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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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As you already wrote, yes in Central Tokyo there are almost zero house available to buy, compared to thousands of condominiums. Some wards (like a county in the US) require condo developers to install chargers, but that's not 100% enforced and not very common. There are two superchargers in Central Tokyo both at hotels, one two-stall and the other one-stall. Usually on weekends there are one hour wait to charge.
Well, this explains why there are a low *number of cars* in Tokyo, but not why a low *percentage of the few cars there are* are electric.
 
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Coast to coast demo drive is Exactly that, a demo. Last time I heard Elon give a timeline on when autonomous driving will hit customers he said it would be two years and that was this year.

For some reason I was thinking the demo was going to be more of a free advertising thing, like hey check out what we figured out, and then it would be made available to owners shortly after. I mean if they can do the demo safely then it should pretty much be ready for primetime. Also, IIRC, the two years quote was talking about full autonomy, and the coast to coast thing is just highways I think. I've got my fingers crossed that the coast to coast is pretty much ready and they do it as an electric car speed record type thing, and the download will be a Xmas present to owners. Or then again they might just wait till next year.

Hell no is my impression. I doubt they'll be able to make it by end of Q1 2018.

That would make for a pretty epic 2nd qtr if they get the m3 ramped up and self driving takes. huge step forward at the same time.
There's a complex set of lessons from this, part of which is: if you're going to found, fund, or run a company, make sure it's secure enough to survive deliberate sabotage attacks.
Especially if it's a disruptive company rather than just another lemonade stand.
 

Tesla pretty much admits that there were problems on the factory floor and says they took care of it by firing the responsible people.

Let's just say they think they took care of it. Everything I've heard about Tesla's internal processes does not reassure me that they've gotten all the right people fired, or that they haven't been tricked by sneaky bastards into firing the wrong people.

I am 100% sure managements' hearts are in the right place and that they're trying to do the right thing, but this is an area where they do not have a record of competence. Great engineers are not always great at sussing out the social situation.
 
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What I’m saying is that I think it’s quite improbable that the volume of negative false headlines Tesla receives is simply the general phenomena of click bait titles that would be directed at Tesla basically as much as any high attention public company (Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc).

I very strongly suspect that much like its outlier size short position, it has an outlier level of false negative “press.”
Well, this is pretty clear given the full time mudslingers on Seeking Alpha. I really wonder who's paying "Montana".

I don’t know of any other company on a course that will turn upside down 10% of the global economy if they succeed (fwiw, not saying Tesla will end up with 10% of the economy, just that it is on course to greatly accelerate the disruption of 10% of the global economy). I believe both outlier phenomena are due to that same unique (as far as I know) potential impact.

We could actually make a new thread and crowd source among us a little study for a few weeks charting the nature of Tesla “news” stories along with a few other companies that are intently followed. I quite suspect it would come close to knocking people’s brains into another dimension (semi reveal tweet reference, lols).
 
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To wade into the ownership vs. "car as a service" argument, I think the key question is really urban form. In rural areas, people will own cars; "car as a service" (aka taxi) is not economically viable due to low population density. In dense urban centers, nobody will own cars and people will walk and take the subway most of the time, with "car as a service" (aka taxi) as a specialized option for trips going in unusual directions; "car as a service" can't scale up to handle the high population desnsity.

In places in between, there will be something in between; perhaps "car as a service" is most likely to catch on in mid-density urban/suburban areas, with enough population density to support "car as a service" (aka taxi) but not enough to support significant mass transportation (subways etc.). (These areas may be able to support one train station on a route to the urban core, but not much more.)
 
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Well, this explains why there are a low *number of cars* in Tokyo, but not why a low *percentage of the few cars there are* are electric.
It's hard to charge in condos, as you already know.

Most smaller condos do not have a space to park on the ground, they are usually allocated to disabled. Other parking spaces are mechanical and no charging available. In my condo there are 77 families with 23 parking spaces, one is on the ground and I'm using it for my X, as it is too heavy and too wide for mechanical. There is some space in curb like entrance, we could request one quick charger there so families could use in turn. In the mechanical parking I see Audi RS6, BMW 5 and 6, Lexus LS600, Mercedes S and E and C classes.

Also to make things more complicated, parking spaces are owned by ALL condo owners - it's a public facility and condo owners rent the space From HOA.
 
There's a problem there: how does it make turns? The gap between the tractor and the trailer has to open up to make 90 degree (or sharper) street-corner turns; there's no other way to do it without running into buildings.
Easy, really, when you think about it. Just articulate all the tractor wheels. That's exactly what happens with a tractor/trailer... the very front wheels turn a lot, which effectively turns the wheels at the back of the tractor compared to the trailer. Hmmm... why didn't anyone else think of this?
 
