2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[eloder]

I'm in NY, hw2 with delivery on 12/23. Still no notification of an update, but I live in Brooklyn and street park , charging not daily but every few days as needed during my commutes / supercharging. As I'm not connected to wifi regularly, is there a way to push the update through ? Little bummed as I've been waiting so eagerly for this update.

And you thought, they are generously promoting EVs for the environmental good
At that cheapest rate of $0.20/kwh and 3 miles/kwh for an average EV, this is more expensive than the gas costs of Toyota Prius with ~55 mpg. The Prius will cost you $2.60 for a gallon, while your utility will cost you $3.60+tax for the same 55 miles of driving.

Wait till there will be no off-peak because of more EVs. What's the rate for non-super off peak hours?

Quick FYI: 3 miles/kwh is only average for a Tesla.

My Leaf regularly pushes 4.3+ miles/kwh on highways and 5 miles/kwh with city driving in good conditions, and worst case scenarios (very cold winter weather on highway) is still over 3.5+ miles/kwh.

You can't compare a sports supercar to a Prius. Compare BMW i3 efficiency (most efficient EV out there) to a Prius and it'll be much harder to find close fuel costs.

The Model 3 will likely approach, or possibly even exceed Leaf efficiency levels due to better aerodynamics and a closer weight.

 

[Green Pete]

Does it come with suicide nets like the one in Shenzhen?

Been in Foxconns Shenzhen facility. It's not at all like media portrays it

 

[Waiting4M3]

No, Storey county is great already.


Because the MS-MX cost less to drive and maintain than a Prius.

I've owned a 2004 Prius since May 2004, I've spent $9270 at my local Toyota dealer from 2007 till now (1st 3 year services were free), so almost $1000 per year, and that doesn't include tires (I get my tires somewhere else). Looking forward to the Model 3.

 

[Waiting4M3]

the Prius is the gold standard when it comes to reliability of a non EV.

The car may be reliable, but the dealers still find ways to make you pay. See my post above, $9270 of maintenance on my 2004 Prius in 10 years

 

[Green Pete]

The car may be reliable, but the dealers still find ways to make you pay. See my post above, $9270 of maintenance on my 2004 Prius in 10 years

I have an 05 and never had any issues on it other than tires and oil.

 

[Fallenone]

Tesla quietly brings online its massive – biggest in the world – 80 MWh Powerpack station with Southern California Edison

Valuing TE at $0 is getting harder every day ...

That's about 32 m worth of revenue (~$400/kWh) at perhaps single digits gross margin. Same size of battery on cars would be about 1000 Model S/X or worth of 100 m worth of revenue at 25%+ gross margin. So the difference in gross profit would be about 10 fold.

Of course, this comparison is not that fair because the production of other parts of the car and assembly could be far behind of just producing these TE products. The batteries are not exactly the same either. But it's not that out of place to place ~0 value for TE.

 

[windgrins]

Does anyone have any idea how long it usually takes Tesla to get the actua EPA range numbers? I'm interested in how long before we see new numbers for the S100D from 335 EPA miles.

 

[dhrivnak]

No, Storey county is great already.


Because the MS-MX cost less to drive and maintain than a Prius.

I am not sure of that as we put 80,000 miles on our Prius and it went to the dealer once for the floor mat recall. I did my own oil changes and one tune up. All in all a VERY inexpensive car, less than 1 annual servicing for my Tesla. The Tesla is MUCH more fun to drive but not less costly.

PS the third owner of the Prius has put another 30,000 miles on and she had only $200 for a catyltic converter.

 

[vgrinshpun]

These are on pre-defined routes with comprehensive detailed mapping completed. Tesla's running in all sorts of environments that are not as well defined. The point is that speed of progress Tesla is making is much higher than Google. Their own prediction is that they will not get to Level 4 in 2019. Looks like Tesla will. Accumulating Autopilot miles at much higher rate and from much greater variety of roads and conditions is the key.

 

[mmd]

Battery upgrade: We had this discussion yesterday. In light of increasing utility rates, I think Tesla will be really loathe to upgrade battery packs that are in the cars grand fathered with unlimited supercharging. It will be pretty expensive for Tesla to provide free charge-ups for another many years. Tesla will really like to get those cars back in, and replace those with cars with limited supercharging.

 

[tander]

View attachment 211848

How many miles did they need for full autonomy, 6B?

 

[dc_h]

And you thought, they are generously promoting EVs for the environmental good
At that cheapest rate of $0.20/kwh and 3 miles/kwh for an average EV, this is more expensive than the gas costs of Toyota Prius with ~55 mpg. The Prius will cost you $2.60 for a gallon, while your utility will cost you $3.60+tax for the same 55 miles of driving.

Wait till there will be no off-peak because of more EVs. What's the rate for non-super off peak hours?

Get a roof!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Battery upgrade: We had this discussion yesterday. In light of increasing utility rates, I think Tesla will be really loathe to upgrade battery packs that are in the cars grand fathered with unlimited supercharging. It will be pretty expensive for Tesla to provide free charge-ups for another many years. Tesla will really like to get those cars back in, and replace those with cars with limited supercharging.

