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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Ruck,roe, Roadster osbourning M3 sales!

Not really.

Instead of waiting for dual motor upgrade and probably 1 additional year before delivery. I can get my model 3 in basic model that suit my daily commute needs while wait for 2020 when Roadster comes out to fulfill the need for speed and bing bing.

Lots of us have been planning for the arrival of EV. I've already sold the gasoline car and the delay of model 3 is making life quite inconvenient.
 
You mean South Korea?

No, I was joking:) While the windshield might, probably not withstand a nuclear attack, the north’s top generals could watch from the comfy front seat as the incoming rounds leveled every thing. The other side of my sad humor is that by draining the bank to purchase the trucks they would not have all the money to keep pushing their missile program. A peaceful solution using business model diplomacy bringing about peace in the region.

Oh yeah, the downside is they might have to sell their missile and nuc’s to fund new roads:-(
 
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Thanks for those links.
Inside the articles pretty much contains what I was thinking. No one wants to be 'first-mover'. They do not care about a flashy unveil, they want DATA. Hard numbers after months in real world operation. This is where the unveil of the semi, fell apart for me. Not enough hard data. Hence it is the really huge companies investing, (extremely minor in proportion to fleet size) to see if the numbers work, by working a few rigs.

This in my opinion is also why Walmart bought Ten for Canada, and 5 for the States. Winter. What is the range? Anyone who currently drives an electric notes there is a big difference between summer and winter range, even when the temperature is hovering around zero and not minus 20. For those around these parts long enough know Tesla has a history of not winter testing properly...the model S when it came out would not even defrost the windshield properly. Looking a the rig, I wonder how the front end will manage snow, as it seems so low?

Anyhow what they really need is a Tesla Semi Reveal Part 2. Entitled..
Data from 365 days of driving a diesel rig, vs a Tesla rig.
Have the rigs drive same route, same day, same loads, separated by enough distance there can be no drafting, but not enough for weather to change anything. Would cost probably hundreds of thousands for the experiment, (one diesel rig can cost over 150 000 per year to run, and buying it could cost that as well) but literally could result in hundreds of millions in sales/income.
 
Thanks for those links.
Inside the articles pretty much contains what I was thinking. No one wants to be 'first-mover'. They do not care about a flashy unveil, they want DATA. Hard numbers after months in real world operation. This is where the unveil of the semi, fell apart for me. Not enough hard data. Hence it is the really huge companies investing, (extremely minor in proportion to fleet size) to see if the numbers work, by working a few rigs.

This in my opinion is also why Walmart bought Ten for Canada, and 5 for the States. Winter. What is the range? Anyone who currently drives an electric notes there is a big difference between summer and winter range, even when the temperature is hovering around zero and not minus 20. For those around these parts long enough know Tesla has a history of not winter testing properly...the model S when it came out would not even defrost the windshield properly. Looking a the rig, I wonder how the front end will manage snow, as it seems so low?

Anyhow what they really need is a Tesla Semi Reveal Part 2. Entitled..
Data from 365 days of driving a diesel rig, vs a Tesla rig.
Have the rigs drive same route, same day, same loads, separated by enough distance there can be no drafting, but not enough for weather to change anything. Would cost probably hundreds of thousands for the experiment, (one diesel rig can cost over 150 000 per year to run, and buying it could cost that as well) but literally could result in hundreds of millions in sales/income.
I agree data is needed, but it only needs Tesla truck data. Big fleet operators already have sugar load of existing truck data.
 
Thanks for those links.
Inside the articles pretty much contains what I was thinking. No one wants to be 'first-mover'. They do not care about a flashy unveil, they want DATA. Hard numbers after months in real world operation. This is where the unveil of the semi, fell apart for me. Not enough hard data. Hence it is the really huge companies investing, (extremely minor in proportion to fleet size) to see if the numbers work, by working a few rigs.

This in my opinion is also why Walmart bought Ten for Canada, and 5 for the States. Winter. What is the range? Anyone who currently drives an electric notes there is a big difference between summer and winter range, even when the temperature is hovering around zero and not minus 20. For those around these parts long enough know Tesla has a history of not winter testing properly...the model S when it came out would not even defrost the windshield properly. Looking a the rig, I wonder how the front end will manage snow, as it seems so low?

Anyhow what they really need is a Tesla Semi Reveal Part 2. Entitled..
Data from 365 days of driving a diesel rig, vs a Tesla rig.
Have the rigs drive same route, same day, same loads, separated by enough distance there can be no drafting, but not enough for weather to change anything. Would cost probably hundreds of thousands for the experiment, (one diesel rig can cost over 150 000 per year to run, and buying it could cost that as well) but literally could result in hundreds of millions in sales/income.
The reveal event was just that a reveal. Any company seriously contemplating purchase would approach Tesla for the specific details they need. I expect hey have already done this. I now expect that they will want to do their own testing before increasing their stakes.
 
The reveal event was just that a reveal. Any company seriously contemplating purchase would approach Tesla for the specific details they need. I expect hey have already done this. I now expect that they will want to do their own testing before increasing their stakes.

