Excellent summary on how Tesla links all decisions to the larger mission. Worth a read even for old timers. Thx for posting.
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I agree with Audubon your figure for revenue is too high. For one thing people Supercharging won't be captive for 30 minutes two or three years down the line. Probably 10 - 15 minutes. Enough for a bathroom break, hitting a Starbucks (they'll pay well to rent space at the Supercharger Hospitality facilities) and to look at some displays of other Tesla products like Solar Roof and PowerWalls. They'll take some modest revenue but will be more concerned with making stops a quality experience and getting benefits from cross selling.
Your concern for these issues is admirable and serious efforts should be made to eliminate abuses. However be aware that over the coming 5 years, cobalt may cease to be required to produce high quality li ion batteries.
NanoOne is pioneering to improve the processing of raw materials used in cathodes. One of their cell designs does not need cobalt at all.
If they can do this then others will get there too in the interests of staying competitive in cost and performance.
Nano One is About to Change the Lithium Space
Wrt to the Jeffries note...
Actually, much of what is in the Jeffries note is positive. They basically say that Tesla is past the risk of failure and has built a decent short term moat. They don't believe that the coming EV competition is much of a threat in the shorter term... 3 to 5 years.
Strange that they make some basic mistakes. Like thinking the base Model 3 is 60 kWh and not 54 kWh. That plays into their cost difference, where they estimate it is $3,500. That means they estimate battery costs to be $175/kWh. The actual difference is 81 kWh versus 54 kWh, which is 27 kWh. At $160/kWh, that's $4,320. They likely have the overall battery costs at least 9% high... at just over $14.2k for the LR versus $13k assuming $160/kWh, which is only a 15% reduction from Model S/X pack costs. Guidance was around 30%, but say it is actually 25%, then its $142.5/kWh at the pack level. That would be $11.5k versus $14.2k which is then a pretty massive miss.
Interestingly, they don't believe competitors will really show up with volume until after 2020.
It is strange timing... before really knowing the Model 3 ramp, right before the Tesla semi announcement. The problem is they then use the Cummings concept truck... and Cummings is not the world leader in vehicular battery shipments, vehicular large BEV motor shipments, nor large inverter shipments. Basically, in all the important and most expensive parts of a battery electric vehicle where Tesla is the world leader, Cummins is not.
Jeffries credits Tesla with short term vertical integration and battery chemistry with NCA/graphite+Si, especially with the Gigafactory as a competitive advantage in short/medium term, but then takes it away in the longer term. They give too much credit to NMC 811... See this presentation from Umicore: http://cii-resource.com/cet/AABE-03-17/Presentations/BTMT/Levasseur_Stephane.pdf
The most likely next gen battery chemistry is NMC 622, but that is locked behind NCA+Si in Wh/kg and still has higher cobalt usage which means higher costs, especially as cobalt increases in price.
They also still think that the Gigafactory 1 is a 35 GWh cell production, 50 GWh battery pack production facility at full capacity. That's incompetent.
The autonomous driving section of their report is a mess. There's almost too much wrong to comment on... do they really not understand the state of Mobileye's REM? Apparently they do not understand.
I'll have to follow up with more later....
Actually, much of what is in the Jeffries note is positive. They basically say that Tesla is past the risk of failure and has built a decent short term moat. They don't believe that the coming EV competition is much of a threat in the shorter term... 3 to 5 years.
Strange that they make some basic mistakes. Like thinking the base Model 3 is 60 kWh and not 54 kWh. That plays into their cost difference, where they estimate it is $3,500. That means they estimate battery costs to be $175/kWh. The actual difference is 81 kWh versus 54 kWh, which is 27 kWh. At $160/kWh, that's $4,320. They likely have the overall battery costs at least 9% high... at just over $14.2k for the LR versus $13k assuming $160/kWh, which is only a 15% reduction from Model S/X pack costs. Guidance was around 30%, but say it is actually 25%, then its $142.5/kWh at the pack level. That would be $11.5k versus $14.2k which is then a pretty massive miss.
Interestingly, they don't believe competitors will really show up with volume until after 2020.
