Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Papafox]

Have you looked at the data for total value of TSLA selling by shorts vs. %, and would the difference matter? Seems like low volumes have contributed to the >55% trend you have cited.

@CHGolferJim , you're talking apples, I'm talking oranges here.

I'm NOT talking about the short and hold transactions which make up the short interest numbers. Instead, I'm talking about the daily shorting by option sellers that gets covered either slowly in the afternoon or during the 4pm closing cross the same day. That daily shorting is what holds the stock price down. It's a matter of selling in a way that leads to other selling and then slowly covering in the afternoon and then finishing up the covering (buying) during the 4pm closing cross. It's using psychology to lower the stock price even if the shares the manipulator sells and then buys every day is the same number. If you watch TSLA trading long enough, it's pretty easy to tell when a manipulation is likely underway.

 

[chronopublish]

I also have wondered about what TMC was like during the share price flat-line years; was there a lot of bickering?

Yup. 2014-2019 was a brutal wait to have my investment thesis validated. And then it briefly gave back almost all gains again at the beginning of the pandemic.

 

[Thekiwi]

What incorrect assertions has he made?

What assertions weren’t incorrect is the easier question.

Basically all his tweets seemed to be generated from a pre-conceived notion that Apple is relying on OpenAi for its AI features, when in reality almost nothing was (he obviously didn’t watch the keynote).

If you want more detail, here:

Why is this wrong? Because Apple spent 40mins explaining all the features it was introducing that run on their own internally developed AI models, and which run on their own hardware, also designed by Apple. So right off the bat Elon stating “…Apple isn’t smart to make their own AI” is a blatantly incorrect statement. What’s more, the only time there is any “hand your data” moments is when a user is asked specifically if they would like to use ChatGPT to perform a query, at which point ChatGPT only gets that specific query in an anonymous manner, with no other data whatsoever.

Here is Elon getting “community noted” on it again in another post:

Elon eventually half acknowledges in a later reply to another post that he has it wrong, as you can see here where the original poster is explaining that ChatGPT is sandboxed into just the query with no other access (just like if you use the ChatGPT app), and so Elon complains ChatGPT access should have remained just as an app. (Which one could perhaps imply leads to what his actual beef is: that Apple is directing its users to ChatGPT, instead of letting other LLM chatbot companies compete at an app vs app level)

 

[dhanson865]

second. how does anyone know that they own more shares than anyone else around here? Or more Teslas? What is considering the most shares owned? What is # of shares is considered small potatoes around here?

I consider myself small potatoes here. Why? Because I can still sell stocks or other items of value and do so under 0% capital gains while still holding down a day job. I'm guessing most here think 5 figure salaries are small potatoes.

 

[MikeC]

I also have wondered about what TMC was like during the share price flat-line years; was there a lot of bickering?

We always had shorts and trolls for snippiness but IMO the bulls were a rock solid monolith during those years. There was no ideological Elon/woke divide - we just all saw the EV future plain as day and were continually exasperated that all these other people didn’t.

We mostly just mocked journalists like Broder and shorts like John Petersen, Santos, Chanos, Montana Skeptic, etc and analysts like Lovallo.

It felt like an us vs. them/the world and it’s unfortunate that it hasn’t been like that the last few years.

 

[Skipdd]

What assertions weren’t incorrect is the easier question.

Basically all his tweets seemed to be generated from a pre-conceived notion that Apple is relying on OpenAi for its AI features, when in reality almost nothing was (he obviously didn’t watch the keynote).

If you want more detail, here:

View attachment 1055616

Why is this wrong? Because Apple spent 40mins explaining all the features it was introducing that run on their own internally developed AI models, and which run on their own hardware, also designed by Apple. So right off the bat Elon stating “…Apple isn’t smart to make their own AI” is a blatantly incorrect statement. What’s more, the only time there is any “hand your data” moments is when a user is asked specifically if they would like to use ChatGPT to perform a query, at which point ChatGPT only gets that specific query in an anonymous manner, with no other data whatsoever.