There’s one customer for sure. A company that needs to transport a lot of goods from a facility near Reno to a facility near Fremont.
 
Brooks put up a video of his ride in the new Roadster. The Tesla rep made a point of mentioning that the car can do the launches all night. That seems to me to imply battery improvements where the max power is still obtainable even as the charge level declines.

Or maybe it's not drawing max amps from the battery when it's 100% charged so the level it needs can be sustained into a lower charge level.

Cramming 200 kWh into that size of car also implies some improved battery tech.
 
The $400k estimate I stated was for the price of the Semi, not just the pack. It wasn't clear, but I was following up to my own earlier question in the thread.

Can't edit, so bring on the disagrees I guess :( I would hope that it is painfully obvious that I am not operating under the assumption that the Model 3 is just a battery pack.

I don’t agree with your math but your estimate — $400K for the big battery Semi — would not surprise me.

That sounds high but because the operating cost of diesel fuel can be more than triple the operating cost of a diesel cab this could easily be compelling economically, especially for Semis that get heavy use.
 
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Batteries are a generic product. I envision a company (companies) with expertise in the field will build gigafactory-equivalents and sell the products to a wide range of auto companies. That makes more sense than each auto company developing the necessary skills and building its own battery factory.
Internal Combustion Engines are a generic product. I envision a company with expertise in the field will build one or more factories and sell the products to a wide range of auto companies -- wait, this isn't what's happening now.

The engine is the one "product" that current auto makers have kept in house and is the major differentiator between autos. Once they outsource the battery/drive train (as GM did with the Bolt) they have no IP left in the car. Sounds like a losing situation.
 
Internal Combustion Engines are a generic product. I envision a company with expertise in the field will build one or more factories and sell the products to a wide range of auto companies -- wait, this isn't what's happening now.

The engine is the one "product" that current auto makers have kept in house and is the major differentiator between autos. Once they outsource the battery/drive train (as GM did with the Bolt) they have no IP left in the car. Sounds like a losing situation.
Engines aren't generic. Companies produce them in a wide variety of physical sizes and power output. Better examples would be spark plugs, shock absorbers, lugnuts and tires.

Battery cells being made by battery manufacturers in huge factories makes a lot os sense. Duplication of this effort by dozens of car companies makes little sense. The car companies might still need facilities to assemble the cells to fit the (non-generic) configuration of the cars they build.
 
Red M3 sighting today going to work in the morning. My first look though it was going the opposite way. This is the second M3 sighting around Chicago but I’m not following all that close with the M3 sighting and VIN count. Good to know more and more are in the wild.

We need great M3 ramp news to really get the SP moving nothing else helps right now.
 
Not really.

Instead of waiting for dual motor upgrade and probably 1 additional year before delivery. I can get my model 3 in basic model that suit my daily commute needs while wait for 2020 when Roadster comes out to fulfill the need for speed and bing bing.

Lots of us have been planning for the arrival of EV. I've already sold the gasoline car and the delay of model 3 is making life quite inconvenient.
No, I was just parroting what the Fudsters would say.

That’s the reason we stretched and got the MS 60- now a 75.

If it fits your commute, look at a used Leaf. Our M3 will replace one.
 
No, I was just parroting what the Fudsters would say.

That’s the reason we stretched and got the MS 60- now a 75.

If it fits your commute, look at a used Leaf. Our M3 will replace one.

Don't know if it makes sense, but I don't like to compromise or settle for something other than what I want. "Don't like" is putting it pretty mildly. More like I'd die if I compromise.
 
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The way I look at it with tsla, there are really only 3 risks from a long-term outlook that I can think of. 1. gross incompetence from leadership, like making many huge mistakes and losing employee or customer trust, by huge mistake I mean batteries that explode after 1000 charge cycles, deciding that customers really need a gold plated toilet in every model s, putting the next gigafactory in N Korea etc. 2. major macro economic events, the kind that make 2008-09 seem like no big deal 3. disruption (not just competition), i.e. something that makes Teslas look the way Teslas makes gas cars look, something that pretty much makes electric cars obsolete. If you see any one of those things on the horizon, I would consider that a real risk, everything else is pretty much just normal growing pains.

The one risk I would add to your list is a combination of vehicle service and customer service.

If I could get Tesla's product design and changing the playing field / pushing the boundaries of what people think is possible behavior, with a more mature customer support / service experience (don't say you'll do something, and then not do it; don't say you'll follow up, and then not; learn that 97003 is a real US Postal Code and don't make me go through extra hoops to buy a car from you just because your database hasn't been updated with the US PO's list of postal codes in 2+ years (twice!! once for a car, once for an accessory order)).

Today it's not a problem that is creating demand problems, or otherwise constraining the company's ability to sell cars and generate revenue. As soon as anybody can become productive competitive, the customer service side is going to be a drag on Tesla's success.

(Long and strong today, no expectation of serious change in the next 3 years, and likely no change for 10 years. It's a fly in the ointment, but it's a real fly and it's there)
 
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