There's a significant problem with this analogy, self driving does not lend itself to simulation very well. It is a big headache to identify the bias introduced by training from simulation.Taking google's deep mind approach to playing GO, version 1 learned from other prior games played. Version 2 played against itself. Applying this to cars, the AI driver could drive against itself in a simulation-- and subsequently cut itself off...
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From Tesla.com, expected base price of 500 mile range Semi is $180k. 300 mile range for $150k.
Semi | Tesla
Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet
Holy sugar. Game over.
Semi | Tesla
Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet
Holy sugar. Game over.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
A difference of $30K for 200 miles of range. Since the ranges are quoted at fully loaded weight, I'm assuming it's close to the upper range of 2kwh/mi consumption that Tesla told us, so the delta is 400kwh of battery, which is $75/kwh
Edit: Compared to M3, Tesla charges almost $360/kwh ($9K for ~$25kwh extra) for LR vs SR.
Yuri_G
Member
Saw $400k being thrown around. Saw $250k quoted in an article. Crazy. Gigafactory production needs to ramp up yesterday.
skitown
Member
A difference of $30K for 200 miles of range. Since the ranges are quoted at fully loaded weight, I'm assuming it's close to the upper range of 2kwh/mi consumption that Tesla told us, so the delta is 400kwh of battery, which is $75/kwh
Edit: Compared to M3, Tesla charges almost $360/kwh ($9K for ~$25kwh extra) for LR vs SR.
Wow. At that pricing, it puts the battery cost (~14kWh) in a Powerwall 2 at about $1000.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yuri_G
Member
So: Elon and Tesla CAN do stuff on time!
annnnddd....on edit: The above, verbatim, was Jenny's immediate response to the news. Credit due; credit paid.
annnnddd....on edit: The above, verbatim, was Jenny's immediate response to the news. Credit due; credit paid.
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I don't know much about software, but if level 4 is months away, I wonder how much longer after that level 5 will be. If m3 hits 5k a week by March then Tesla's will drive over 4.5B miles next year which is a lot of shadow miles, and that's assuming m3 doesn't go above 5k a week.
1. Tesla's plan seems cheaper and more easy to implement once the software is ready
2. I wonder if it still has to be safer than a human or just as safe, something like that was mentioned in the conf call
3. If it has to be significantly safer, do other car makers have an obligation to put it on their cars? What about all the other cars on the road should they have to get aftermarket kits? Should Tesla just give the software away for free?
sundaymorning
Active Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Now the 20MWh of batteries that @Yggdrasill estimated for the Megacharger would only cost $1.5M instead of $4M, or even lower, consider the $75/kWh is what Tesla is charging semi customers.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Since Tesla is a public charity they should give away everything at cost or for free.
Nothing is a profit center.
Model S/X owners that paid $8k for FSD? Chumps. Toyota, Volkswagen,GM et al get it for free.
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mmd
Active Member
Come to think about it, Model X production started on time. Elon's stock vesting is standing proof.
Model 3 production also started on time; exactly on July 1st as promised. Elon got the first production car.
Same with solar roof. Elon got the first, JB got the second and it is in "pilot production" since then.
So the Model 3 LR should be only ~$2500 more than the short range? But Tesla is charging $9k extra? Doesn't seem like Tesla business ethics.
If there is such super duper demand for Semi, sane thing to do is to increase the semi price, not low ball the price to attract more deposit right now. Sounds like desperation to get money right now by selling the future.
Didn't someone report a price of $250k earlier, or am I mistaken?
That's certainly nice, but the Semi pricing does nothing to alleviate my margin concerns. At 150k-200k USD there's no way Tesla has good margin. If Tesla isn't going to make money on the Semi, and they aren't going to make money on the megachargers, where the hell will they make money?
(Maybe they'll simply axe the driver-full version of the Semi, and start their own driverless trucking company? That way they're the one benefiting from their Semi cost cutting...)
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Runarbt
Active Member
They estimate $200.000 in fuel savings and a 2-year payback periode! Damn.:-D
Would be kinda stupid to drive a diesel semi from now on, wouldnt it?
Tesla releases ‘expected price’ of semi electric truck: $150,000 to $200,000
"In my opinion, this is all hinting at a major battery breakthrough for cost and energy density that is enabling those new electric vehicles. I don’t see any other way that they can achieve anything close to what they are claiming based on current specs."
I'll have to agree with Fred. Assuming Tesla hasn't gone completely crazy, there has to be a battery breakthrough in the works.
"In my opinion, this is all hinting at a major battery breakthrough for cost and energy density that is enabling those new electric vehicles. I don’t see any other way that they can achieve anything close to what they are claiming based on current specs."
I'll have to agree with Fred. Assuming Tesla hasn't gone completely crazy, there has to be a battery breakthrough in the works.
One of the things that drew me into the Elon fan club was the very first "reveal" event where he met with many of the Roadster reservation holders and told them the bad news, that the car was going to be late, and you had to pay for all the options. He basically said that they would never produce a product without good margins, because that's not a good way to stay alive to change the world. So I think you'll find, when the numbers are in, that the Semi has perfectly fine margins.
bambam4171
Member
There is one thing you forget: The Model 3 Price was what Tesla expected the battery pricing to be at the time of introduction, everyone knew that the LR will be a better margin model as the 35k was the hard thing to do.
Now the Semi is of course priced with the battery prices start of 2020 in mind, maybe even mid 2020. So while I do understand that you have to do your utmost to make them look bad, you failed quite miserable there
I'm still having a hard time understanding how a Founders Series Semi costs 20% less ($50k) than a Founders Series Roadster but yet it has ~500% more battery capacity, 33% more motors, an air brake system, more AP cameras, 2x the number of touch screens, etc.
erthquake
Active Member
Possibly a lot more exotic materials in the Roadster to keep the weight down. Also, Tesla knows that there are a lot of people (10k/year?) happy to pay that price for the Roadster. They're not as cost-conscious as the Semi buyers, and they'll spend lots of money just to show off. What else are they going to spend that money on, Boring Co. hats?
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