Easy, really, when you think about it. Just articulate all the tractor wheels. That's exactly what happens with a tractor/trailer... the very front wheels turn a lot, which effectively turns the wheels at the back of the tractor compared to the trailer. Hmmm... why didn't anyone else think of this?
That was my immediate conclusion as well. However, looking at the video, I can't make sense of the movement of the trailer. Almost seems like even the trailer has articulated wheels. The semi-equaivalent of four-wheel steering would make it quite nimble. I could just be the way the video has been made, though, that makes the movement a bit odd.
 
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Thanks, that's one of the ~20 M3s staged in the Playa Vista parking garage spotted on Monday. It probably disproves the theory that Tesla is stashing almost finished cars missing some parts (like battery pack). It also likely disproves the theory that Tesla is stashing these M3 for some publicity stunt at the semi event. IMO it's better that they don't distract the semi event with too much M3 stuff anyway. If Elon really wants to throw in some good M3 news, he can simply tell us that the module issue is fixed and what the current production rate is, and/or open the configurator to non-Tesla employees.
 
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Thanks, that's one of the ~20 M3s staged in the Playa Vista parking garage spotted on Monday. It probably disproves the theory that Tesla is stashing almost finished cars missing some parts (like battery pack). It also likely disproves the theory that Tesla is stashing these M3 for some publicity stunt at the semi event. IMO it's better that they don't distract the semi event with too much M3 stuff anyway. If Elon really wants to throw in some good M3 news, he can simply tell us that the module issue is fixed and what the current production rate is, and/or open the configurator to non-Tesla employees.
Yeah, Automobile mag deleted the tweet and the article on the so called defective bunch of m3s
 
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Love love love. This is a good analysis.
It’s not perfect, but Bob Lutz is 85 years ago. He is enough of a Luddite to misunderstand new technology both from a positive and negative view.

FWIW, he has been credited for the Chevrolet Volt decision, back when he was insisting that only hybrids would work. What would have happened if he’d understood a BEV could be cheaper and better within the product useful life. He’d have been the sponsor of the Bolt then and GM would be industry leading now, while Leaf would have been better too and others would have stepped up.

Lutz was influential enough to have matched Elon but for derivative models that were cheap to launch and have wide appeal. Lutz from the beginning was after purely derivative solutions that would be enthusiastically received.

Now, as a dotard, he’s discovered that purely derivative no longer wins. Panic has set in. His decline is truly sad for all of us who’ve admired him and loved those derivative cars.
 
Well, this explains why there are a low *number of cars* in Tokyo, but not why a low *percentage of the few cars there are* are electric.

Most Tokyo parking is in automated park places. Ie, you drive your car on a sort of platform that is actually a large conveyor belt. After you exit the car, it gets hoisted in some kind of inaccessible parking structure. No ability to plug in at all. At a condo with a regular parking at least there is the technical possibility to install an outlet, not so with the parking spaces that are so common in larger Japanese cities. Being able to charge up over the night and always leave with a 'full tank' in the morning is one of the biggest advantages of electric over ice.
 
Most Tokyo parking is in automated park places. Ie, you drive your car on a sort of platform that is actually a large conveyor belt. After you exit the car, it gets hoisted in some kind of inaccessible parking structure. No ability to plug in at all. At a condo with a regular parking at least there is the technical possibility to install an outlet, not so with the parking spaces that are so common in larger Japanese cities. Being able to charge up over the night and always leave with a 'full tank' in the morning is one of the biggest advantages of electric over ice.
That might actually be a rare but good use case for inductive charging for vehicles.
 
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And the Automotive Industry sold 70M private cars in 2016. And is growing at a huge pace. Forecast for over 100M per year early in the 2020's.

Private cars are quite popular.

TAAS is going to displace Taxis, some trains/busses, drivers living in congested cities that pay over $200 per month in parking fees, and people who don't use their private car very much. Like retired people and college students.


Yes but the automotive industry exists since 100 years, there is dozens companies operating since multiple decades.

Uber was founded in 2009 .....
And it's growing at 50% a year.
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I understand about the issue of " changing your mind at the last minute ", and so it can't follow your calendar. But that's only an issue if there is not enough cars. If there is enough cars that, you just press a button and by the time you're out of the building there is a car waiting for you ... then it starts to be interesting right?

And about taking your stuff with you... what about home deliveries service like Amazon is currently doing ? You won't need to go shopping, you just press a button and it comes home.

 
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