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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Maybe you haven't; I have. I've read shorts talking about potential black swan events, including Musk dying, practically giddy at the though.

Yes, even that. .
And pretty sure Elon was not referring to them as persons, but meant 'they' want to Kill Tesla, SpaceX and Electric cars. Very many who spend money & time in trying that.

BTW, I have reported that very 'unclassy' post of MMD. His sarcasm and troll-level increases even further, just when you thought it could not get higher. IMHO a post like that does not belong on a great forum like this one.

Edit : typo's
 
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One more (in-)famous short who reports a TSLA-Short loss.

Einhorn’s Q3 2017 letter reported that the fund returned 3.3% YTD (! !!). This is compared to a gain of 14.2% for the S&P 500 Index. In 2016, they were up 8.4%, compared to up 12% for the S&P 500 Index. Since inception in May 1996, the fund is up ~16% annualized net of fees and expenses.

Their short book lost money again this quarter: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shorts were disclosed as money losers.

Source:
Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q3 2017 Update - Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (NASDAQ:GLRE) | Seeking Alpha

Edit : Added source
 
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In the latest RollingStone interview, Elon said the following about Tesla short sellers:

"They're jerks who want us to die", "They're constantly trying to make up false rumors and amplify any negative rumors. It's a really big incentive to lie and attack my integrity. It's really awful. It's......hurtful".

We all know it well. In the past, I have never seen a company being attacked so fiercely for so long. In 2012, Tesla was the most shorted stock on NASDAQ with 50% float shorted. Today Tesla is still the most shorted company in the entire US stock market with around 9 billion dollars on the short side plus unspecified amount in Options. Short sellers are doing all sorts of attacks to drag and defeat Tesla, so they can make money. I don't rule out some attacks from special interest such as oil industry. I feel the majority of the attacks are from short sellers.

As investors, let's make sure we do the right things so the shorts can't take advantage of our accounts. I never sell my investment position. My trading only buy low sell high, then add profit to the investment position, only to defeat the shorts.
I got 42575 Mexican pesos bet against these jerks! The more they lose the more I’ll make
I would love to take their money!!!
Nothing like a good short squeeze
Do you feel lucky today shorts
Go ahead make my day
 
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There's a problem there: how does it make turns? The gap between the tractor and the trailer has to open up to make 90 degree (or sharper) street-corner turns; there's no other way to do it without running into buildings.

Convex trailer fronts with a radius around the kingpin articulating point. Convex tractor back to match.

Not difficult, or even a new concept.
 
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On reduced air gap between tractor and trailer:

A number of posts calling into consideration the noticeably small gap between the tractor cab and the trailer in the teaser photo of the Semi.

First, the turbulence caused by such a gap is a big item. Its existence reduces efficiency significantly; over the past thirty years a lot of attempts have addressed that fuel-eater.

Second, it was that which specifically drew my attention when I saw the teaser photo.

Now, at highway speeds, which is when airflow, drag and performance numbers all come into play, there are lim---> ∞ no sharp turns. The driver of a tractor-trailer combo can confidently negotiate his or her route with these segments very close to snug against each other.

When negotiating parking, backing up, cloverleaf exit ramps and so forth, however - all of which are performed at highly reduced speeds - there most definitely is a sharp angle between the tractor and its hauled trailer; one which, as neroden and others have pointed out, would wreak havoc upon the two segments.

The suggestion of ggr to articulate the trailer axle assemblies so that they turn with the drive axles is one way mechanically to alleviate that. It does, however, fail the simplicity test, the cost test and, most critically, the use-flexibility test. Although the European heavy-truck model does champion the unified cab-cargo model, the "semi-", aka tractor-trailer model used in NoAm, Australia and some other locations is supremely efficient in that it allows the same drive unit (the driver's tractor) to haul any of a variety of disparate trailers - all of which are "dumb", or, at the very least, mechanically simple.

My read on what the teaser photo shows is different. What I envision is one or a combination of the following two innovations: What Tesla has done is either (or both):
  • emplace a variable-length king pin such that the tractor draws the trailer closer or further away as a function of truck speed plus driver override selection
  • create a cab-entire cowling such that this entire element can slide back so that under appropriate circumstances (high-speed, low-curvature route) it diminishes the gap to the trailer. This also would be driver-selectable.
The former is a more robust approach: it could be achieved, inter alia, by having the king pin slide forward and back along the length of the rear portion of the tractor frame. Such a system is not completely new - one can find modern-day tractors with some of that ability. It also is of critical importance in long-distance hauling in that jurisdictions (usually state- and province-specific) have differing axle-length restrictions; the way a trucker can be legal is to alter that apparent tractor length in this fashion. Heretofore it is a cumbersome, time-chewing pain in the keister.