Here is Elon getting “community noted” on it again in another post:

View attachment 1055636

Elon eventually half acknowledges in a later reply to another post that he has it wrong, as you can see here where the original poster is explaining that ChatGPT is sandboxed into just the query with no other access (just like if you use the ChatGPT app), and so Elon complains ChatGPT access should have remained just as an app. (Which one could perhaps imply leads to what his actual beef is: that Apple is directing its users to ChatGPT, instead of letting other LLM chatbot companies compete at an app vs app level)

View attachment 1055641

This was a good summary of it. One thing that I saw which is also interesting and cuts all ways (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Google - anybody running a cloud platform), was an analysis of Apple’s Private Cloud platform by a poster who “teaches cryptography at Johns Hopkins.” I will post the link, but basically he says it is a solid platform that is well thought out and is designed to protect users’s data even from Apple. Others in comments point out that Xai is using a third party platform for authentication, that is based in another country. I personally don’t have an issue with that, but we will need to understand the puts and takes of what Tesla’s cloud policies are, as investors, to weigh the value and risks as Tesla moves forward with FSD and Optimus.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800291897245835616

 

[AudubonB]

Just look at who is modding this forum. The lead mod has very much turned against Elon and is voting no. Another mod completely sold out of his position. Their position is very much not aligned with the majority of holders and unfortunately they are allowing a select few who are extremely negative to take over the forum.

I'm still hoping we return to a happy balance somewhere in the middle, but for now this forum is in the dumps

Do not discuss me without including that with the four Teslas in my garage and more shares of TSLA than you are likely to believe, and my declaration that I expect to keep that position for generations of descendants, that I very much have put my own experience where my money is. And regarding “I have turned against Mr Musk”? It is my belief that it is Mr Musk who has turned: he has turned against the best interests of the small shareholder; his words to the contrary are, to me, palpably…at odds with the truth.

 

[GatorMeat]

You do realize last out promised was met and done. There is only one way to be "last out", which is if stock goes to zero. He made the promise when bankruptcy was on the table. It was a "as the captain I will go down with the sinking ship" promise. If he maneuvered the sinking ship out of danger, are you saying he can't get off the ship ever because he promised to go down with the ship?

Elon didn't sell any shares until Tesla was cash flow positive and made multiple years of positive net income.

Dude has taken out 1,000x what he put in. Yet he promised to be last one out, to be raising money for Mars (yet he spend $40B on Twitter -worth $10B now). There is nothing for you to defend.

 

[heltok]

Odds of Elon's pay package passing has fallen, now down to 56%:

Polymarket | Elon Musk's $56bn Tesla pay package approved...

Polymarket | On June 13th, Tesla shareholders are scheduled to vote on the approval of a $56 billion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk (see: https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/3/24170368/elon-mus...

polymarket.com

Gonna be a nail biter! Everyone needs to vote!

 

[FlamingPIG]

I've been a quiet observer in this thread for the past five years and rarely post. In its earlier days, this thread was a beacon of insightful discussions and genuine passion for Tesla, marked by knowledgeable contributors and meaningful exchanges.

Recently, however, it seems to be cluttered with noise and occasional flashes of quality content. The thread often devolves into unproductive arguments, with trolls spreading misinformation freely. It's particularly frustrating to see a moderator who paradoxically champions Tesla as the "ascendant corporation of our time" while simultaneously disparaging the the key player who played a pivotal role in its success. Without the guy, there is no "ascendant corporation of our time" today. Moreover, it’s puzzling why some participants who have sold off their positions still linger here, only to disparage Tesla and the CEO who has been instrumental in the EV revolution.

This thread is in a pretty sad state now.

 

[ShareLofty]

Are the MVP's posting on any other platform? Would be good to know their opinion and whether they are voting YES or NO

Didn’t @TrendTrader007 sell all of his TSLA and load up on TSLL? In that case he wouldn’t have a vote.

 

[Buckminster]

I spend most of my time on X now but if you don't want to do that, other threads are available...

Wiki - Investor Thread Index

Artificial Intelligence
Tesla phone anyone?
4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors
Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations
FSD discussion
Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming
Off topic galore

And big one for this week:
Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

And many many more. The best discussions imo are when a smaller group have a proper back and forth on a specific topic with no other distractions and you can go back to it and read it quickly at a later time without difficulty. Factchecking was the best imo.

 

[kyzhk]

Odds of Elon's pay package passing has fallen, now down to 56%:

Polymarket | Elon Musk's $56bn Tesla pay package approved...

