has nothing to do with the long or even medium term health of the company, and everything to do with how the Q3 deliveries, due Oct 3-ish will look. There will be a big optics difference between 1500 and 700, even if the *rate* was on track. I actually expect the M3's will not total 1500 and we will get an update on the rates and another lesson on how small shifts in the X-axis cause a big difference in the area under the curve. How the market takes that is a big question. On one hand, bears will call it a miss. On the other hand, it confirms that high volume production is real, and is started in earnest, which many analysts seem to say is impossible. How those balance is a real mystery to me.

And everybody forgets that Elon spoke of the expected production ramp, not delivery ramp. Delivery lags production and that lag will increase as Tesla delivers employee cars outside of California. So even if they achieve 1500 cars produced in September, they will deliver hundreds less.

 

[myusername]

isn't that much more than 100 days? Mar - Sep ?

wasn't that much money anyway.

 

[pGo]

So when is the Semi event?

Oct 26th!

 

[Zaxxon]

Semi reveal is Oct 26th.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla Semi unveil on Oct 26

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I have only begun to loosely track users' bias on this particular thread and I understand that @myusername does receive a lot of flack for his opinions, however right.... or wrong, they may be. But he does raise a fair point in that Tesla is selling this feature to customers with very little known about when it will actually happen. There could very well be people with 2/3 year leases that will *never* see a feature they paid for. And we all know that AP v2.0 hardware buyers basically missed out on an entire year of AP v1 parity, more if you count the cursed automatic wipers.

At the very very least, we should be asking the question, "Is it disingenuous for Tesla to offer this FSD feature?"

Now I know if something happens, those customers will be refunded that money, but still.....

All SUV sell the "off road" capability so are you counting the refund dollars when the customers never see a dirt road? This is nearly 99% we are taking about that stay on the pavement.

 

[Krugerrand]

Semi reveal is Oct 26th.

tentatively

Can we please not write it in stone as a fact? It's a tentative date per the Tweet.

 

[Zaxxon]

tentatively

Can we please not write it in stone as a fact? It's a tentative date per the Tweet.

Yes, tentatively, as of today, the date is October 26th. Better?

 

[myusername]

All SUV sell the "off road" capability so are you counting the refund dollars when the customers never see a dirt road? This is nearly 99% we are taking about that stay on the pavement.

but... um... i mean... you know what i'm going to say already... i mean... come on.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Go visit a sales gallery, their current (present) attitude is very.... Optimistic with regards to FSD. Although if you press the issue, the actual timeline behind to play out. In that, there is no timeline.

How about you go visit a dealership and tell me all the pure facts you get from a salesman. Yup never lies from the top ranked trusted professional there.

What do I care what they say at a gallery? It's in black and white on the website where one would order. Intelligent people aren't in the habit of going to multiple sources for the purpose of finding someone to give them the answer they 'wish' to hear.

What percentage would you say conducts business at a sales gallery as to online? You should care about sales gallery sales because that is where sales happen.

You seems to never had bought a used/new car outside of a Tesla at a gallery. Kudos!

 

[scaesare]

wasn't that much money anyway.

What's that Aesop's fable about the sour grapes?

 

[Alketi]

Thoughts on whether Tesla will partner with an existing truck manufacturer for the semi? And whether that would be even better received than if Tesla decides to go it alone?

 

[Hogfighter]

It was prompted by a post in another forum I frequent but thought would be interesting posting here as well.

The question in general was, how big is the gap between renewable energy generation and shifting towards 100% BEV.

The person who asked broke it down into 7 questions:

1. How many new cars are sold a year.
2. How far are the driven a year.
3. What are the average MPG.
4. Using the above, translate the energy requirement into TWh for new cars every year if ICE cars are banned.
5. How much TWh is being generated in a year now with renewable energy.
6. Divide 4 with 5 to see how much growth is needed to fill the gap.
7. Compare this growth with the current growth in renewable energy.

So here's what I found.

1. 80 million.
2. 10k miles.
3. This is methodologically incorrect as by converting gal of gasoline to kWh, you are ignoring the inefficiency of the engine. The correct way is to use EV fuel efficiency, kWh/100 mile. Model S is around 33, Leaf is around 30, Bolt is around 28. No official numbers for Model 3 yet but I suspect it be in the range of 28-30 (using 80 kWh/310 mi and applying a 87% factor to account for a difference. This 87% factor seems consistent for the other cars mentioned here. I'm also aware of the source code on Tesla website a few weeks ago having ~23 for this number. I have my doubts about it).
4. You get 240 TWh from demand. Accounting a 20% loss during electricity transportation and charging, the supply side requires 300 TWh.
5. Excluding nuclear energy due to controversies, in 2016 the OECD countries generated 2500 TWh with hydro and other renewables (mainly wind and solar). China generated 1470 TWh. Even not including other countries and excluding hydro, there's still 1400 TWh left on the table.
6. Seems irrelevant now.
7. Wind and solar is growing 20% per year, far exceeding growth in new cars sale.

I was surprised by this as I was expecting the current generation of renewable energy couldn't meet the demand if all new cars are all BEV. Of course, if all existing cars are BEV, we still have a gap to close. And electricity cannot be used exclusively for BEV. Still, it seems to be a brighter future ahead that would arrive sooner than I expected.

I sure wish I could remember an outstanding book on electrical energy consumption in the US, but the gist of it was that historically we've been wildly wrong in predicting electricity demand. No one in 1980 could have predicted the massive increase in consumption of electricity by the computer. With the advent of LEDs, we may actually need less power in the future. BEV recharging also has the ability to smooth demand. So I'm always skeptical when someone brings up future requirements.

 

[supratachophobia]

No idea and still don't care. The car always has to be ordered online whether the person is standing in a gallery or sitting at home and that's where the important information resides until final paperwork.

If you want to make excuses for uninformed/non-critical thinking buyers of expensive, full of new tech vehicles, be my guest but I won't encourage nor support them.

I guess there is always a myopic flipside to @myusername and his zeal on the other side of the coin.

 

[supratachophobia]

All SUV sell the "off road" capability so are you counting the refund dollars when the customers never see a dirt road? This is nearly 99% we are taking about that stay on the pavement.

Customers choice to take on or off road. Is it capable of going off road? Yes. Do they do it? No. Is APv2 capable of doing FSD? No.

 

[supratachophobia]

I sure wish I could remember an outstanding book on electrical energy consumption in the US, but the gist of it was that historically we've been wildly wrong in predicting electricity demand. No one in 1980 could have predicted the massive increase in consumption of electricity by the computer. With the advent of LEDs, we may actually need less power in the future. BEV recharging also has the ability to smooth demand. So I'm always skeptical when someone brings up future requirements.

I thought the common belief was that if all US ground transportation converted to electric overnight, it would be anywhere between 12-17% increase of demand on the grid?

 

[bdy0627]

Yes, tentatively, as of today, the date is October 26th. Better?

Wonder why the Semi reveal date is still tentative?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Customers choice to take on or off road. Is it capable of going off road? Yes. Do they do it? No. Is APv2 capable of doing FSD? No.

When I get stuck in a ditch is it time for my refund?

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess there is always a myopic flipside to @myusername and his zeal on the other side of the coin.

Sure, whatever you say. I guarantee that I'm a much happier person in general and to deal with. I'm also way less stressed when looking at TSLA SP on a day to day basis. All I see is unicorns and rainbows and farts that smell like cotton candy.