The latter is a more elegant approach but no examination of the photos yet to have appeared suggest the cab assembly has such a feature. Above, I wrote that you don't get sharp turns at highway speeds. The exception occurs during accident avoidance and other such hideosities. I cannot envision a variable-king pin method being able quickly enough to alter itself then. A movable cowling could also incorporate real flexibility so that it might be able to be pushed by the trailer without damage.

I think we'll know more in about twelve hours....

Edited to reduce drag confusion.
 
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I got 42575 Mexican pesos bet against these jerks! The more they lose the more I’ll make
I would love to take their money!!!
Nothing like a good short squeeze
Do you feel lucky today shorts
Go ahead make my day
Good luck to all the Lovely Longs today. Let's hope that tonight we watch on as Tesla opens up a can of major Whoop-ass. Anyone else imagining a modern version of the Trojan Horse, in the form of the Tesla Semi pulling up, and unloading an army of miniature alien dreadnoughts, moving faster that the human eye can see? Their biological components over-caffeinated, from the on board espresso machine; due to their extended stay in the tractor trailer, brought on by the product reveal's delay? (I guess I kind of feel this way waiting for my Model3 :mad:)
I guess we'd better hope for something a little bit less.
 
On reduced air gap between tractor and trailer:
...
Years ago my closest friend, now deceased, was a senior exec in the US DOT Bus and Truck Fuel Economy Program (I don't recall the exact name). Then there were several research programs attempting to develop seals between tractor and trailer(s). Those had already been developed in articulated busses and underground trains in Europe, but they were expensive and required semi-permanent connections. None of the US tests produced anything sufficiently robust and cheap so what came out of it was the fairings used today for cabs and trailers, but without any gap fillers. Back then fuel economy in tests would have risen by, IIRC, 25% or more at highway speeds if they'd found a solution.

Maybe Tesla has done that. It would nearly halve teh CD IIRC.

I'm recalling stuff from the early 1990's, mostly discussed during inebriated reunions, so evaluate accordingly.
 
My read on what the teaser photo shows is different. What I envision is one or a combination of the following two innovations: What Tesla has done is either (or both):
  • emplace a variable-length king pin such that the tractor draws the trailer closer or further away as a function of truck speed plus driver override selection
  • create a cab-entire cowling such that this entire element can slide back so that under appropriate circumstances (high-speed, low-curvature route) it diminishes the gap to the trailer. This also would be driver-selectable.

If I am understanding you correctly, I think the first option would have issues due to the change in axle loading as the pin is displaced.

Personally, I think the animation was a quick step rendering of the straight driving model without considering the real world physics.
<13 hours to go!
 
Mongo: axle-load limits is one of several reasons states' and provinces' rules vary.

Yar, there are difference in regions. What I'm saying is that there is difference between setting the pin position on a known load to a static position, vs needing to shift the loading to the rear axle to negotiate a turn or shift the load to the front axle (of the rear pair) to achieve aerodynamics. It seems like you would need to run under the max weight to ensure that the axles stays under their threshold. What displacement do you think is needed?

The other issue I see is the reaction time. If the tractor needs to preform a sudden avoidance maneuver, or if it manages to lose control and jack knife, would the pin movement mechanism move fast enough to prevent trailer damage (esp in a fully loaded trailer+ braking situation)?
 
Yep, and I've missed the editing window.

Thanks @JRP3
Example
m-walmart-advanced-vehicle-experience-wave-concept-truck-1.jpg
 
On reduced air gap between tractor and trailer:

...
Edited to reduce drag confusion.

We'll know, but I think we're making this too complicated. Shrouds that are flexible and need no special complications are entirely practical today. They were not cheap or durable 25 years ago. They need no fancy expensive stuff, just a semi-impermeable membrane that has a solid connection tractor-trailer. I saw those >25 years ago but they did not last. truckers have been conservative. Tesla will have done something like that. I'll wager a very expensive Tesla Supercharger coffee on that. (note: value limited to $3.75, redeemable only at Kettleman City during barista hours.)
 
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