2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dc_h]

yes... it has stopped people... "I just bought this car 18 months ago... but screw it... I'll just toss $10k out the window every 18 months because there's a new version!"

vs $100 out the window every 18 months for a phone. you think that's the same?

So the proper answer to iPhone innovation cycle is to buy a flip phone?
If Tesla's innovation cycle continues to outpace the rest of the industry my choice becomes worry about my Tesla could be outclassed by new features a week after I bought it, or buy a Cadillac or BMW and be outclassed before I get off the lot? I think most people will choose to get the best available car and stick with a smartphone over the flip phone. Enjoy your Razor phone and Pinto.

Ps. Good call on the trend. I think your TA has been pretty good. Your fundamental analysis not so much. If it hits 354 I'll buy in more.

 

[DurandalAI]

In few years I plan to use my 1st M3 in Tesla fleet and make $$, and with that I will buy another one for personal use ..

That's my plan. Buy first Model 3, use for a couple of years, and once full autonomous ride sharing works, I'll put it into the fleet, and then get myself a newer one, or a Model Y.

On a side-note, I'm going through TMC withdrawl symptoms! My new job has me so busy I can't spend time looking at the TMC investing forums, I've got the DTs!

 

[kenliles]

@tesla: RT @MotorTrend: Shocking winner of our latest, World's Greatest Drag Race 7! Maybe even #ludicrous? #WGDR7 World's Greatest Drag Race 7: Which Car Will Win? The Answer Might Shock You - Motor Trend

World's Greatest Drag Race 7: Which Car Will Win? The Answer Might Shock You - Motor Trend
"<
With this new venue, famous for launching traditional rockets one at a time, our seventh installment of WGDR is sure to blow past the mark of 100 million total views. We knew the Miata wouldn’t stand a chance, so to add a little intrigue we summoned the legendarily ludicrous Tesla Model S P100D to race in its place. Elon Musk is familiar with Vandenberg already; it’s been the launch pad for many a SpaceX rocket, and there’s a Supercharger on site.
>"

 

[dalalsid]

what?... how did you extrapolate that?... yes, cars get bought... but people don't throw life-cycle them at the same rate as phones... are you trying to debate this?

I didn't do the extrapolation. You did:

so now when do you buy an M3?... hold out until AP3.0 with the AMD chips?... or AP4.0 with whatever's next?

presenting that Tesla's are the only cars that come out with new features fast (which if you agree with then it puts Tesla in a very enviable position of being ahead of the rest of the industry and puts your views in line with the majority of the board)

 

[sub]

I love the "numerous Tesla killers will be here soon" out of one side of the mouth and out of the other "tesla innovates too fast so nobody will buy them". I normally don't see this nonsense but I was bored and needed a laugh so I unmasked the clowns for a moment.

 

[Reciprocity]

I have a new saying for all these 2020 Tesla killer EVs coming. All Pack no Cells.. as in all Hat no Cattle. Here is a perfect example:

Mercedes-Benz invests $1 billion to build its ‘EQ’ electric cars and batteries in the US

 

[TMSE]

I have a new saying for all these 2020 Tesla killer EVs coming. All Pack no Cells.. as in all Hat no Cattle. Here is a perfect example:

Mercedes-Benz invests $1 billion to build its ‘EQ’ electric cars and batteries in the US

Mercedes says they start production in ‘the beginning of the next decade’, not 2020. It is just so that they might as well start in 2021 or 2022.

 

[ggr]

Mercedes says they start production in ‘the beginning of the next decade’, not 2020. It is just so that they might as well start in 2021 or 2022.

Yeah, the next decade technically starts in 2021, just like the millennium didn't start until 2001.

 

[Reciprocity]

Mercedes says they start production in ‘the beginning of the next decade’, not 2020. It is just so that they might as well start in 2021 or 2022.

MB is actually going to deliver the car first in Europe in 2019 supposedly, but again... they are making packs and no clue where the cells in volume are going to come from. There are now like a hundred cars from dozens of companies slated for 2020+ which is why I called out that date. A handful are more aggressive and coming in the next couple of years but the magical year is still 2020 based on recent reports.

 

[mikevbf]

Not sure this has been shared yet:
Morgan Stanley Says EVs Will Reach Price Parity With ICE By 2025

 

[Bobfitz1]

That's my plan. Buy first Model 3, use for a couple of years, and once full autonomous ride sharing works, I'll put it into the fleet, and then get myself a newer one, or a Model Y.

On a side-note, I'm going through TMC withdrawl symptoms! My new job has me so busy I can't spend time looking at the TMC investing forums, I've got the DTs!

Great plan Al. My reservation # should come up in a few more months but I'll wait until they offer AWD to pull the trigger s nexo maybe Q2 or Q3 next year. I was thinking I'd partly fund it by selling a small number of shares. I'd expect SP to be at or over $500 by then.
However thanks to one of the champs on TMC I learned another option is to get a brokerage line of credit. I'm applying and will get an idea of the interest rate once I do. If it beats out a conventional auto loan, it would be great to borrow against Tesla shares knowing SP will be multiples higher once the loan they back is paid off.

 

[Bobfitz1]

MB is actually going to deliver the car first in Europe in 2019 supposedly, but again... they are making packs and no clue where the cells in volume are going to come from. There are now like a hundred cars from dozens of companies slated for 2020+ which is why I called out that date. A handful are more aggressive and coming in the next couple of years but the magical year is still 2020 based on recent reports.

I must be missing something. The Electrik article you linked says the investment will be for battery production as well as assembly. It quotes Daimler as saying: "Mercedes-Benz will continue to be on the cutting-edge of electric vehicle development and production. With production locations for EVs and batteries in Europe, China and, now, the U.S., our global network is ready for the era of electric vehicles."