It is strange timing... before really knowing the Model 3 ramp, right before the Tesla semi announcement. The problem is they then use the Cummings concept truck... and Cummings is not the world leader in vehicular battery shipments, vehicular large BEV motor shipments, nor large inverter shipments. Basically, in all the important and most expensive parts of a battery electric vehicle where Tesla is the world leader, Cummins is not.
Jeffries credits Tesla with short term vertical integration and battery chemistry with NCA/graphite+Si, especially with the Gigafactory as a competitive advantage in short/medium term, but then takes it away in the longer term. They give too much credit to NMC 811... See this presentation from Umicore: http://cii-resource.com/cet/AABE-03-17/Presentations/BTMT/Levasseur_Stephane.pdf
The most likely next gen battery chemistry is NMC 622, but that is locked behind NCA+Si in Wh/kg and still has higher cobalt usage which means higher costs, especially as cobalt increases in price.
They also still think that the Gigafactory 1 is a 35 GWh cell production, 50 GWh battery pack production facility at full capacity. That's incompetent.
The autonomous driving section of their report is a mess. There's almost too much wrong to comment on... do they really not understand the state of Mobileye's REM? Apparently they do not understand.
I'll have to follow up with more later....
The problem seems to come from illegal mines
I checked out the Glencore website and these guys seems to be at least conscious, who knows
Supporting development in the DRC | Glencore
Reciprocity
Active Member
AP2 is done in my opinion. My statement only make sense if you understand/agree that AP2 is not FSD. The amount of overlap is very small. Outside of using Vision to see lane markings and the edges of roads, there is no other benefits to sinking more resources into AP2 after parity with AP1. All the features promised for EAP and FSD are not going to be delivered by the bastard child that is AP2 which is a band-aide work around for the terrible fall out with Mobileye. We have debated endlessly, but Tesla clearly stated that they wanted to use Mobileye in HW2 and where forced to recreate the functionality instead which became the bastard child we have today.
I am sure that Mr. Karpathy is working solely on EAP and FSD capabilities and probably more at a 50,000ft level then specific features at this point. FSD is basically 3 things.. hardware (CPU/GPU, cameras, radar and GPS/IMU), high def 3d maps (5-10cm accuracy) and what Karpathy is working which is the AI and neural networks. Tesla believes it has the right hardware, though it might need a minor upgrade for those who purchase FSD. I believe they have the right data to make the 3d maps accurate enough and updated frequently enough for FSD.
For more on 3d maps just listen to the latest Tesla Show (ep. 75) where they talk to the CEO of Lvl5, who are ex Tesla employees that make 3d maps using a cellphone mounted like a dash cam that is accurate to 35cm:
The Tesla Show – Podcast Episodes
Also some interesting info on the previous show about AI, but they didnt have an expert on the show like the above.
In terms of Teslas 3d maps vs Lvl5, I believe that Tesla adding radar data and the more refined car telemetry data than can be gleaned from a cell phone mounted to the windshield, gives them all the advantages that Lvl5 has with crowd sourcing but more accuracy. On a freeway, 13" might be ok, but in city driving I think you need to get down to the sub 10cm range while LIDAR is probably closer to 2-4cm, which is nice, but not necessary.
racer26
Active Member
MODERATOR INPUT:
I am going to leave up here this and the smattering of other Cobalt, etc., posts of this morning, rather than porting them over to the "Resources" thread. But - I also ma using this to urge the several (or more) of the regulars here who otherwise do not - to spend more time on some of the excellent other threads current on TMC.
Any Investors' Roundtable must needs be a magpie collection to have any lasting value; regardless, what the magpies bring to the collection is of worth only if it comes from outside sources, opinions and experts.
That said, I'm also tweaking a bit of what was posted here, for reasons that I hope are obvious. Thank you!
Re: Congolese Cobalt.
Tesla does indeed go out of their way to ensure that Congolese cobalt sourced from child labour does not end up in their cars.
