2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[erthquake]

Lots of leaks today: 70kWh battery in the Model 3 mule, plant shutdown, Model 3 pilot manufacturing. Are these controlled leaks?

 

[mmd]

TSLA is overbought.
Tesla revs higher

BTW, is the confirmed shutdown the same dates that were rumored last week? Does anyone have the source of the rumor from last week?
Since some people here thought, 10 days are too few to install the model 3 press, I'm wondering about this.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Things might start to get a little less tame around here!

LMAO.....I get the joke.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

LMAO.....I get the joke.

IFFFF we get to the 52 week high ($269.34) tomorrow (Friday works, too) thanks to the Model 3 news and bust through that resistance and things are still tame around here may Elon help me...Come on people, we've been waiting 2.5 years for this! Act like you're in a Tesla Motors Club!!

 

[EinSV]

In honor of our recently departed friend @TrendTrader007, who I hope will invite us all to a blow-out party when he has made his millions (and I mean that sincerely):

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[sundaymorning]

Wind power employs 100,000 jobs. More than natural gas, coal, hydroelectric power plants

Wind power reaches 100K job milestone - " (it) now employs more workers than nuclear, natural gas, coal, or hydroelectric power plants." • /r/Futurology

 

[esk8mw]

This seems like a controlled leak aimed squarely at the heart of shorts. Will some of them finally give up?

Since TSLA often does the exact opposite of what you expect - it's like a Costanza stock - I think there's 2 hidden messages for bears to latch onto which could actually send TSLA down tomorrow: (i) they are still tweaking the design, thus M3 will be late and (ii) this is a hastily thrown together shiny thing to distract from bad financials in the Q4 report.

To be clear, I don't believe these messages, but it's the kind of thinking I expect to see from people doubling down on shorting a Falcon 9.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

This seems like a controlled leak aimed squarely at the heart of shorts. Will some of them finally give up?

Since TSLA often does the exact opposite of what you expect - it's like a Costanza stock - I think there's 2 hidden messages for bears to latch onto which could actually send TSLA down tomorrow: (i) they are still tweaking the design, thus M3 will be late and (ii) this is a hastily thrown together shiny thing to distract from bad financials in the Q4 report.

To be clear, I don't believe these messages, but it's the kind of thinking I expect to see from people doubling down on shorting a Falcon 9.

True. Some shorts wouldn't cover and would still claim the Model 3 was going to be late even if they got ran over by one later this year.

 

[Fallenone]

Wind power employs 100,000 jobs. More than natural gas, coal, hydroelectric power plants

Wind power reaches 100K job milestone - " (it) now employs more workers than nuclear, natural gas, coal, or hydroelectric power plants." • /r/Futurology

I hate to say this, but I don't think this is a badge on renewable, considering wind power only makes up 4.7% of the country's total electricity generation.

 

[MXWing]

True. Some shorts wouldn't cover and would still claim the Model 3 was going to be late even if they got ran over by one later this year.

And let's blame it on autopilot too.

Kill 2 birds with one stone.

 

[MP3Mike]

So what is the "proper" way for a long to deal with a short squeeze when it happens? Do you just hold on to your shares and let things rip, or should you watch for a peak sell, and then buy back when the price comes back to Earth? (Will there be a high peak and then a return to normal, or is it likely to stay much higher after a short squeeze?)

 

[AcesDealt]

We can infer that Tesla is not trying to pus


And let's blame it on autopilot too.

Kill 2 birds with one stone.

I'm not sure you can blame it on autopilot when it is 'learning' from how the rest of us drive. 2 points!

 

[traxila]

I hate to say this, but I don't think this is a badge on renewable, considering wind power only makes up 4.7% of the country's total electricity generation.

Isn't this about the build out? If it were to ever mature would you not get a more reasonable job to energy ratio? I would like to see a ratio of job to price per kWh. That would be telling.

 

[jhm]

Can someone get the point across to Tesla that I want a brilliant GREEN color! Since I am waffling between the X and 3; those two cars need GREEN added to the options. I was not born and raised in a box ~ our children claim that both my wife and I were dropped of from outer space

How many cars do we need to pass on the road that are White, Gray (already own), Silver, Black, Blue (already own), and red (been there/done that). I just want another choice

I hope this does not alter your trying to quarterback the M3 price

Here's what you want, Outrageous Kandy with gold trim by Presidential Auto Source. I drive by this shop every day in Decatur, GA.

 

[KLC13]

Yes, speculation about Feb 20 production of pilot Model 3s is likely the reason for the after-hours jump. Maybe this development explains the late timing of Q4 ER. I suspect lots of shorts will be itching to find a way out soon.

I think Feb 22nd is when we'll know if there is going to be a short squeeze or not.

I suspect a lot of shorts will hold out for 2 more weeks in hopes of a bad earnings report and subsequent bashing by Wall St. But Elon is already spoiling those plans by this rumoured Model 3 pilot production.

 

[MXWing]

I'm committed to going long on TSLA but knowing Elon time would not think the Model 3 would come out this year. If Model 3 misses I just buy the resulting dips and ride on to 2018 and beyond.

What is an investor to do if he Model 3 actually delivers. Is 260 too cheap? Is 300 too cheap? When is it too expensive if a massive dip does not happen.

What P/E would it take to turn a bull to a bear?

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Fremont shutdown is now officially confirmed by Tesla: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

 

[schonelucht]

"What better way to stoke the fan base and Wall Street than to wheel out pre-production models" ahead of the earnings announcement, said one person familiar with Tesla's plans who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Exclusive: Tesla aims to start pilot production of Model 3 cars on February 20 - sources - Reuters
Exclusive: Tesla aims to start pilot production of Model 3 cars on February 20 - sources

The article quotes Tesla that the pause is to bring up the capacity of the paint shop. Yet I remember that there was some brooha with the shorts last year about the paint shop not having enough capacity which ended when Fred from Electrek got Tesla on record that their paint shop was not the limiting factor? Trying to find the article about it but my google foo is very weak at this point.

 

[dandurston]

For those interested: Europe finals are in, January 2017 is up 186% Y/Y (776 -> 1445).

That's up 86%, not 186%.

If they sold 776 cars last year, and then another 776 this year, you wouldn't say they're up 100%.

 

[mrdoubleb]

That's up 86%, not 186%.

If they sold 776 cars last year, and then another 776 this year, you wouldn't say they're up 100%.

Correct. Let me re-phrase: January 2017 sales were at 186% of January 2016, an 86% increase.