How do you conclude they have no clue where the cells are going to come from? They are saying they will build them. However, as I posted earlier today, there is no way the amount they are investing will be able to produce competitively priced cells. Their EVs will cost thousands more than Tesla EVs when they come out just on the battery packs alone. So much for MB Tesla killers.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Not sure this has been shared yet:
Morgan Stanley Says EVs Will Reach Price Parity With ICE By 2025

The cluelessness of these WS investment firms is breathtaking. Morgan Stanley thinks they've moved bullish on EVs due to a price parity analysis that is already obsolete due to rapid reductions in cell and pack costs. Come 2025 they'll be like the cop saying "nothing to see here folks, just keep moving" as they pretend they knew better all the time.

“We have modelled the global car fleet out to 2050. We see global car sales growing by 50% to over 130 million a year, and expect battery electric vehicles to make up 80% of global sales by 2050. Looking at the global passenger car fleet as a whole, BEVs make up 7% of a growing fleet by 2030 in our base case, ”

 

[RobStark]

How do you conclude they have no clue where the cells are going to come from?

From reading Mercedes/Daimler press releases in the past, when they say "batteries" they mean battery packs not battery cells.

They are constructing battery pack manufacturing facilities with plans to buy cells in the open market.

 

[Bobfitz1]

From reading Mercedes/Daimler press releases in the past, when they say "batteries" they mean battery packs not battery cells.

They are constructing battery pack manufacturing facilities with plans to buy cells in the open market.

Thanks RobStark. That makes more sense given the sum they are investing. Their misuse of 'batteries' is so bad it makes it clear they are trying to avoid people asking how their EV plans are serious when they have left sourcing the cells indeterminate.

 

[Reciprocity]

From reading Mercedes/Daimler press releases in the past, when they say "batteries" they mean battery packs not battery cells.

They are constructing battery pack manufacturing facilities with plans to buy cells in the open market.

Bingo, I actually learned this from Rob and have seen it in writing in more in-depth articles since. I think the working hypothesis from manufacturers is that LG Chem, Samsung or some Chinese supplier is going to be making billions of cells for them at sub $100/KWh and flooding the market by 2020, so there is no need to bother with a supply of their own. Tesla would have loved to have some supplier able to do that, but they dont exist and wont in any real way for many years at a minimum because gigafactories take a long time and tons of cash to build. This is why so many think Tesla is losing money on every car. You would be losing money to if you had to spend $5B on factory to build battery cells before you could put them in a future car that doesnt exist yet (it does now of course, but is still low volume and ramping as I type.) Other manufactures have not taken those risks and thus they wont benefit from the rewards.

I also think its a bad idea to expect China to export large numbers of cells in next 5-10 years. They have legitimate issues with pollution that will severely stunt the growth of their country. As they become a bigger economy, people will start to demand breathable air, not to mention the lost of productivity from all the choking and dying and stuff. China needs every battery they can get. You could say they need every solar cell and wind turbine they can can make as well, but that the thing. They have a lot of that, but no way to store the energy for dark and windless hours of the day. They also have 24 million cars sold per year, about 7 more then here in the US. I would assume that not all 24M are highly efficient and clean. They have a real crisis on their hands and they will be using most of the batteries they make. I could be wrong, but I am high speculative that they will be exporting much. Now some Chinese companies might open manufacturing in other countries, but there becomes a huge issue of funding. Outside of China, they are not going to have the government to back them.

Now maybe im completely wrong and China does want to corner the market in batteries and thus dump as many as possible all over the world as possible. The problem with that theory is that you would see a lot of very large projects to build batteries in China. Like 20 gigafactory sized projects. I have not seen any real evidence of that as of yet, though I am not an analyst paid to look for this stuff. I do however follow very smart people on this forum and read just about everything so I feel pretty confident and this theory is not yet something I would agree with.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tangentially related--the Talks at Google series just put up an interview with Jason Calacanis (early Tesla investor, Elon Musk's friend, current Model 3 owner). It largely focuses on his thoughts on investing in / founding companies, but Tesla and Musk are both referenced multiple times.

 

[mikevbf]

The cluelessness of these WS investment firms is breathtaking. Morgan Stanley thinks they've moved bullish on EVs due to a price parity analysis that is already obsolete due to rapid reductions in cell and pack costs. Come 2025 they'll be like the cop saying "nothing to see here folks, just keep moving" as they pretend they knew better all the time.

“We have modelled the global car fleet out to 2050. We see global car sales growing by 50% to over 130 million a year, and expect battery electric vehicles to make up 80% of global sales by 2050. Looking at the global passenger car fleet as a whole, BEVs make up 7% of a growing fleet by 2030 in our base case, ”

For a related but different take on the acceleration of BEV adoption watch Tony Seba's youtube starting at about 36:30

[/QUOTE]

 

[RobStark]

Infiniti To Debut Performance EV At In Detroit This January, Arrives In 2019

 

[jhm]

Tesla gives an update on its strategy to avoid conflict minerals as pressure mounts on battery makers

A report by Amnesty International and Afrewatch published last year pointed directly to battery makers and their clients as fueling the conflicts. It named several automakers like Mercedes, VW and BYD, as well as several battery manufacturers known to supply automakers, like LG Chem (GM and Nissan) – but Tesla and its battery supplier, Panasonic, were spared.

Full Amnesty International and Afrewatch Report in Link

Tesla Conflict Mineral Full Disclosure in Link.

Thanks. This is such a frustrating situation. It horrendous, but incredibly difficult to steer clear of.