I follow supercharging statistics tidbits that come from Tesla for many years. The latest data they shared in one of their shareholder's letter is that the total supercharged driven miles are approximately 8% of total miles driven by Tesla cars. Assuming fleet average of 12k miles/year this works out to 960 supercharged miles/year for every car. Since pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan covers 400kWh, or approximately 1000 miles per year, the unlimited supercharging plan will cost Tesla exactly the same as pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan. The only difference is that pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan will reduce Tesla exposure to the abuses of supercharger system.

Your speculation is baseless.

 

[Off Shore]

So now you are accusing Gov Moonbeam of being a corporate shill?

I don't think California is utopia. I'm served by two utilities, both investor-owned, though on one of my islands we're exploring moving to a municipal form, thus I follow power costs a bit. So why DOES San Diego have such high costs?

 

[RobStark]

I don't think California is utopia. I'm served by two utilities, both investor-owned, though on one of my islands we're exploring moving to a municipal form, thus I follow power costs a bit. So why DOES San Diego have such high costs?

Never claimed nor implied CA was a utopia. Straw man.

Why do the other major two utilities in CA have much lower cost?

I don't follow CPUC that closely to know why there is such disparity.

We do have much higher cost in CA because we are investing in renewables and the utilities are allowed to pass on the cost to consumers. Californians are going to pay either as consumers or taxpayers. We as Californians voted for these policies especially so after giving Democrats super majorities in both Houses of the State Legislature.

CA utilities are spending money on BEV charging stations and are allowed to recover those cost by charging consumers more. Who pays and how much exactly is not mandated by the CPUC but utility proposals must be reasonable and fair to the CPUC commissioners in order to become policy.

 

[Green Pete]

How many miles did they need for full autonomy, 6B?

6 billion was worldwide regulatory approval. Nothing saying that states or countries cant come sooner.

That tweet makes it look as if he's positive m3 will be autonomous at launch no? That can't just be my optimistic reading of it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

6 billion was worldwide regulatory approval. Nothing saying that states or countries cant come sooner.

That tweet makes it look as if he's positive m3 will be autonomous at launch no? That can't just be my optimistic reading of it.

My conclusion as well.

 

[EinSV]

My conclusion as well.

IMO it doesn't necessarily mean autonomous driving. Could just mean, for example, useful on surface streets (not just highways), stopping at red lights, etc. but still with full driver oversight -- like AP/EAP now but in more conditions and with more capabilities.

 

[vgrinshpun]

IMO it doesn't necessarily mean autonomous driving. Could just mean, for example, useful on surface streets (not just highways), stopping at red lights, etc. but still with full driver oversight -- like AP/EAP now but in more conditions and with more capabilities.

Yes, agreed. Semi-autonomous would be a more precise definition. However, according to the tweet exchange in my original post FSD capability features will noticeably depart from the EAP features.

 

[racer26]

Battery upgrade: We had this discussion yesterday. In light of increasing utility rates, I think Tesla will be really loathe to upgrade battery packs that are in the cars grand fathered with unlimited supercharging. It will be pretty expensive for Tesla to provide free charge-ups for another many years. Tesla will really like to get those cars back in, and replace those with cars with limited supercharging.

I follow supercharging statistics tidbits that come from Tesla for many years. The latest data they shared in one of their shareholder's letter is that the total supercharged driven miles are approximately 8% of total miles driven by Tesla cars. Assuming fleet average of 12k miles/year this works out to 960 supercharged miles/year for every car. Since pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan covers 400kWh, or approximately 1000 miles per year, the unlimited supercharging plan will cost Tesla exactly the same as pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan. The only difference is that pay per use after the free yearly allotment plan will reduce Tesla exposure to the abuses of supercharger system.

Your speculation is baseless.

To top off what @vgrinshpun already covered: what increasing utility rates?

Utility rates are increasing now, yes. That won't last forever, or even really very long at all. Rooftop solar + battery storage is rapidly approaching cost parity with utility power. Simple supply and demand dictates one of two things will happen - utility power will have to reduce their price, or else people will simply switch to solar and battery and tell the utility to stuff it - since the supply of solar is functionally unlimited this is bounded only by the capital cost of installing the equipment, or the other possibility is that utility power cannot compete with solar on price and dies entirely.

For bonus points - I'm quite convinced that in many areas, the reliability factor of your own solar panels plus battery will be much greater than grid supplied power. I've never lived anywhere that didn't have relatively frequent power surges or brownouts, and once or twice a year having an hour long blackout due to a storm or whatever knocking down infrastructure. Electricity from Rooftop solar a la Tesla Roof should be relatively immune to storm-related blackouts. For what its worth, I have lived my whole life in fairly affluent suburbs of a major city in a first-world country. I'm certain that this experience is congruent with anyone in a similar situation, because no matter how good your power company is, at least some fraction of their infrastructure is exposed to mother nature in order to get the juice from the plant to your house.