There are a number of cobalt primary mines<==No. There are deposits, or occurrences. An axiomatically important difference in North America which are being investigated by a number of Canadian junior mining companies. I hold shares of several of them. Tesla has said many times they wish to source their raw materials as locally as possible. That would seem to make sense to me that they would prefer to source their cobalt from North American mines if they can.
I do wonder though - its a finite natural resource<==Ugh. And that is a red herring. Please strike from any resource conversation. Tesla is accounting for a significant share of the world's demand for it, and even though Tesla's supply chain is monitored carefully, I suspect Tesla still has the unintended side effect of meaning that other companies less able to monitor their own supply chains are getting more of the child labour cobalt, simply because Tesla is taking up so much of the non-child labour stuff.
I am going to leave up here this and the smattering of other Cobalt, etc., posts of this morning, rather than porting them over to the "Resources" thread. But - I also ma using this to urge the several (or more) of the regulars here who otherwise do not - to spend more time on some of the excellent other threads current on TMC.
Any Investors' Roundtable must needs be a magpie collection to have any lasting value; regardless, what the magpies bring to the collection is of worth only if it comes from outside sources, opinions and experts.
That said, I'm also tweaking a bit of what was posted here, for reasons that I hope are obvious. Thank you!
Re: Congolese Cobalt.
Tesla does indeed go out of their way to ensure that Congolese cobalt sourced from child labour does not end up in their cars.
There are a number of cobalt primary mines<==No. There are deposits, or occurrences. An axiomatically important difference in North America which are being investigated by a number of Canadian junior mining companies. I hold shares of several of them. Tesla has said many times they wish to source their raw materials as locally as possible. That would seem to make sense to me that they would prefer to source their cobalt from North American mines if they can.
I do wonder though - its a finite natural resource<==Ugh. And that is a red herring. Please strike from any resource conversation. Tesla is accounting for a significant share of the world's demand for it, and even though Tesla's supply chain is monitored carefully, I suspect Tesla still has the unintended side effect of meaning that other companies less able to monitor their own supply chains are getting more of the child labour cobalt, simply because Tesla is taking up so much of the non-child labour stuff.
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A recognized German Analyst calculates a Blue Sky Goal in 2025 of around $ 3000.
Thats 8 times of todays price in 7 years....
Here is the link in German: Tesla - bis 2025 Aktie bei 3.000 Dollar
Thats 8 times of todays price in 7 years....
Here is the link in German: Tesla - bis 2025 Aktie bei 3.000 Dollar
Good. This may mark the change in attitude which is necessary to get a really good autopilot implementation.
I should invite him to bring the cars to Ithaca for training. We've got almost every kind of insane, poorly designed road you can think of.
I do strongly supsect that Tesla is doing commercial Powerpack installations in Australia which they have not publicized. I'm not sure they'll ever publicize them. I suspect that the publicity decision is made by the customer. In some cases, the customer may have reason to keep quiet, particularly given the political climate going on in Australia. I don't suppose we'll find out how much they've done until it's in sufficient volume to show up in the financials.... or random people walk out behind a supermarket and say "Hey, isn't that a Tesla Powerpack" and put photos on the Internet.
In Germany the Tesla Partner Lichtblick is still waiting for the Powerpack to arrive. Orders are piling....
Gerardf
Active Member
And in Norway another great delivery day : 75 Model S/X delivered just today ! ....and counting 
Source Tesla Registration Stats
So far 751 this month. Specially strong MS deliveries.
June '17 was strong with 851, looks like we will beat that easily.
Source Tesla Registration Stats
So far 751 this month. Specially strong MS deliveries.
June '17 was strong with 851, looks like we will beat that easily.
Another TMCer that also happens to install solar in the mid Atlantic area has been 'certified' to install the Powerwall but still waiting for his first delivery from Tesla. Does not expect it for a couple more months.
Edit: horrible spelling
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Anyone already done a PW2 break down to see what's in there? Especially which cells. Panasonics or not? And which form factor?
Clearly 2.0 is done since they're on to 2.5.
Tesla has a new Autopilot ‘2.5’ hardware suite with more computing power for autonomous driving
Pedantry for the win.
I was commenting on form factor. Not old - current news.
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