Polymarket | On June 13th, Tesla shareholders are scheduled to vote on the approval of a $56 billion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk (see: https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/3/24170368/elon-mus...

polymarket.com

Gonna be a nail biter! Everyone needs to vote!

I wouldn't put too much stock in the prediction from polymarket. I think its calculated based on how many buyers there are on each side (YES/NO)

And there's very little on the line looking at the top holders, we are talking about < $10k among these top holders.

For example, I can drop $1000 on Yes and boost the chance to 78%

or drop $4535.75 and boost the chance to 100%

 

[AudubonB]

I've been a quiet observer in this thread for the past five years and rarely post. In its earlier days, this thread was a beacon of insightful discussions and genuine passion for Tesla, marked by knowledgeable contributors and meaningful exchanges.

Recently, however, it seems to be cluttered with noise and occasional flashes of quality content. The thread often devolves into unproductive arguments, with trolls spreading misinformation freely. It's particularly frustrating to see a moderator who paradoxically champions Tesla as the "ascendant corporation of our time" while simultaneously disparaging the the key player who played a pivotal role in its success. Without the guy, there is no "ascendant corporation of our time" today. Moreover, it’s puzzling why some participants who have sold off their positions still linger here, only to disparage Tesla and the CEO who has been instrumental in the EV revolution.

This thread is in a pretty sad state now.

I am pleased to see that at least one other thinks JB Straubel - a truly talented and even-keeled person - would make a fine CEO.

Now, a question: those many of you who vociferously disagree with me: what do you make of Mr Musk agreeing with me: that he would prefer not to be CEO but solely the CTO? Or was that not to be taken seriously?

 

[Buckminster]

Next Tesla CEO/COO

 

[Singuy]

Dude has taken out 1,000x what he put in. Yet he promised to be last one out, to be raising money for Mars (yet he spend $40B on Twitter -worth $10B now). There is nothing for you to defend.

Can you please work out the logistics of being able to be "last out" without share price being at zero?

By definition, the desire for Tesla shares need to be zero by anyone besides Elon in order to for him to be the very last person. So the promise was not about never selling, but will never sell as Tesla heads for bankruptcy. This is the only scenario where it's possible to be "last out". When that's off the table, he can do whatever he wants because people like me understood what he met in the first place. You are free to think whatever.

 

[elasalle]

Next Tesla CEO/COO

Don’t play this game… basically saying Elon is not good enough at this moment?
It’s basically planting a seed…

 

[heltok]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the prediction from polymarket. I think its calculated based on how many buyers there are on each side (YES/NO)

And there's very little on the line looking at the top holders, we are talking about < $10k among these top holders.
For example, I can drop $1000 on Yes and boost the chance to 78%

Just a note of this. I remember back in the days when whales were betting $100k+ to manipulate the odds of Trump winning. Very quickly teams of sharks(many from the 2+2 forum) went in and bought all of those manipulating bets. The whales kept pouring in and the sharks were eating it up. Then in the end Trump beat the odds and won and the sharks lost massively. But there are many sharks willing to team up(to share the variance) and eat up any kind of incorrect odds. They are ready to risk millions of dollars for any value if it's lottery, betting etc.

If you think the odds are actually higher you can probably bet a few hundred dollars a few times and earn 10-20% return on a few thousands in a day. I would not say not to this if I believed that the odds were wildly off. So my guess bet is that the odds are actually correct...

 

[elasalle]

Do not discuss me without including that with the four Teslas in my garage and more shares of TSLA than you are likely to believe, and my declaration that I expect to keep that position for generations of descendants, that I very much have put my own experience where my money is. And regarding “I have turned against Mr Musk”? It is my belief that it is Mr Musk who has turned: he has turned against the best interests of the small shareholder; his words to the contrary are, to me, palpably…at odds with the truth.

For full transparency- do you also own TMC? Care to answer?
Sorry its an intriguing question for me past few days because seems you have super mod powers and you are untouchable?

Thanks in advance

 

[Buckminster]

Don’t play this game… basically saying Elon is not good enough at this moment?

I'm Elon's biggest fan. It's a thread for speculation and keeps discussion off this thread. That serves our common need no?